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Sandy speculation thread


snowstormcanuck

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satw_24.gif

There was talk that a complete eyewall was trying to establish itself. By the looks of it on water vapor... it kinda looks that way!

Another cool satellite I snagged from another subforum.

sandywvloop_102912_1230am.gif

She's keeping the drier air at bay to the southeast! 949mb now.

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Areas right near the shore especially in IN/MI are gonna get hammered. Really not a stretch to think that there could be 18+ hours of tropical storm type winds particularly within a couple miles of the lake.

It seems possible. It will be interesting to see what the max recorded gust is.

You still thinking about heading up there?

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I think this may be a little overdone away from the lake, but remember, these numbers are in knots:

post-525-0-64555300-1351486163_thumb.png

Forecast soundings for CLE are a whole lotta nasty...900 mb winds around 70 knots tomorrow night and fully mixed to that level. Really wouldn't be shocked to see an 80 mph gust at the shore but not sure if any ob site is close enough to capture it.

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Forecast soundings for CLE are a whole lotta nasty...900 mb winds around 70 knots tomorrow night and fully mixed to that level. Really wouldn't be shocked to see an 80 mph gust at the shore but not sure if any ob site is close enough to capture it.

KBKL is in downtown Cleveland and as far as I know is actually on an old landfill that extends about a quarter mile out over the lake. So that is the on-land station to watch.

I agree with you that the well mixed layer that will be created by the warm lake will really aid in getting some very strong gusts near the lakeshore...could see a 65kt gust or two working out in that area, maybe slightly higher.

I'm not sure how quickly gusts will drop off inland...the hi-res 0z NAM shows 2m temps dropping off from near 50 along the lakeshore to the low-mid 40s less than 10 miles inland...with the exception being the Cuyahoga Valley, which also happens to be oriented NNW-SSE, and could yield some of the more impressive gusts away from the lake.

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Environment Canada appears to be preparing to issue a wind warning @ 5am. As for a rainfall warning... guess they aren't expecting those 2-3" totals now. But, we've ready had 1.90" in Waterloo since Friday and it's still coming down.

A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE PRESENCE OF A STALLED FRONT NOW OVER

SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MOISTURE-LADEN POST-TROPICAL STORMS WITH RAIN BANDS

INTERACTING WITH FRONTS CAN PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. PERSISTENT

RAIN IS FORECAST NEAR THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY LEADING

UP TO THE ARRIVAL OF SANDY THIS EVENING. A TOTAL OF 20 TO 40 MM IS

LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO SANDY'S EFFECTS, ESPECIALLY

ACROSS NIAGARA EXTENDING WEST TOWARDS THE ST THOMAS AREA. LESSER

AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. RAINFALL WARNINGS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT

THIS TIME BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

WIND IS MORE OF A CONCERN. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY PRODUCE

WIDESPREAD 50 TO 70 KM/H WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO BEGINNING

LATER TODAY WITH SEVERE GUSTS TO 100 KM/H LIKELY. GALE TO STORM

FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE RIVER.

THE COMBINATION OF SODDEN GROUND, STRONG WINDS AND SOME RESIDUAL

LEAVES ON TREES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS WITH POWER OUTAGES

DUE TO FALLEN LIMBS OR DOWNED TREES SNAPPING POWER LINES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL ULTIMATELY

DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LARGE FALL STORM. WIND WARNINGS

WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 5 AM FOR A WIDE SWATH OF SOUTHERN AND

EASTERN ONTARIO. RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED DEPENDING ON SANDY'S

PATH AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

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I am in awe right now. Legitimate hurricane force winds forecasted here. It's unreal to think that it might behoove people to put plywood over their windows this afternoon. The media is really going to have to stress to the public not to sleep in any room that may have a tree nearby. I fear there could be an extremely high death toll with the peak winds coming overnight while people are sleeping.

There are going to be a lot of homeless people come Tuesday morning from trees falling through homes. My house is surrounded by 40-50' mature oaks that still have most of their leaves. The wind trajectory and the vegetation here is just not used to that kind of wind stress, especially for hours on end, unlike the more limber tropical palms.

Hopefully there are enough FEMA trailers to go around! axesmiley.png

NWS Forecast for: 3 Miles E Lakewood OH

Issued by: National Weather Service Cleveland, OH

Last Update: 12:18 am EDT Oct 29, 2012

Overnight: Rain. Low around 42. Breezy, with a north wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Rain. High near 47. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday Night: Rain. Low around 43. Very windy, with a northwest wind 41 to 48 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Rain. High near 49. Very windy, with a north wind 39 to 44 mph decreasing to 31 to 36 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 43. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

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I am in awe right now. Legitimate hurricane force winds forecasted here. It's unreal to think that it might behoove people to put plywood over their windows this afternoon. The media is really going to have to stress to the public not to sleep in any room that may have a tree nearby. I fear there could be an extremely high death toll with the peak winds coming overnight while people are sleeping.

There are going to be a lot of homeless people come Tuesday morning from trees falling through homes. My house is surrounded by 40-50' mature oaks that still have most of their leaves. The wind trajectory and the vegetation here is just not used to that kind of wind stress, especially for hours on end, unlike the more limber tropical palms.

Hopefully there are enough FEMA trailers to go around! axesmiley.png

NWS Forecast for: 3 Miles E Lakewood OH

Issued by: National Weather Service Cleveland, OH

Last Update: 12:18 am EDT Oct 29, 2012

Overnight: Rain. Low around 42. Breezy, with a north wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Rain. High near 47. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday Night: Rain. Low around 43. Very windy, with a northwest wind 41 to 48 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Rain. High near 49. Very windy, with a north wind 39 to 44 mph decreasing to 31 to 36 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 43. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

I wonder how much wind damage Toronto will experience? It looks to be extremely windy tonight, and sometimes Environment Canada plays down things until the last minute. It was only this morning that they issued a wind warning for us.

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I am in awe right now. Legitimate hurricane force winds forecasted here. It's unreal to think that it might behoove people to put plywood over their windows this afternoon. The media is really going to have to stress to the public not to sleep in any room that may have a tree nearby. I fear there could be an extremely high death toll with the peak winds coming overnight while people are sleeping.

There are going to be a lot of homeless people come Tuesday morning from trees falling through homes. My house is surrounded by 40-50' mature oaks that still have most of their leaves. The wind trajectory and the vegetation here is just not used to that kind of wind stress, especially for hours on end, unlike the more limber tropical palms.

Hopefully there are enough FEMA trailers to go around! axesmiley.png

NWS Forecast for: 3 Miles E Lakewood OH

Issued by: National Weather Service Cleveland, OH

Last Update: 12:18 am EDT Oct 29, 2012

Overnight: Rain. Low around 42. Breezy, with a north wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Rain. High near 47. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday Night: Rain. Low around 43. Very windy, with a northwest wind 41 to 48 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Rain. High near 49. Very windy, with a north wind 39 to 44 mph decreasing to 31 to 36 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 43. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

That's an extreme forecast for Ohio! If I was riding out the storm there, I wouldn't be sleeping at night with large trees around. Has it been raining non-stop since yesterday?

--

My forecasted winds:

Today: N winds 15-25mph, gusts to 30mph

Tonight: NW winds 20-30mph, gusts to 45mph

Tomorrow: NW winds 25-35mph, gusts to 50mph

Tomorrow night: NW winds 15-25mph, gusts to 35mph

I didn't not expect to see Sandy at 90mph this morning!

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Potential still looks good...

..MAJOR WIND STORM STORM APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN..

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS

SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE SANDY

CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA. THE INCREASING PRESSURE

GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS LED TO GALES ACROSS LAKE

HURON AND LAKE ERIE WITH THESE STRONG WINDS EXPANDING WESTWARD

TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE

MORNING AND REACH GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL FURTHER

INCREASE TO HIGH END GALES THIS EVENING AT WHICH TIME SANDY WILL BE

MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. WHAT REMAINS OF SANDY

WILL MOVE TOWARD WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING

TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. EXPECT THAT

STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF

THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TUESDAY

AFTERNOON...WITH 55 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. STORM FORCE GUSTS TO

50 KT LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE

TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN

THIS OCCURRING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GALE WARNING AND MENTION

THE POTENTIAL FOR 50 KT IN THE TEXT FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR

THIS ON THE NORTH HALF LOOKS TO BE FROM MID LAKE EASTWARD. WINDS

WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EASE OFF TUESDAY EVENING BUT GALE FORCE

WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE

WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE BY THE END OF THE WEEK

AS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY MOVE UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

IMPACTS...THE LONG DURATION...FULL LENGTH FETCH...AND PERIOD OF

STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVES INTO THE 20-25 FT RANGE WITH

OCCASIONAL WAVES OF 30-33 FT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE

SIMILAR TO THE STORM WHICH OCCURRED BACK ON SEPTEMBER 30 2011 WHICH

PRODUCED THE HIGHEST WAVE EVER RECORDED AT THE SOUTH BUOY...23 FT.

IN ADDITION TO IMPACTS ON SHIPPING/BOATING THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL

PUSH ASHORE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA LEADING TO BEACH EROSION AND

FLOODING OF SOME SHORELINE AREAS. THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE IS ALSO AT

RISK OF BEACH EROSION AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE SECTIONS

OF SHORELINE WHICH HAVE A NORTHERN EXPOSURE. ANY

SHORELINE...PIER...OR BREAKWALL THAT EXTENDS OUT INTO THE LAKE WILL

BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HAVING WAVES BREAK OVER THEM AT TIMES.

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starting to get some decent gusts....the kind that make the old house creek and crack (for those who live in a 100 yr+ house you know what I mean). Local news was interviewing a NWS guy who said he didn't expect outtages to be as widespread as the derecho.

This makes me wonder. Which is potentially more damaging? 15 mins of 50-70mph winds OR 18 hours of 30-55mph winds?

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