Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 CRAS and NOGAPS...desperate times I guess? I guess if you're looking for optimism, nothing trended east on the 00z runs compared to prior run (pending the Euro). Extra RAOBS should be getting in starting tomorrow so no excuses for tossing off hour runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GEM looks very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 CRAS and NOGAPS...desperate times I guess? Stupidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Don't post the NOGAPS it is a horrible model that should never be spoken of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NOGAPS at 96 hours brings Sandy into the Delmarva. ...Then it backs the low into Ohio and it sits over Cleveland for awhile! Snow on the backside. Check out HRS 120-156!! Some nice looking backside snows for W. Lakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Don't post the NOGAPS it is a horrible model that should never be spoken of. It looked pretty similar to the 12z EURO, that's why I bothered posting it. Don't know enough about that model yet I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Check out HRS 120-156!! Some nice looking backside snows for W. Lakes! Yeah, I'll admit this is one of the few systems I have checked the NOGAPS for, wanted to get its crappy perspective. Too bad it's no better than using a dartboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure what to think of the 00z Euro so far. At first I thought it might try to slip farther east but now I'm not sure based on the 96 hour map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Nope, Euro catches it, another big hit around Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Based on the 108 hour map, I don't think it will be too different than the 12z run. s/w looks a bit better this run which should fling it back toward the Mid Atlantic coast pretty sharply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 HARD left turn. This run may even end up ticking south/west of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 HARD left turn. This run may even end up ticking south/west of the 12z run. Basically the same position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 EURO has quite a bit of snow with it on this run. Stebo and SE MI get snow, along with 90% Ohio! Low runs right into Baltimore at 123hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I may be off my rocker for mentioning the GFDL but its a respectable tropical model right? I can only see out to HR126 but by then the low has moved from DC to Western PA and just guessing but maybe all the way to OH if we could see a few more frames. Pressure on the last frame was 958mb. That would no doubt bring some impacts to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Wind for one, and possibly even precip. Not going to guess on precip type. Its fun to see atleast, whether it happens is anyones guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I may be off my rocker for mentioning the GFDL but its a respectable tropical model right? I can only see out to HR126 but by then the low has moved from DC to Western PA and just guessing but maybe all the way to OH if we could see a few more frames. Pressure on the last frame was 958mb. That would no doubt bring some impacts to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Wind for one, and possibly even precip. Not going to guess on precip type. Its fun to see atleast, whether it happens is anyones guess. Yes, but I would be cautious using it farther out in time as this system interacts with the incoming trough/undergoes ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yes, but I would be cautious using it farther out in time as this system interacts with the incoming trough/undergoes ET. Ya, I was thinking the same thing. It probably is a decent model out over water with full tropical characteristics but not so much over land. Idk, but I feel tonight was a step in the right direction in terms of some members here feeling the effects of this system. Indiana is still on the outside looking in I feel. But the Euro brings snow through most of Ohio and far NE Indiana. Just another nudge west and maybe we could get some light rain/snow plus some decent N/NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just woke and was catching up on last night's posts. I had to lol at the CRAS and Navy model posts. Heck, someone should have made it a trifecta and posted the JMA. Seriously, it's fun to have something to follow other than where will it hit 90 today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Amazing storm to track. Hope we can drag a enough cold air into the system to generate our first snow event. Looks to warm at this point. Will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Imagine if this storm were one week later, affecting the coast on election day! Regardless, this storm will probably end up becoming a huge political issue if it does end up striking the coast and becoming a huge inland wind maker. You'll have candidates vowing for a quick recovery or making a big splash about rejecting federal disaster aid depending on the audience they are speaking too. If this makes landfall around coastal Virginia, it could end up deciding the election. If it continues to produce major winds inland, you'll have swing states like Ohio and PA flocking to get generators to keep the polls open or have to create last minute temporary polling locations. Many were without power for over a week with the remnants of Ike here. The political fallout from Sandy will probably be one of the more interesting/unusual aspects to take into account with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Amazing storm to track. Hope we can drag a enough cold air into the system to generate our first snow event. Looks to warm at this point. Will see Ya. I'm not so sure we will see a pure snow event. Mixed precip seems like a better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If it does end up retrograding west I think I'd be surprised if we didn't see any flakes at all. A dusting on elevated surfaces probably isn't too far fetched either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NHC shifted west. Now would have landfall presumably in New Jersey. 6z GEFS looked better overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 6z GEFS looked better overall. A good number of them have measurable precip this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 A good number of them have measurable precip this far west. The funny thing about this...I don't really even care if it's rain or snow. Just want to be a part of this beast in some way. Regardless of how it turns out, it's fascinating to watch. It's one thing for something like this to happen in the middle of the ocean, but throw in the enormous blocking, capture/phasing and uncertainties about when/how this storm transitions, well, nobody can really say they have seen a setup like this for the US very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Man I'm just salivating over the rainfall potential with this over here. Based on everything so far I think 2-3'' of rain seems like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The funny thing about this...I don't really even care if it's rain or snow. Just want to be a part of this beast in some way. Regardless of how it turns out, it's fascinating to watch. It's one thing for something like this to happen in the middle of the ocean, but throw in the enormous blocking, capture/phasing and uncertainties about when/how this storm transitions, well, nobody can really say they have seen a setup like this for the US very often. It's certainly an interesting meteorological event to watch unfold. I'd love to see a few flakes from it if nothing else, but like you, it's doesn't really matter in the grand scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just an update from NWS here in La Crosse...interesting: BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...ALL OF THE INTEREST WILL BE CENTERED UPON EITHER EXTRATROPICAL OR HURRICANE SANDY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT INTO WASHINGTON DC ON MONDAY. THE GEM HAS IT MAKING LANDFALL IN LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT. FINALLY THE GFS HAS IT MAKING LANDFALL IN NEW FOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST TWO SOLUTIONS KEEPS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS INTERESTING BECAUSE IT TAKES THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY AND BRINGS IT BACK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS THEN DO THE FUJIWARA OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just taking a very early crack at wind potential, it would appear that widespread gusts of 40-50 mph may be possible on the back side of the low. The pressure change has the potential to be enormous (if the models are anywhere close to correct on the depth of the surface low) but it will also be spread out over a huge area. Not out of the question that winds could be higher in some areas but I think this is a reasonable guess for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Through 96 hours, it looks like the 12z Euro is probably going to remain in the southern camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 At 108 hours, the Euro appears to be a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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