cyclone77 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Not looking good here. This is like a derecho hitting from the lake but lasting for hours instead of minutes. FXUS61 KCLE 272002 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 402 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND BE ABSORBED AS HURRICANE SANDY BECOMES EXTRA TROPICAL AND DEVELOPS INTO AN INTENSE STORM AS IT MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... RAIN HAS DIMINISHED OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEAR OR NORTHWEST OHIO WILL LIKELY MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS FARTHER EAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN SPREADING WEST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE USED MAV TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHT CHANCGES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE INTENSE REMAINS OF SANDY WILL MOVE INLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FROM CLE TO ERI. WITH THE LAKE NEAR 12-14 C EXPECT A WELL MIXED LAYER TO EXTEND TO THE LAKE SURFACE AND ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS OF 40-50 KNOTS TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD REACH 60 TO 70 MPH NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. RAIN WILL RESUME SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND GRADUALLY SPREAD WEST. RAINFALL WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN BANDS AND GENERALLY UPSLOPE CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE RAINFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY EAST THROUGH GEAUGA AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL PRECIPITATION SHOWING 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE. SOME FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SOIL ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS. Wow, that's gonna be cool to experience, but chances of losing power are quite high I'd imagine. Hope all you guys shoot some video of this over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'll be heading down to the lakefront to check it out if they do indeed get that big! Heading to IN/MI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm kinda tempted to head up to the IN/MI shore though that is a bit of a drive just to see waves. As am I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Heading to IN/MI? Possibly. At least down to areas that see good wave action from a N wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This is pretty crazy. Anyone remember what waves were like during GHD and some other big wind events? URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 400 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NORTH TO 30 KT SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO GALES TO 40 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. * SIGNIFICANT WAVES...5 TO 8 FT...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FT MONDAY AND TO 20 TO 25 FT TUESDAY MORNING. * OCCASIONAL WAVES...12 FT...BUILDING TO 18 FT MONDAY AND TO 33 FT TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 DTX mentioning snow accumulations on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 DTX mentioning snow accumulations on grassy surfaces. Monday Breezy. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain. Highs 41 to 45. North winds 10 to 20 mph...increasing to 20 to 30 mph...with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. Monday Night Windy. Cloudy with light snow likely and a chance of light rain. Accumulations up to a half inch. Lows 34 to 38. North winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Tuesday Breezy. Cloudy with light rain likely. Highs 41 to 45. Chance of rain 70 percent. Tuesday Night Cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows 35 to 39. Chance of rain 50 percent. Wednesday Cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs 44 to 48. Chance of rain 40 percent. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows 36 to 40. Chance of rain 30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 DTX mentioning snow accumulations on grassy surfaces. IWX thinking minor accumulations in the east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Zones already 30-40mph for monday night out here in the thumb, Waves on huron are going to be pretty epic. The water level right now is about 2 feet lower than last year, gonna be a good thing. The funneling of wind down saginaw bay could produce some huge impacts near bay city/saginaw. All the makings of a once in a lifetime event, but still so many questions about how big of an impact this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 DTX mentioning snow accumulations on grassy surfaces. Game 5 in Detroit Monday Night(If necessary) could be wild!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS seems to have better mixing on the western fringes compared to NAM. Would up the wind threat a bit if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wave height forecasts for Lakes Erie and Michigan. Tried to go with what looked like the peak times/wave heights for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just realized that there are going to be so many political yard signs blowing every which way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I noticed that Mike took the "disappointment" subtag off of the thread. Toronto looks to get in on some good action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I noticed that Mike took the "disappointment" subtag off of the thread. Toronto looks to get in on some good action. Yeah he should add "trees falling" and "roof missing" as tags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah he should add "trees falling" and "roof missing" as tags Zone area forecast for Cleveland / Cuyahoga County: Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely...mainly after midnight. Lows around 40. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. Sunday: Showers. Highs in the upper 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. Sunday Night: Showers. Breezy with lows in the upper 30s. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. Monday: Showers. Very windy with highs in the upper 40s. North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. Monday Night: Showers. Strong winds with lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. Tuesday: Showers. Very windy with highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 90 percent. Tuesday Night: Showers likely. Near steady temperature in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent. Wednesday: Rain. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 90 percent. Wednesday Night: Rain likely. Lows around 40. Chance of rain 70 percent. Thursday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 40s. Thursday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Friday: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 50s. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 ILN finally showing some interest. excerpt from AFD: BUT BACK TO THE BIG WEATHER STORY...AND THIS FORECAST PICKS UP TUESDAY MORNING WHEN MOST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT. SUB-970MB CYCLONE WILL ALREADY BE FILLING/SLOWING DOWN AT 12Z TUESDAY AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER...BUT AT 5 SIGMA BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...THE SURFACE PRESSURES /AND THUS WIND FIELDS/ WILL CERTAINLY BE EXCEEDINGLY RARE THUS WE MUST BE OPEN TO UNIQUE AND RARE IMPACTS...AND FOR OUR AREA THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND RARE ACCUMULATING OCTOBER SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting to note ILN also stated that western portions of the area will see higher wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Probably for the best.......... I saw that Romney cancelled an event in VA and will be coming to OH instead ... he might want to rethink that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wxrisk first guess. https://www.facebook...439206976126566 Nothing to see west of the apps...move along folks. But seriously, if we get 4" of rain, our wind speed will most likely exceed 30mph. Heck that doesn't even show Pittsburgh in the 30+ sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Southern Ontario is in for some fun winds I'm thinking : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I saw that Romney cancelled an event in VA and will be coming to OH instead ... he might want to rethink that! I think his magic underwear will protect him from the winds. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wxrisk first guess. https://www.facebook...439206976126566 Nothing to see west of the apps...move along folks. But seriously, if we get 4" of rain, our wind speed will most likely exceed 30mph. Heck that doesn't even show Pittsburgh in the 30+ sustained winds. That wind map will be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That wind map will be wrong I think those might be peak sustained winds. If that's the case, it could be pretty close. I could see 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 50 mph into western Pennsylvania, which would fall below the 30 mph threshold. And this would agree with the official NWS forecast. I do think there will be area along the Great Lakes, however, that will see sustained winds of 30 to 50 mph, with occasional gusts to 65+ mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think those might be peak sustained winds. If that's the case, it could be pretty close. I could see 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 50 mph into western Pennsylvania, which would fall below the 30 mph threshold. And this would agree with the official NWS forecast. I do think there will be area along the Great Lakes, however, that will see sustained winds of 30 to 50 mph, with occasional gusts to 65+ mph. It will be worse than 20-30 gusting to 50 here I can guarantee that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This will be the station to watch for peak wind gusts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBKL.html Unfortunately the buoy off Cleveland hasn't been reporting the past month, so your next bet is this one near the Erie Islands: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=45005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It looks like this could potentially be Toronto's biggest storm since Hazel in 1954, although I doubt it will be quite as severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just realized that there are going to be so many political yard signs blowing every which way. Add Halloween decorations to the list too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The potential flash flooding/street flooding threat can't be ignored here either. There are going to be quite a few clogged storm drains from all the leaves that have just come down, with water having no where to go. NAM simulated radar has rain beginning late tomorrow morning and continuing straight through the entire run which is incredible. We've had over 12 inches of rain since September 1st, so the ground is quite saturated, which will exacerbate the falling tree threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This is pretty crazy. Anyone remember what waves were like during GHD and some other big wind events? * SIGNIFICANT WAVES...5 TO 8 FT...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FT MONDAY AND TO 20 TO 25 FT TUESDAY MORNING. * OCCASIONAL WAVES...12 FT...BUILDING TO 18 FT MONDAY AND TO 33 FT TUESDAY MORNING. There have been numerous events over the past several years to feature wave heights up to around 25ft...not so sure about 30ft+ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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