Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think Sandy will be captured no doubt now. Whether it hits Maine or Delaware or anywhere in between is up for grabs 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think Sandy will be captured no doubt now. Whether it hits Maine or Delaware or anywhere in between is up for grabs 5 days out. nah...trend is clearly south and keying in pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 nah...trend is clearly south and keying in pretty good This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro has a 70+ kt 850 mb wind max from SE MI into OH at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro maps in the New York Metro forum show a much further south hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 nah...trend is clearly south and keying in pretty good If I were to pick a state for "landfall" I think it would be NJ. Looks like most of those are south of Boston at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro has a 70+ kt 850 mb wind max from SE MI into OH at 120 hours. Could have trouble mixing down to full extent but dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Nice retro feel to the forum right now. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Nice retro feel to the forum right now. Sheesh. you know we're in for many more crashes with the storm of the century heading for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Could have trouble mixing down to full extent but dang Ryan Maue tweeted earlier to expect tropical storm force winds all the way to the Great Lakes due to the pressure gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Could have trouble mixing down to full extent but dang With the high to the West the Great Lakes actually are going to have a pretty strong pressure gradient, would not be shocked to see iso gusts to 65+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 you know we're in for many more crashes with the storm of the century heading for NYC Maybe half the board will lose power if we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Maybe half the board will lose power if we get lucky. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I can't wait to see the waves on Lake Erie! Regardless of track, lake temps will continue to crater faster than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 hmmm, I might have to start watching this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I can't wait to see the waves on Lake Erie! Regardless of track, lake temps will continue to crater faster than normal. According to Osumetstud, the 12z Euro has sustained winds of 40-50 kts over Lake Erie. Obviously depends on final track but it would take a pretty big shift for that area to avoid strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 According to Osumetstud, the 12z Euro has sustained winds of 40-50 kts over Lake Erie. Obviously depends on final track but it would take a pretty big shift for that area to avoid strong winds. That would produce some serious wave action here. With a NE'ly wind, that would be pretty damaging here along the coastline. Most of the oaks have all their leaves still, so falling trees will be a big concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halifax, NS has issued a statement for Hurricane Sandy which includes southern Ontario. Wind and heavy rain are the primary threats. However, the time period from late Sunday into Monday is going to be very interesting for those living in southern Ontario/Golden Horseshoe, specifically the interaction between the cold front/polar trough and Sandy. Will there be enough cold air in place for snowfall to take place? The 12z GFS and 18z NAM suggest snowfall for south-central Ontario. All in all, a very complex and potentially historic weather event is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 According to Osumetstud, the 12z Euro has sustained winds of 40-50 kts over Lake Erie. Obviously depends on final track but it would take a pretty big shift for that area to avoid strong winds. Too bad Sandy will have lost its tropical characteristics by that point. I would love to see Tropical Storm Warnings hoisted for Lake Erie someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 According to Osumetstud, the 12z Euro has sustained winds of 40-50 kts over Lake Erie. Obviously depends on final track but it would take a pretty big shift for that area to avoid strong winds. With gusts of 60-65kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS quietly moving toward the ECMWF without anybody noticing. This is pretty crazy anywhere it lands along the east coast. A landfalling Hurricane that far north............even DC is pretty crazy much less the impacts in our region. Definitely trended south...landfall now in C NJ. Pretty much any plausible scenario at this point has pretty drastic consequences. We are likely going to be looking at many millions of people without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I will try to get down to lake Erie and take a few pics from the Canadian side. With the wind blowing offshore the lake levels might be historically low, for the lake is well below normal levels without the wind. I hope this is the first interesting storm of many this winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halifax, NS has issued a statement for Hurricane Sandy which includes southern Ontario. Wind and heavy rain are the primary threats. However, the time period from late Sunday into Monday is going to be very interesting for those living in southern Ontario/Golden Horseshoe, specifically the interaction between the cold front/polar trough and Sandy. Will there be enough cold air in place for snowfall to take place? The 12z GFS and 18z NAM suggest snowfall for south-central Ontario. All in all, a very complex and potentially historic weather event is in the cards. 18z NAM shows 2m temps getting pretty close freezing later Sunday evening, with the rest of the column seemingly below freezing. But it's the NAM and it's October. I think the futher N/E the landfall of Sandy is, the better the chances of cold air staying deep here. However, based on how consistent the EURO is with a Delmarva-ish landfall, and based on the fact that the GFS seems to be trending slowly in that direction, I'm not holding my breath for anything notable. Maybe a few sloppy mood flakes? BTW nice to hear from you again T4. What has it been? 8 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The 18z GFS is pretty legit with the wind threat...especially over OH/MI/IN: I was quickly glancing at some skew-t's...the 18z GFS had an inversion around 850mb maybe a tad below across the region on Tuesday...however the model also had 60-80 knot winds at that level. Based on what the 12z Euro and 18z GFS showed...an impact in NJ or the Delmarva would probably be our best bet at some strong winds. The 18z GFS and 12z Euro do show a nice blast of very wet snow as the first band of moisture wraps west across OH/eastern MI with lighter amounts farther west before changing over to rain from east to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Guess I picked the right time for a vacation in Memphis and NOLA Halloween week. Due to Frankenstorm I will have good subsidence, cool temps and sunny skies. Will be interesting to see how this storm progresses for the mid atlantic and northeast and what happens west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That would produce some serious wave action here. With a NE'ly wind, that would be pretty damaging here along the coastline. Most of the oaks have all their leaves still, so falling trees will be a big concern. Are pretty much all the other trees bare? Oaks and some maples have leaves on them still here. Was listening to the radio show and further to the southeast there are lots of leaves on the trees still! This time frame looks pretty nasty for your area. Sandy back up in winds - 105mph. 963mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 CLE: THE OTHER PROBLEM WE MAY BE FACED WITH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AMOUNT OF LEAVES STILL ON THE TREES IS THE WIND. SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A CONSIDERABLE WIND EVENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS AT 925 MB EXPECTED TO BE 50 TO 60 KNOTS DURING THIS PERIOD. SO...WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVENT AS IT UNFOLDS. ONE THING WE HAVE TO WATCH IS RESEARCH INDICATES THAT THESE TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THEY BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL. ONE REMINDER IS IKE. HENCE...THE CONCERN FOR A CONSIDERABLE WIND EVENT. Ike-like That was 1 to 2 weeks of power outtages. With the impact in the megalopolis cities of the northeast, power crews will already be stretched thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Was listening to the radio show and further to the southeast there are lots of leaves on the trees still! Not sure how that's surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Guess I picked the right time for a vacation in Memphis and NOLA Halloween week. Due to Frankenstorm I will have good subsidence, cool temps and sunny skies. Will be interesting to see how this storm progresses for the mid atlantic and northeast and what happens west of the apps. I'm holding out for some backdoor deformation snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure how that's surprising. It's not surprising, just a fact. One issue will be heavy rain knocking leaves down and clogging up drainage passages. Be interesting to see how windy it can get over Lake Michigan... on Tuesday if Sandy backs in far enough. If there is widespread power outages - this storm could affect the election(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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