Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 A couple of the 0z GFS ensemble members bring light precip to Indiana. Might be snow, might not be. So there's that. A couple more of the 6z members do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Everything is wacky in this setup but there are a couple real standouts in that 6z GEFS suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What, you don't like a landfalling Hurricane that far north? Well it is going to ruin some people's plans for that day if that verifies! Hopefully it won't come ashore as a major hurricane. --- It's interesting to see the lake effect precipitation being shown now for the western side of LM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well it is going to ruin some people's plans for that day if that verifies! Hopefully it won't come ashore as a major hurricane. Seems like a 1 in a million shot (ok maybe not that extreme but you get the point). Land interaction/shear should keep this somewhat in check in the next few days. It might steady out/strengthen some as it transitions but then the question becomes at what point is it no longer considered tropical? May be a cat 1 but going into Jamaica in a strengthening phase...not so good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The 12z GFS trended closer towards the Euro and eventually does bring Sandy's remnants into Maine. It is much more aggressive in digging a trough in the Great Lakes and argues for some snow on the eastern edge of this sub-forum. It's actually a decent Lake Enhanced Snow setup off of Lake Erie with a deep cyclonic flow...high mid level RH's and 850's of sub -6C. Edit: Looks like the western lakes get in on the action as well. Given that the GFS has generally been the least phased with Sandy/the Great Lakes trough out of most modeling and still, with this extremely late capture scenario, brings some snow chances and breezy conditions into this subforum, the trends for right now are going that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12Z GFS Precip type FWIW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 For the moment, Sandy should be labeled the Hallo"weenie" storm. I'm sure I'm not the first to think of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The 12z GFS trended closer towards the Euro and eventually does bring Sandy's remnants into Maine. It is much more aggressive in digging a trough in the Great Lakes and argues for some snow on the eastern edge of this sub-forum. It's actually a decent Lake Enhanced Snow setup off of Lake Erie with a deep cyclonic flow...high mid level RH's and 850's of sub -6C. Edit: Looks like the western lakes get in on the action as well. Given that the GFS has generally been the least phased with Sandy/the Great Lakes trough out of most modeling and still, with this extremely late capture scenario, brings some snow chances and breezy conditions into this subforum, the trends for right now are going that direction. The capture scenario seems to be gaining steam...mainly just a question of when and where. Should be able to nail that down in the next couple days with additional data ingestion. 12z GGEM has a 945 mb low almost right over Boston at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 For the moment, Sandy should be labeled the Hallo"weenie" storm. I'm sure I'm not the first to think of that. Lol! Good one. Did not cross my mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 IF it were to snow, what day(s) would that be most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Halloween storm? http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/10/interesting-storm-shaping-up-for.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z Euro is teasing stebo land...pulling for the NW trend for you buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z Euro is teasing stebo land...pulling for the NW trend for you buddy Landfall happens farther down the coast on this run. Sandy is moving at a decent clip right now. I have seen some speculation about a faster movement meaning a track farther east but I'm not sure if that is an automatic assumption given all the moving parts. There are some monsters on the 12z GEFS. Wish we could see the individual Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looks like this run of the EURO impacts every state along the eastern seaboard. Really pulling to the left. GFS 6z solutions was really interesting for this subforum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This is something...off hour soundings coming for every part of the country. SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1813Z WED OCT 24 2012 DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM... ***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS*** WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z Euro plows it right into Pennsylvania ... Still out of the contention this far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Regardless if this hits any of us or not with any type of precip, this has to be one of the most interesting scenarios for the eastern coast in quite some time. I'm still intrigued by what affects this may have, but I wouldn't like the chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think it is the amping of the northern stream that is key, the more it digs, the more Sandy gets gets pulled west into a non-tropical bomb ala 1950. The 12z Euro OP was a touch more amped and it pulled it in a touch more west and stronger inland. Yeah that is definitely very important. The overall pattern resembles what has been seen for some of the legendary storms to impact the eastern 1/3 of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z Euro is teasing stebo land...pulling for the NW trend for you buddy Thanks sir, at the very least I think mood flakes and wind looks pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The Euro is still holding fairly strong whereas the GFS has slowly, somewhat shifted towards the Euro, with the GGEM stuck somewhere in-between. It'll be interesting to see, what happens in the end but if the Euro were to verify that'd be some hectic rain and winds and maybe some flakes? LOL. lets see. nce cold outbreak next week though, depicted on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 BUF getting giddy. One way or another, the 2012-13 cold weather season is sure kicking off with some excitement. THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS A PRIME CASE FOR NOT LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL MODEL OUTPUT AND INSTEAD FOCUSING ON ENSEMBLE DATA. NOT ONLY THAT...IN THIS CASE YOU CANNOT RELY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS...BUT YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT EACH OF THE MEMBERS AND WATCH FOR TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE-MEMBER-PREFERRED SOLUTIONS. I HAVE RARELY SEEN SUCH A PERFECT CASE FOR CHAOS THEORY SO WILLINGLY SHOWING ITS UGLY FACE...WITH FINELY TUNED MODELS PRODUCING SUCH EXTREME OUTCOMES. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INFINITE SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENTLY EVOLVING PATTERN...IN GENERAL IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE-TO-EXTREME TROPICAL-TO-EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE THAT WILL HAVE PAPERS WRITTEN ABOUT IT IN YEARS TO COME. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO COVER EACH OF THE VARYING SOLUTIONS....BUT WE CAN ROUGHLY BREAK IT DOWN INTO THREE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES: 1 - SANDY MOVES INLAND...BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL WHILE ITS REMNANT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO SOMEWHERE WITHIN NYS. THIS PRODUCES A WHOLE BUNCH OF RARE FORECAST ISSUES...WITH HEAVY RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...AND A NE WIND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 2 - SANDY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE OR AFTER LANDFALL...BUT A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORCES NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT INLAND WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DYING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS TOO WOULD PRODUCE AN ELEVATION SNOW EVENT...WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME WIND TOO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 3 - SANDY MOVES HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA AND BECOMES A FANTASTIC FISH STORM. ANOTHER SYSTEM EVOLVES AND SPREADS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...OR MAYBE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT EVEN EXIST. WITH SUCH WILDLY VARYING SOLUTIONS...WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF RAIN...AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOL TO COLD SIDE COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 For the moment, Sandy should be labeled the Hallo"weenie" storm. I'm sure I'm not the first to think of that. You have to admit that if we weren't interested in the potential of this storm, we would all be considered "hollow-weenies". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 There is some pretty intense solutions in the 12z GFS ensembles! P008 and 009 are wow! P010 would have the most impact on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This thing is looking pretty healthy. Cuba might take it on the chin. It will be interesting to see what if any effect a potentially stronger than expected hurricane could have on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here's a model that takes Sandy up to Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS ensemble tracks for Hurricane Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here's a model that takes Sandy up to Lake Michigan. You may have just picked the worst model on the planet. Like seriously, it makes the NAM look like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 You may have just picked the worst model on the planet. Like seriously, it makes the NAM look like the Euro. It's Ytterbum, what else do you expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here's a model that takes Sandy up to Lake Michigan. If you look closer, that is a secondary low that forms from Sandy due to part of it occluding back to the west. Sandy is there to the far right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If you look closer, that is a secondary low that forms from Sandy due to part of it occluding back to the west. Sandy is there to the far right. I don't know...I went backwards through the run and it seems that it is indeed Sandy. It has it passing off the west coast of Florida so that is a "test" to see how this model does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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