Hoosier Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 There's been a noticeable slowing trend in recent runs, and the 00z NAM continues that. We'll have to see if it's real or not...I have read that models have tended to underestimate the forward speed on landfalling storms in that part of the country but not sure if it would apply in this case. Anyhow, looks like the 00z NAM has mixing into the 850-875 mb range here on Tuesday afternoon but the wind fields decrease a bit by then as the system fills. If the wind fields aloft are underdone by even something like 10 kt then it could make all the difference between typical strong winds and something more impressive so needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I would imagine they're referring to the 12z run, but TWC shows the Euro has Sandy at 975 mb at landfall, while the 0z GFS has the landfall pressure at under 940 mb. That's horrible this close to landfall. One of these models will horribly bust on pressure. This could be very telling on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I would imagine they're referring to the 12z run, but TWC shows the Euro has Sandy at 975 mb at landfall, while the 0z GFS has the landfall pressure at under 940 mb. That's horrible this close to landfall. One of these models will horribly bust on pressure. This could be very telling on models. The last several runs have been sub-955mb, so it's not the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The last several runs have been sub-955mb, so it's not the ECMWF. I know they said the Euro, so I think it's their mistake, hopefully no one else caught on b/c we wouldn't want the public to rely on misinformation. Kim Cunningham even mentioned how the scenario was much different in terms of strength on the model. I know the 0z Euro showed a landfall of around 945 mb pressure, so this is cleared up, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks like the 0z GFS and EURO are about 50 miles apart on LF now. EURO has ~944mb at LF, GFS 948mb. Somewhere between Sandy Hook and Atlantic City will be ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It will be worse than 20-30 gusting to 50 here I can guarantee that. What you thinking winds wise in the Detroit-Toledo corridor? I personally thought 30-40 with 65+ mph gusts. Also on a sidenote to everyone in general I wonder what impact this will have on my job. No way will UPS be able to get packages from anywhere on the East Coast or ship it there for days so I wonder how much our workload will fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What you thinking winds wise in the Detroit-Toledo corridor? I personally thought 30-40 with 65+ mph gusts. Also on a sidenote to everyone in general I wonder what impact this will have on my job. No way will UPS be able to get packages from anywhere on the East Coast or ship it there for days so I wonder how much our workload will fall Add 5 to the first 2 and minus 5 from the last one. East of Toledo or North of Detroit could be more especially near the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm not quite sure I've seen a wind gust forecast map quite this impressive for NE OH land: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm not quite sure I've seen a wind gust forecast map quite this impressive for NE OH land: That's unreal. What's more impressive is the lack of hype here. Cleveland.com has not one article on the storm hitting Ohio ... a quick glance at all the local TV news channels also show websites void of any storm stories. Rain has begun here and should continue nonstop for the next few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It seems the media is a little gun shy these days with respect to the mess of last winters predictions. I am almost tempted to rent a chipper today for the mess of all the Ash trees which will fall with the winds comming, expecially when you factor the wind direction. Other notes will be the waves, soil errorsion and possible flooding (wind tide) for those near and close to the Erie shore line.... For us on the Norther side of the lake low water might be the story. Might have to get the kids out there to do some exproring in the mud. Never know what you might find. Time to batten down the hatches for everyone. Better to be prepared than caught with you pants down!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy looks nice this morning on visible... Must be right over the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GOES-14 1min imagery.... http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy looks nice this morning on visible... Must be right over the gulf stream. Better than what it looked like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Pressure down to 951 mb. This thing has a good chance to break some all-time state pressure records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Pressure down to 951 mb. This thing has a good chance to break some all-time state pressure records. Very impressive. New RGEM has it at 945mb at landfall tomorrow night north of Atlantic City. The onshore flow north of the center right into NYC is probably a near worst case scenario for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Very impressive. New RGEM has it at 945mb at landfall tomorrow night north of Atlantic City. The onshore flow north of the center right into NYC is probably a near worst case scenario for them. And it initialized the pressure too high. Models that have been closer on initialization have this down into the 930s at landfall so it will be very interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 6z HWRF had it in the 920s at landfall though it initialized too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 hard to imagine S lake MI having the same sea conditions as the the Atlantic has ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Gust potential looking pretty impressive at the 36hr mark on the new 4km WRF-NMM... 40kt gust potential already as far west as Detroit early tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Map showing the predicted landfall on the major models and direction of travel. Edit: Added the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Winds are already picking up here. Have had frequent gusts of 25-30 MPH throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 DTX keeps a mention of snow. I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 12z euro in and models have converged on taking the low inland to south central PA after landfall ....somewhere between 965 and 975 when it gets to that location. Looks like there will be the opportunity for a fairly narrow stripe of accumulating slush extending from around mansfield thru columbus and down thru WV. Basically the western fringe of heavier precip. Best time frame would probably be very late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Interesting if nothing else. The big story, however will be the sustained high winds for many hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 12z euro in and models have converged on taking the low inland to south central PA after landfall ....somewhere between 965 and 975 when it gets to that location. Looks like there will be the opportunity for a fairly narrow stripe of accumulating slush extending from around mansfield thru columbus and down thru WV. Basically the western fringe of heavier precip. Best time frame would probably be very late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Interesting if nothing else. The big story, however will be the sustained high winds for many hours. Yep, the high winds for such a long period of time is my concern. Could be a ton of power outages. Will schools close this far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ^^ forgot to say that is the 12z HWRF which was pretty much spot on at initialization, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yep, the high winds for such a long period of time is my concern. Could be a ton of power outages. Will schools close this far west? Speaking of which...ILN just hoisted a high wind watch for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Winds are already ramping up here! Gusts to 30mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 12z euro in and models have converged on taking the low inland to south central PA after landfall ....somewhere between 965 and 975 when it gets to that location. Looks like there will be the opportunity for a fairly narrow stripe of accumulating slush extending from around mansfield thru columbus and down thru WV. Basically the western fringe of heavier precip. Best time frame would probably be very late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Interesting if nothing else. The big story, however will be the sustained high winds for many hours. The 09z SREF mean take on it FWIW. WV mountains get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ^^ forgot to say that is the 12z HWRF which was pretty much spot on at initialization, fwiw. And it deepens Sandy to 933 at LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.