buckeye Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ^^ forgot to say that is the 12z HWRF which was pretty much spot on at initialization, fwiw. If that realized, i bet that would have to be a record low barometric pressure this far inland. I believe the old record for the continental U.S. was the Cleveland bomb at 952. Edit: that doesn't imply higher winds than the CLE bomb. That storm also had a much stronger pressure gradient with a much stronger HP in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Record for an inland, extratropical system was the Octobomb at 953 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 HIGH WIND WATCH along and north of I70 in Ohio and WIND ADVISORY south of I70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The 09z SREF mean take on it FWIW. WV mountains get clobbered. Imagine being at Dolly Sods WV...that's the highest elevation in the state. Probably like being at Mount Washington, VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 These models are going to continue to struggle with pressure - we are in uncharted territory. They are almost all initializing the storm's pressure to high, not to mention the storm is looking better organized and more tropical in nature by the minute. This thing is going to be a monster, especially as it continues to ingest some of the baroclinic energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Record for an inland, extratropical system was the Octobomb at 953 mb. I remember there being some controversy...initially it was thought that Octobomb may have been a record but I think there was some storm in the northeast that was a tad deeper. Don't know what this one will be classified as though since it's not starting out as non-tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised to see IWX go with a HIGH WIND WATCH as well. Not sure about IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 If that realized, i bet that would have to be a record low barometric pressure this far inland. I believe the old record for the continental U.S. was the Cleveland bomb at 952. Edit: that doesn't imply higher winds than the CLE bomb. That storm also had a much stronger pressure gradient with a much stronger HP in place Top three records.... 955.0 mb (28.20 inches of mercury) 13 January 1913 at Canton, New York 955.0 mb (28.20 inches of mercury) 7 March 1932 at Block Island, Rhode Island 955.2 mb (28.21 inches of mercury) 26 October 2010 at Bigfork, MN The question is will it still be tropical at landfall, if it is there is no shot at the record...which is for extra-tropical storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Speaking of snow, how often do we see the NHC mention snow in one of their products? BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... ...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS... SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 These models are going to continue to struggle with pressure - we are in uncharted territory. They are almost all initializing the storm's pressure to high, not to mention the storm is looking better organized and more tropical in nature by the minute. This thing is going to be a monster, especially as it continues to ingest some of the baroclinic energy. Based on what I can tell the new 12z Euro forecast the storm to be at 960mb at 15z this morning, and NHC had it at 951mb. Extrapolating that out to the landfall tomorrow night....The Euro has it down to 944mb on the Jersey shore, so taking another 9mb off that would put it at 935mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 So far 1.04" with the front. We could possibly go over 3" storm total but it's such a long duration event, I think we're safe from any kind of large scale flooding. Tree and powerline damage due to the winds tomorrow night into Tuesday look to be the main threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm surprised that this forum is so dead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm surprised that this forum is so dead.... I doubt widespread stratiform rains, high winds and temps in the 40s excites many people. In fact, it's the worst possible type of weather one can ask for IMO. I'm only tracking this storm for the potentially record low barometric pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 DTX AS FOR HOW THIS INFLUENCES WIND POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED THAT THE REAL PUSH OF MOISTURE/PRECIP WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH AT LEAST PAINTS A CLEARER PICTURE OF HOW WIND POTENTIAL WILL UNFOLD PRIOR TO THAT TIME. A WIND ADVISORY STILL REMAINS IN PLAY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT, BUT MOST LIKELY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL SINCE THE MOISTENING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER, WHILE PROBABLY INHIBITING GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS/HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA, MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT GUSTS TO 35KTS/ADVISORY LEVEL. THE GRADIENT ALONE SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER. HOWEVER, WITH NORTH WINDS RAGING OVER LAKE HURON LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY YET BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT, FEEL THAT CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR THOSE LOCATIONS IS ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN ADVISORY POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR OVERACHIEVING COURTESY OF EXTREME FRICTIONAL/TURBULENT MIXING AS STRONG NORTH WINDS SURGE INLAND. HOWEVER, THE MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF THE ADJUSTMENT THAT WILL BE TAKING PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUGGESTS CAUTION AS ANY UNFORESEEN DEVIATION FROM EXPECTATIONS WOULD NOT HAVE TO BE TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT FOR ITS EFFECTS TO ROLL DOWNHILL AND THROW A WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST. THEREFORE, WILL DEFER HIGH WIND WATCH CONSIDERATION FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES UNTIL AT LEAST THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UNTIL THEN, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN 40S UNDER BRISK NORTH FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WHILE THE SAME CONDITIONS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS LIMITED TO 30-40F. && 25-30' waves on Huron sure excite me! I'm going up to check this out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So far 1.04" with the front. We could possibly go over 3" storm total but it's such a long duration event, I think we're safe from any kind of large scale flooding. Tree and powerline damage due to the winds tomorrow night into Tuesday look to be the main threat. We've had steady rain all afternoon...mod to heavy here in Columbus area. Looking at the radar it's getting heavier and training due north, nw, with the front and no end in sight. I don't think ILN wasn't expecting this amount of rain with the front either. Probably not good saturating the ground this much before a sustained period of highwinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Chad Meyers on CNN mentioned that somewhere in the mountains of WV like Snowshoe could see up to 60" snow totals! For Ohio members, you will likely be interested in watching the river gauges... http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=oh&w=map Alot of rivers in NC Ohio are already "much above" normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 lol at DTX - yet to issue any wind products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 lol at DTX - yet to issue any wind products Tell me about it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 We've had steady rain all afternoon...mod to heavy here in Columbus area. Looking at the radar it's getting heavier and training due north, nw, with the front and no end in sight. I don't think ILN wasn't expecting this amount of rain with the front either. Probably not good saturating the ground this much before a sustained period of highwinds. And it has just started to rain here. Looks like its tracking to the Northwest.. 45 dbz on a couple of the cells----- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Surprised at no headlines from DTX, particularly with areas west of there already having wind advisories. Sandy looks a few hours faster on the 18z NAM so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Surprised at no headlines from DTX, particularly with areas west of there already having wind advisories. Sandy looks a few hours faster on the 18z NAM so far. Conservative office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just snuck into the Wind Advisory put out by IND. Advisory text has sustained 25-35mph, gusts of 40-50mph from Monday evening to Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 pretty cool the left turn has pretty much stuck from the start.. in the end as I thought no big deal for most of this sub.... Ohio doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I would suspect LOT will hoist advisories pretty soon as well. Lake Michigan waves should reach 20 feet by Tuesday morning! INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN BE DICTATED BY HURRICANE SANDY AS IT BLOCKS THE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NJ/DELMARVA REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REMNANT CENTER PROGRESSING SLOWLY TO WESTERN NY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE RADIUS OF INFLUENCE IS ALREADY IMPRESSIVELY MASSIVE WITHIN THE PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD...AND THAT WILL ONLY EXPAND AS EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TAKE OVER WITH THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THIS SYSTEM. WHAT BECOMES VERY APPARENT BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT IS THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE 500 MB TO SURFACE LAYER OVER LAKE MI...INCLUDING A 50 TO 65 KT PLUS JET /DEPENDING ON GUIDANCE/ IN THE 1000-4000 FT LAYER. THIS FLOW PATTERN ALSO MAXIMIZES THE FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT AND THE DESTABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WARM LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES TO VERY LIKELY REACH 20 FT ALREADY BY TUE MORNING ALONG THE INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY IL SHORES. LAKESHORE FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH SUCH WAVES AND PERSISTENCE /20 FT PLUS WAVES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING/...SO A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BE GREATEST IN NORTHWEST IN...BUT SUCH AS THE SEPTEMBER 30 2011 RECORD WAVE EVENT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI...SOME IMPACTS ARE LIKELY IN COOK COUNTY INCLUDING CHICAGO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE AND NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN...AND ARE FAVORED TO REACH THEIR MAXIMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE TYPE OF SPEEDS REACHED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LAKE SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ALL THE WAY TO THE IN SHORE GIVEN THE FRICTIONLESS FETCH...AND AT THIS TIME THIS IS LIKELY TO INCLUDE GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 MPH. WORKING INLAND THESE WILL TAPER QUICKLY...BUT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INLAND THROUGH NORTHWEST INDIANA AN ADDITIONAL TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES EXPERIENCING THE ONSHORE FLOW. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FILLS MORE RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY AND PRESSURE FALLS CEASE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT HIGH WAVES WILL CONTINUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 thats just great.. more water going to waste in chicago... biggest deal out of sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 IWX mentioned in the AFD that they pondered HIGH WIND WARNING as well as surrounding offices... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I would suspect LOT will hoist advisories pretty soon as well. Lake Michigan waves should reach 20 feet by Tuesday morning! Additionally... ...GALES EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST NORTH TO HUDSON BAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST...HURRICANE SANDY IS SPINNING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS PUTS LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A STRONG HURRICANE TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES NORTHWARD. SANDY IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BY MONDAY EVENING. A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE WITH 30 KT WINDS ALREADY OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE TRACK NORTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD...WITH NORTH GALES DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALES WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER ALL OF THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT AT THIS POINT...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE EXTENDED NORTHERLY FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVES AS HIGH AS 25 FEET CRASHING INTO THE NORTHERN INDIANA SHORELINE...WITH WAVES OVER 30 FEET POSSIBLE. WAVES OVER THE ILLINOIS SHORE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT WILL STILL BE UP TO 20 FEET...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WAVES POSSIBLE. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE. WAVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SHOULD BE SLOW TO DAMPEN OUT AFTER THE EXTENDED STRONG NORTH FETCH...SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WAVES ARE LIKELY...EVEN AFTER THE WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Part of the Afternoon (3:36pm EDT) Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service in Cleveland... .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... UNFORTUNATELY REMNANTS OF SANDY...ENHANCED BY UPPER DYNAMICS WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO WESTERN PA BY TUE AND STALL BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH STARTING WED INTO WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE MON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS CAUSING STRONGEST WINDS TO BEGIN TO OCCUR. WILL GO AHEAD WITH HIGH WIND WARNING AND LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING HEADLINES NOW THAT WILL OFFICIALLY START AT 16Z MON. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH SEEM LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BASED ON STRONGER WINDS IN THE MODELS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA HAVE ALSO ADDED THESE CO`S TO THE WARNING. WILL ALSO EXTEND WIND WARNING UNTIL 20Z TUE TO GIVE EXTRA TIME FOR WINDS TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME. THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN SOME BY TUE EVE AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WED AND WED NIGHT WHILE LIFTING NORTH. ENDING OF WIND HEADLINES FOR TUE EVENING MAY WORK OUT BUT LAKESHORE COULD STILL NEED WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS TURN MORE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO COVER ALL OF AREA INTO WED NIGHT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY RANGE THRU WED WITH FAR WEST AND SW BACKING TO HIGH CHANCE FOR WED NIGHT. TEMPS WON`T SHOW MUCH FLUCTUATION THROUGH WED NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND RAIN DOMINATE. PATCHES OF MIXED WET SNOW STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DIURNAL COLDEST TIME MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE FOR THE SW HALF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Storm Warnings have now been issued for Lake Michigan! Gale warnings along the shore now. ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY... ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * WINDS...NORTH GALES TO 35 KT STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 50 KT STORM FORCE WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GALES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * SIGNIFICANT WAVES...12 TO 16 FT MONDAY AFTERNOON BUILDING TO 20 TO 25 FT TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING TO 12 TO 16 FT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 20 FT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUILDING TO 33 FT TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING TO 28 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 18Z GFS takes a little longer to weaken Sandy...thus stronger winds for a longer period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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