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Sandy speculation thread


snowstormcanuck

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Buckeye-

In winter, every night around 11pm my house makes a big cracking noise...something to do with the rafters/joists moving/contracting..who knows...the whole place will probably collapse smile.png

Have fun guys...i'll be watching from the sidelines...i see a few leaves on the tree moving outside

I know that noise well. Ours does that too, usually in the pre-dawn. It's kind of like a popping-cracking noise like an old man getting out of bed on a cold morning. As regular as it is, it never stops my wife from asking' wth was that?'. smile.png

I look at it this way, the old house has survived 110 yrs of countless storms and is still standing strong.

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I know that noise well. Ours does that too, usually in the pre-dawn. It's kind of like a popping-cracking noise like an old man getting out of bed on a cold morning. As regular as it is, it never stops my wife from asking' wth was that?'. smile.png

I look at it this way, the old house has survived 110 yrs of countless storms and is still standing strong.

Wow! That is amazing! Looking forward to talking with you this winter hopefully (UNLIKE LAST WINTER'S DISASTER!)

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starting to get some decent gusts....the kind that make the old house creek and crack (for those who live in a 100 yr+ house you know what I mean). Local news was interviewing a NWS guy who said he didn't expect outtages to be as widespread as the derecho.

This makes me wonder. Which is potentially more damaging? 15 mins of 50-70mph winds OR 18 hours of 30-55mph winds?

Perhaps the leaves being mostly gone off the trees is factored in. I read online AEP was also not expecting a large outage in the area.

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Under a wind advisory now. CNN saying power outages might extend as far west and eastern WI!

This will be an interesting camera to watch. One of the few operating cameras at sea level on LI.

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Lake Erie web cam at Eastlake.

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LOT upgrades Lake and Porter counties to a HWW.

LAKE IN-PORTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GARY...VALPARAISO

1213 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM

CDT TUESDAY...

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. THE

HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING AND WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH

WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE

WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING INTO TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED

SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH BY

DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE

ABATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE

MICHIGAN.

* IMPACTS...THE VERY STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN MINOR WIND

DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. BE CERTAIN

THAT ANY LOOSE ITEMS SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WINDS ARE SECURED. THE

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY ADVERSELY IMPACT HIGH PROFILE

VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON EAST TO WEST HIGHWAYS...SUCH AS

INTERSTATE 80.

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NW at 28 mph on the new advisory. Looks like landfall will be 3-4 hours ahead of what the 12z runs showed. If the underestimation of forward speed continues farther inland then it could make things a little more interesting.

Agreed. The faster this thing moves inland, the better our prospects of damaging wind gusts will be.

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LOT upgrades Lake and Porter counties to a HWW.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1236 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

DISCUSSION

1235 PM CDT

FORECAST CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN VERY SLIGHT THUS FAR. HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES IN INDIANA...WHERE THE STRONGEST ONSHORE WIND IS FOCUSED. THE 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN THE WIND FIELD AND DEPTH OF MIXING OVER THE LAKE AND ONTO THE SHORES. LOOKING BACK AT THE TWO STORM WARNING EVENTS OF LAST AUTUMN /SEPT-30TH AND OCT 1ST AND OCT 19TH-20TH/ AS ROUGH ANALOGS...BELIEVE EVEN FURTHER THAT SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL OCCUR WITHIN SEVERAL MILES OF THE LAKE SHORE IN LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES. THE LATTER OF THE TWO AUTUMN 2011 EVENTS ACTUALLY MATCHES THIS SCENARIO A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RECORD WAVE ONE OF SEPT 30 2011 /AT LEAST AS WELL AS THE CURRENT 938 MB LOW CAN BE MATCHED/. THAT OCT 19TH- 20TH 2011 EVENT HAD GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND SUSTAINED OVER 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE AND PORTER SHORES. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT MAGNITUDE CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS. WILL BE FURTHER REFINING START...PEAK...AND END TIMES OF THESE WINDS AND WAVES.

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Another fun little weather anomaly from Sandy here: it looks like the high will be 42 and the low 41. The last time there was a one degree spread from high to low was November 28, 1981 when it was 37/36.

Sandy is going to be drawing in a lot of warm, moist air from the tropics, as it approaches. I would expect temperatures to rise well above the current high of 42 at some point, even if not until late this evening.

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Wow, very impressive outer band. What kind of conditions are you observing with that feature?

I'm 40 miles west of it right now, but according to Twitter and CP24 News it's pouring rain in Toronto.

Edit, Tweets appearing now reporting very strong wind in Downtown Toronto

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