snowstormcanuck Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Probability of this being of any kind of consequence to most of us in this subforum is low, both because of how many days out it is and the anomalous magnitude of the storm being depicted by the GEM and EURO. Still, IF it were to occur in this fashion, it'd be an elite fall storm, possibly the biggest since the 2010 Octobomb. GFS remains obstinate. But its ensembles are a little more amenable to the idea of a bigger storm impacting the EC of the US, and possibly further west. I would say about half at the minimum show a "norlun" type setup, with an inverted sfc trough funnelling Atlantic moisture westerly, even if the core of Sandy remains offshore. I have to agree with Stebo that the OP GFS just doesn't look right with its completely OTS solution. With blocking over the north Atlantic to the north of Sandy, it seems unlikely such a progressive solution materializes. That doesn't mean the EURO/GGEM scenario is correct either. But I'd say at a minimum, given the upper level setup, Sandy should track near the GoM (Maine) rather than near Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 00z Euro ensemble mean was farther west than previously, more in line with the op run. Euro ensembles tend to score the best in longer ranges but of course, day 7 is day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Complete fantasy at this range, but still fun to look at...0z Euro snowfall maps found here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/36016-central-pa-thread-spring-like-weather-now-but/page__st__420#entry1804745 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just when the GGEM goes east, the GFS ensembles come west. Complex scenario at work...certainly wouldn't write off the potential yet especially eastern Lakes/OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Many here should at least hope that Sandy comes in at such an angle to stall the incoming trough. The more NW Sandy trends, I think the more likely that is to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Complete fantasy at this range, but still fun to look at...0z Euro snowfall maps found here: http://www.americanw...20#entry1804745 lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 EURO looks like it's going to hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 OMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro keeps holding serve and the board's servers are going to melt The ECMWF is now the outlier. Not really. Still has plenty of support (ukie, nogaps, gem prior to the 12z run, some gfs ensembles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think if some of those GEFS members were to pan out, a solid 2-4 inches of rain would not be ruled out along with very strong winds to boot. Mike I know it's early but any thoughts as of yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 But it doesn't look anymore right than the GFS. Looks like it is over intensifying to fast. Probably should be farther north and weaker in a merge situation. These barotropic-baroclinic transitions aren't the easiest thing to model though. It'll be interesting to watch the forward speed later... often these seem to be modeled too slowly at farther north latitudes but perhaps that is more perception than reality. For those wanting to get this farther west, that wave progged into the central US this weekend needs to go to town and amplify as much as possible... it also wouldn't hurt if Sandy isn't several hundred miles offshore at that point. There'd be a shot for it to slingshot pretty far west in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 But it doesn't look anymore right than the GFS. Looks like it is over intensifying to fast. Probably should be farther north and weaker in a merge situation. Incorrect, Hoosier defined it nicely as to why this will not be weakening as it merges. Furthermore there is much more support to the Euro solution, several of the GFS ensemble members are well left of the operational, when that happens it needs to be taken into great consideration. Hell the GFS ensemble mean has a 985mb low into Long Island, for that to be shown this far out is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 euro holding serve and the gfs mean trending west are notable...who cares abou the GGEM. Odds of a big east coast storm look to be increasing. Stebo has an outside shot at some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Furthermore there is much more support to the Euro solution, several of the GFS ensemble members are well left of the operational, when that happens it needs to be taken into great consideration. Hell the GFS ensemble mean has a 985mb low into Long Island, for that to be shown this far out is huge. To be fair, see below with respect to the GEFS mean. Only 4 of the members actually capture Sandy wholesale, another 4-5 develop a secondary near that spot, the rest are solidly OTS with a minor event. A few massive runs in the GEFS skew the mean, really doesn't mean much at all. At this time frame and with such a highly variable set of events which may occur, not uncommon to see large shifts in the ensemble mean itself which means nothing overall. Regardless, too early for anyone to claim victory or defeat. The relatively consistency of the Euro and its ensembles are encouraging no doubt. Still a ways to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 To be fair, see below with respect to the GEFS mean. Regardless, too early for anyone to claim victory or defeat. The relatively consistency of the Euro and its ensembles are encouraging no doubt. Still a ways to go... True, there is the secondary variable of a coastal low forming irregardless to the phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 euro holding serve and the gfs mean trending west are notable...who cares abou the GGEM. Odds of a big east coast storm look to be increasing. Stebo has an outside shot at some light snow. Light snow is better than no snow, although I am looking more at the wind potential than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just noticed the "disappointment" sub-tag. It's not winter yet Mike, too soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 lol snow and wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think if some of those GEFS members were to pan out, a solid 2-4 inches of rain would not be ruled out along with very strong winds to boot. Mike I know it's early but any thoughts as of yet? I think the GFS is wrong, but the EURO is probably pushing it too much on the other side. Prelim thoughts: predominantly an EC event, with some scraps for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just noticed the "disappointment" sub-tag. It's not winter yet Mike, too soon... I'd love to get the disappointment out of the way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 00z NAM sorta looks Euroish, although there's always that hesitancy to buy what the NAM is showing at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 FWIW, some of the 21z SREF would probably give the GGEM from the other day a run for its money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 FWIW, some of the 21z SREF would probably give the GGEM from the other day a run for its money. indeed. I hope for your sake this thing gets into "long range" RUC time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It would take a lot to get notable impacts from Sandy or the extra-tropical "remnants" of Sandy into this subforum, BUT the GFS was close to phasing Sandy with the shortwave over the Ohio Valley Sunday morning: Even though the GFS hooked Sandy hard right at this point, it was a bit more amplified in the western US and looked closer to the Euro's handling of the central US trough. It took Sandy right into a block after 108 hours which seemed suspect. I'm not trying to argue for impacts in our subforum right now...but, it wouldn't surprise me if the next run or two of the GFS begins looking more like the Euro or 0z Canadian, which were major northeast impacts and were much closer to clipping our subforum with precip and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Any threat of lake effect rain/snow showers this weekend from the NW flow behind the whole mess on the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Any threat of lake effect rain/snow showers this weekend from the NW flow behind the whole mess on the east coast? Yes, lake response looks probable though details obviously up in the air with uncertainties on track/timing of deep low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 0z EURO takes Sandy further west, brushes eastern end of the subforum - including much of eastern Ontario. Not good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 For those interested in having this storm impact their back yard, I'd say the 0z suite as a whole was an improvement over the last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 A couple of the 0z GFS ensemble members bring light precip to Indiana. Might be snow, might not be. So there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 MKX mentioned the possibility of lake effect precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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