CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 12z GGEM is a giant kick in the balls. After we appeared to be moving somewhat towards a model consensus the Canadian takes a dump. If the EC comes in OTS I think the tone of this board will start to change rather quickly. Well there should never be much excitement 7-8 days out. You just set yourself up for disappointment. This is something where you really wouldn't know until like 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 12z GGEM is a giant kick in the balls. After we appeared to be moving somewhat towards a model consensus the Canadian takes a dump. If the EC comes in OTS I think the tone of this board will start to change rather quickly. Its the GGEM when do we really rely on that model past 120 hrs? Doesnt have the best track record and if im not mistaken has a known suppresive bias towards east coast systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well there should never be much excitement 7-8 days out. You just set yourself up for disappointment. This is something where you really wouldn't know until like 3 days out. And isn't this part of the point for ensemble forecasting? It smooths out OP models' run to run discontinuity in the medium and long range. There is no point in getting all riled up in one direction based on individual operational models in the day 7 range. They are fun to look at, sure, and picking out model trends is important and fun, but ensemble forecasting is where it's at for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 UKIE is also OTS. Similar to the GGEM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12Z NOGAPS @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Dsnowx53 your absolutely right emsembles are more accurate at this point really shedding light on a better idea of track/strength. Still too far out to say whats gonna happen but, the euro has been very consistent on producing a monster for us in the northeast without much of a waver. Still early but all cards still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z GEM Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12Z NOGAPS @ 120 Nogaps being a suppresive model and showing a much closer solution to the coast compared to some globals and GFS peaks my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 And isn't this part of the point for ensemble forecasting? It smooths out OP models' run to run discontinuity in the medium and long range. There is no point in getting all riled up in one direction based on individual operational models in the day 7 range. They are fun to look at, sure, and picking out model trends is important and fun, but ensemble forecasting is where it's at for this range. We've got ourselves something now. The ensemble trends are much more important/alarming than OP model waffling at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Honestly I would be more than happy to let this one go. Very few seem to understand how devastating a direct hit or even close glancing blow would be for most of the area from a 940s/950s mb hybrid monster. This wouldn't be a run-of-the-mill nor'easter or blizzard. Severe to devastating flooding, winds, surge (that plus the full moon), feet of plastering wet snow inland which would wipe out trees/power lines, you name it. The Canadian yesterday was showing 120 KNOT+ wind gusts at 30 feet above the ground (likely overdone, but the winds would still be enough to cause major damage). Imagine the destruction that would occur. This outcome isn't what we want, trust me. That said, anything is still possible due to the blocking upstream, intricacies of the various shortwaves, backing of the overall flow, and track of the TS. Keep in mind the wild fluctuations before the 12/25/10 storm, and then add in a tropical system. We won't know for a few days what the likely final outcome will be, and by then it may be too late for many to take enough precautions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12 Z GFS ensemble means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 We've got ourselves something now. The ensemble trends are much more important/alarming than OP model waffling at this range. Agreed about the trends within the Ensembles. 985 mb just east of LI on the GEFS at day 7 is a pretty strong signal for a storm during this timeframe, considering this is a smoothed out mean. There must be a bunch of amplified and westward members within that Ensemble Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Oh my, the GFS mean is exaclty like the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 12z GGEM still has the trough capturing Sandy beyond 144hrs. It will come down to timing as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Oh my, the GFS mean is exaclty like the Euro! Not exactly... the 12z GEFS Mean has a much weaker system than the 00z ECMWF because it's a smoothed out mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Honestly I would be more than happy to let this one go. Very few seem to understand how devastating a direct hit or even close glancing blow would be for most of the area from a 940s/950s mb hybrid monster. This wouldn't be a run-of-the-mill nor'easter or blizzard. Severe to devastating flooding, winds, surge (that plus the full moon), feet of plastering wet snow inland which would wipe out trees/power lines, you name it. The Canadian yesterday was showing 120 KNOT+ wind gusts at 30 feet above the ground (likely overdone, but the winds would still be enough to cause major damage). Imagine the destruction that would occur. This outcome isn't what we want, trust me. That said, anything is still possible due to the blocking upstream, intricacies of the various shortwaves, backing of the overall flow, and track of the TS. Keep in mind the wild fluctuations before the 12/25/10 storm, and then add in a tropical system. We won't know for a few days what the likely final outcome will be, and by then it may be too late for many to take enough precautions. Well said. Even with the impressive blocking modelled downstream in the N ATL, it's important to note that many of the solutions depicted by the ECM and CMC in the past two cycles are 1 in 50 year events. A sub 950mb or sub 940mb storm veering NNW/NW toward the Mid atlantic or New England coast is something that may happen maybe once in a lifetime on average. It's difficult enough getting a a tropical cyclone to run the gauntlet due north along the East Coast, nevermind cutting NW into the region. You've got to have near ideal trough interaction w/ an amplifying short wave preferrably with the mid/upper flow aligned in a SSW-NNE or even S-N fashion. One of the main problems I see with this event is not the Atlantic pattern - we have sufficient blocking to the north and east, but the short wave in the Great Lakes may not dig far enough SE to turn the flow so that Sandy tracks northwest. Also the stronger Sand becomes near the Bahamas, the more likely a weakness can be found out to sea thru the ATL ridge. Those rooting for an EC hit may want a weaker storm near the Bahamas, a more amplified US short wave, with intensification on its route north. Right now I think it's too early to say one way or another - all options still on the table. However, at this point it's best to err on the conservative side given it is a potentially 50 year event we're discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, of course, I am referring to placement of the low and timiing. Amazing similarities. Not exactly... the 12z GEFS Mean has a much weaker system than the 00z ECMWF because it's a smoothed out mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well said. Even with the impressive blocking modelled downstream in the N ATL, it's important to note that many of the solutions depicted by the ECM and CMC in the past two cycles are 1 in 50 year events. A sub 950mb or sub 940mb storm veering NNW/NW toward the Mid atlantic or New England coast is something that may happen maybe once in a lifetime on average. It's difficult enough getting a a tropical cyclone to run the gauntlet due north along the East Coast, nevermind cutting NW into the region. You've got to have near ideal trough interaction w/ an amplifying short wave preferrably with the mid/upper flow aligned in a SSW-NNE or even S-N fashion. One of the main problems I see with this event is not the Atlantic pattern - we have sufficient blocking to the north and east, but the short wave in the Great Lakes may not dig far enough SE to turn the flow so that Sandy tracks northwest. Also the stronger Sand becomes near the Bahamas, the more likely a weakness can be found out to sea thru the ATL ridge. Those rooting for an EC hit may want a weaker storm near the Bahamas, a more amplified US short wave, with intensification on its route north. Right now I think it's too early to say one way or another - all options still on the table. However, at this point it's best to err on the conservative side given it is a potentially 50 year event we're discussing. Actually I think a very possible scenario is an energy "hand-off/linkage" due to the incredible amount of energy in the pattern. We may have Sandy going out to sea but another impressive nor'easter spin up near the VA cape, via the s/w energy, extensive block, and interaction w/ Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Honestly I would be more than happy to let this one go. Very few seem to understand how devastating a direct hit or even close glancing blow would be for most of the area from a 940s/950s mb hybrid monster. This wouldn't be a run-of-the-mill nor'easter or blizzard. Severe to devastating flooding, winds, surge (that plus the full moon), feet of plastering wet snow inland which would wipe out trees/power lines, you name it. The Canadian yesterday was showing 120 KNOT+ wind gusts at 30 feet above the ground (likely overdone, but the winds would still be enough to cause major damage). Imagine the destruction that would occur. This outcome isn't what we want, trust me. That said, anything is still possible due to the blocking upstream, intricacies of the various shortwaves, backing of the overall flow, and track of the TS. Keep in mind the wild fluctuations before the 12/25/10 storm, and then add in a tropical system. We won't know for a few days what the likely final outcome will be, and by then it may be too late for many to take enough precautions. While nobody is routing for damage and certainly not for the loss of life, the fact of the matter is we have no say in what's going to happen. We just watch in awww as mother nature puts on a show. As weather enthusiasts most of us live and die with extreme weather and a once in a life time storm/scenario is not something that a lof of us would be willing to pass up just because the damage would be or could be extensive. I feel a lot better about the 12z model suite as a whole. My post after the GGEM was a tad on my part but luckily the 12z GFS ensemble means is progressing towards an onshore solution. As long as the major players remain on the 12z ECMWF I feel fairly confident going forward that this won't be a non event. I agree with most of the big time mets on this site. The overall pattern is supportive of a major east coast cyclogenisis event. If not for the Tropical Cyclone Sandy then odds are we would still be dealing with some type of noreaster. Whether or not a week from now a sub 950mb bomb is sitting over us is yet to be seen, but as many have said, the trends in the Euro ensembles and now the GFS ensembles can not be ignored. Unfortunatly I won't be able to respond much as I am still 5 posted and starting to run out of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Actually I think a very possible scenario is an energy "hand-off/linkage" due to the incredible amount of energy in the pattern. We may have Sandy going out to sea but another impressive nor'easter spin up near the VA cape, via the s/w energy, extensive block, and interaction w/ Sandy. Meh.. Sub 950 or bust ;-) On a serious note, interesting to see the GEFS look like that. Can't wait to see the individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Meh.. Sub 950 or bust ;-) On a serious note, interesting to see the GEFS look like that. Can't wait to see the individuals. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, of course, I am referring to placement of the low and timiing. Amazing similarities. Yeah, that is a little scary how they have the low in the same general region 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Wow, it looks like a lot of them are really amplified. Big change with the GEFS. Look at how many of them capture Sandy and tuck the system westward near the coast. Most of them also have a pretty notable storm system impacting the region as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Wow, it looks like a lot of them are really amplified. Big change with the GEFS. Yep. Red flag for the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, the Euro is already faster with the TC through 60 hours, not sure what the implications will be afterwards but it is noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, the Euro is already faster with the TC through 60 hours, not sure what the implications will be afterwards but it is noticeable. I know the GGEM was quick too... Let's see how it relates to the incoming Trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, the Euro is already faster with the TC through 60 hours, not sure what the implications will be afterwards but it is noticeable. That would probably mean a phase, IF any, at a more north latitude. I think the GGEM was out to sea because it was so fast and there wasn't enough time for the trough to phase with it in a location that would have brought it towards our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 at 84, Sandy is west of 00z by a good amount. The trough looks a bit faster as well edit: Hr 78 i meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 At 78 hours, as a whole, the Central US trough is farther south and east...while the TC is a little farther northwest. This would seem a good thing, but the ridge axis over the Northeast at the time is a decent bit weaker than the 00z run, with the N ATL ULL farther south and west. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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