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Sandy speculation thread


snowstormcanuck

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lol at DTX - yet to issue any wind products

Tell me about it....

Surprised at no headlines from DTX, particularly with areas west of there already having wind advisories.

Sandy looks a few hours faster on the 18z NAM so far.

Conservative office.

GRR's Wind Advisory doesn't go into effect until 5 PM Monday.

So DTX is fine.

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Winds increasing a bit in northern Ohio too. Looks like generally 20 to 30 mph winds, with gusts to 35 mph near the lakeshore, and 15 to 25 mph winds, with gusts to 30 mph inland. Buoy 45005, near the Erie Islands, was reporting 29 knot (33 mph) sustained winds, with gusts to 35 knots (40 mph). So sustained winds out over the open waters are already nearing tropical storm force, and exceeding that force in gusts.

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I will call it out on this one, it is dumb, we are already gusting to around 30mph and we are over 24 hours from the much better winds.

Wind Advisory criteria is frequent gusts of 45-60 MPH for at least a few hours.

So strictly based on the official criteria, DTX is 100% in the right.

Besides, per the discussion, it appears they're waiting one more shift to decide who's going to get what headline (High Wind Warning vs. Wind Advisory).

the zones forcast of 25-35 with gust to 40mph maybe a little underdone for detroit.

I agree there.

But the strongest winds will be from Monday evening to Tuesday morning.

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Might have to head over there on Tues...

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

349 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

LMZ744-745-290430-

GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-

349 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE

MONDAY NIGHT...

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTERNOON...

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING...

MONDAY NIGHT

NORTH GALES TO 45 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE

WINDS TO 50 KT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. WAVES 15

TO 20 FT WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 28 FT.

TUESDAY

NORTH STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO GALES

TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE

AFTERNOON. WAVES 20 TO 25 FT WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 33 FT.

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0z NAM close, albeit marginal, for snow at CMH tomorrow night/overnight. Slushy/grass minor accumulations?

6z and 12z sfc. temps of 1C, with sub-freezing starting at 925mb... there's definitely some chance of a bit of slush, but I can't imagine much in the way of anything more than a very small accumulation. The morning commute won't be good anywhere in Ohio with gusts up to 60mph and (possibly) snow flying in the air.

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6z and 12z sfc. temps of 1C, with sub-freezing starting at 925mb... there's definitely some chance of a bit of slush, but I can't imagine much in the way of anything more than a very small accumulation. The morning commute won't be good anywhere in Ohio with gusts up to 60mph and (possibly) snow flying in the air.

Yeah, agreed. Like I said, marginal...but a chance at seeing a little something. Hope it works out. :)

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Might have to head over there on Tues...

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

349 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

LMZ744-745-290430-

GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-

349 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE

MONDAY NIGHT...

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTERNOON...

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING...

MONDAY NIGHT

NORTH GALES TO 45 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE

WINDS TO 50 KT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. WAVES 15

TO 20 FT WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 28 FT.

TUESDAY

NORTH STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO GALES

TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE

AFTERNOON. WAVES 20 TO 25 FT WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 33 FT.

Areas right near the shore especially in IN/MI are gonna get hammered. Really not a stretch to think that there could be 18+ hours of tropical storm type winds particularly within a couple miles of the lake.

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