Indystorm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm holding out for some backdoor deformation snow! You just might get it, especially if this storm retrogrades westward. LOT is even talking about the possiblility of lake effect rain mixed with snow in ne IL and nw IN Sunday night into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Time to go into survivalist mode............. After the great Derecho of '12, we're all well-primed around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z NAM shows 2m temps getting pretty close freezing later Sunday evening, with the rest of the column seemingly below freezing. But it's the NAM and it's October. I think the futher N/E the landfall of Sandy is, the better the chances of cold air staying deep here. However, based on how consistent the EURO is with a Delmarva-ish landfall, and based on the fact that the GFS seems to be trending slowly in that direction, I'm not holding my breath for anything notable. Maybe a few sloppy mood flakes? BTW nice to hear from you again T4. What has it been? 8 months? I've been busy, but I still manage to have time during the day to check this board. I'm looking forward to a much better winter this season compared to last. As for the track of Sandy, I won't be surprised if the track is like the EURO. Reading the New England storm thread, north Atlantic blocking is very strong and that will likely prevent Sandy from tracking north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I've been busy, but I still manage to have time during the day to check this board. I'm looking forward to a much better winter this season compared to last. As for the track of Sandy, I won't be surprised if the track is like the EURO. Reading the New England storm thread, north Atlantic blocking is very strong and that will likely prevent Sandy from tracking north of NYC. I know its early but what do you guys think of rainfall potential with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 00z GGEM is a near apocalypse...955 mb over DC with a 1034 mb high in the northern Plains at 192 hours lol. Probably a huge wind machine. Could be fun to watch the models try to handle the mid latitude features in combination with this TC or hybrid system. GGEM says: Who's laughing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I know its early but what do you guys think of rainfall potential with this? Based on current model projections, at least 2" of rain is a good bet. However, I think wind will be the bigger story. Some models have close to tropical storm force winds for our area with the potenial for even stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Based on current model projections, at least 2" of rain is a good bet. However, I think wind will be the bigger story. Some models have close to tropical storm force winds for our area with the potenial for even stronger winds. Ok thanks. Im deciding whether or not to cut a big oak tree in my backyard down because in other wind storms some of the smaller branches have fallen down but I'm worried that it may fall on my house. Wouldn't be good if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Henry Margusity of accuweather is opining that Sandy will miss the mid and north atlantic and simply go out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Henry Margusity of accuweather is opining that Sandy will miss the mid and north atlantic and simply go out to sea He can't be serious can he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Henry Margusity of accuweather is opining that Sandy will miss the mid and north atlantic and simply go out to sea According to his FB page that's not the case anymore. He caved later than any global model did though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Latest NHC outlook brings a 5-10% of chance of sustained tropical storm force winds to extreme eastern Ohio within the next five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Latest NHC outlook brings a 5-10% of chance of sustained tropical storm force winds to extreme eastern Ohio within the next five days. Lol way to post it as soon as there's a couple pixels in our region. I'm sure that map will look more promising in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol, HUGE spread in the 84 hour position of Sandy on the 00z GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS and NAM really swing Sandy out to sea still. NAM is showing Sandy doing a loop de loop east of Florida. In the end the GFS runs it parallel of LI and into New York Harbor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS and NAM really swing Sandy out to sea still. NAM is showing Sandy doing a loop de loop east of Florida. In the end the GFS runs it parallel of LI and into New York Harbor! GGEM swings it way out also now. The server may explode tonight with people wanting to see the 00z EURO lol In the end though, the GGEM whips back into the Northeast and still provides many of us quite a bit of wind and maybe a bit of precip depending on how much retrogression occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM swings it way out also now. The server may explode tonight with people wanting to see the 00z EURO lol In the end though, the GGEM whips back into the Northeast and still provides many of us quite a bit of wind and maybe a bit of precip depending on how much retrogression occurs. Yeah really. I think the block strength in the beginning allows Sandy to swing out, but then it says not so fast - and pushes it back to the coast. I don't think it will swing out that far. Still over 4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I know that the precipitation threat is low, BUT what our everyones thoughts on the wind threat this far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro sticks to it's guns....Significant wind storm for many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ahhh if this was only December...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 EURO slams the Delmarva near Ocean City. ~930 mb at LF. All within 84 90 hours! @ Patrick, I think if the storm drives into like western PA. Much of our subforum could be seeing tropical storm gusts. ...Snowing from Detroit to the Ohio River by 96 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro swings precip farther west on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro swings precip farther west on this run. How far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 EURO slams the Delmarva near Ocean City. ~930 mb at LF. All within 84 90 hours! @ Patrick, I think if the storm drives into like western PA. Much of our subforum could be seeing tropical storm gusts. Wind potential will depend on various factors but I'd agree with that. Areas especially on/near water (downwind) could have a period of gusts >70 mph if some of these solutions were to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 How far west? Much of IN gets > .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Quite a stripe of snow at 108 hours, I-75 corridor. Back edge reaches this far west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wind potential will depend on various factors but I'd agree with that. Areas especially on/near water (downwind) could have a period of gusts >70 mph if some of these solutions were to pan out. So next week looks cold, windy, and we may even see our first flakes! Well atleast according to the EURO and NOGAPS. If the EURO panned out I bet 50-60mph gust may be possible for most of Northern and Central Indiana. Similar to a few weekends ago but winds straight out of the north this time. I have no idea how to forecast lake effect though, any thoughts on it yet? It seems a few runs tonight have shown a decent band coming straight off of LM. Im assuming it would be rain, but maybe some flakes mixed in with any heavier echoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If I had to bet, regarding differences in GGEM, GFS, and Euro.... Even with the Euro consistency, I'd bet we see the euro begin to cave to the east and north solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Millions of kids we be disappointed on Halloween night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If I had to bet, regarding differences in GGEM, GFS, and Euro.... Even with the Euro consistency, I'd bet we see the euro begin to cave to the east and north solutions. Lol. The ukie and the gefs made steps towards the ecm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 HPC forecasting 4 to 5 inches of rain for far eastern Ohio over the next five days. I have to imagine we'd be talking about significant flooding if this were to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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