Kaner587 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If we saw the Euro solution verify, then I think that it would be the first time a TC phased with a trough while under the exit region of the STJ. The Euro jet forecast more resembles the jet signature with our strongest cold season lows. Adding a TC to this mix would take things to a level of rarity that would be remarkable. Just the fact that this is a possibility is mind blowing. Really lends credence to the idea floating around that the model ouputs (GGEM/EC) are just about the upper limit of what can occur on this planet. Crazy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The ggem is like days faster than the gfs. Is that a symptom of the system being tugged west by a different s/w? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Many of the hurricane models aren't made to handle the baroclinic environment. The just follow the steering flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just the fact that this is a possibility is mind blowing. Really lends credence to the idea floating around that the model ouputs (GGEM/EC) are just about the upper limit of what can occur on this planet. Crazy stuff Per the 06z NoGaps...the Jets/Miami game would be quite interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Many of the hurricane models aren't made to handle the baroclinic environment. The just follow the steering flow. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Per the 06z NoGaps...the Jets/Miami game would be quite interesting: Looks a little breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Looks a little breezy 80 yd. FG potential for team coming from the north end!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 By when would all the features we need me sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Could be a toupee alert day. 80 yd. FG potential for team coming from the north end!!! Looks a little breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 80 yd. FG potential for team coming from the north end!!! Namath would have no problems passing if he was still playing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Some improvements can be noted on the GFS through 84 hrs (if you're looking for the big phase solution). Should be noted, though, that its very different with its handling of the ULL over the N Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Some improvements can be noted on the GFS through 84 hrs (if you're looking for the big phase solution). Should be noted, though, that its very different with its handling of the ULL over the N Atlantic I agree I think the ULL is closer to the 00z Euro position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Trying at 96...but TC is still pretty Far East. Definitely some interesting developments with the Central US energy...looked to be moving towards a more energetic euro-like solution for a few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1131 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 ...TRPCL CYCLONE SANDY... T.S. SANDY WHICH IS CURRENTLY A 45 KT SYSTEM IN THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE NNE. THE CURRENT NHC FCST SUGGESTS SANDY WILL PASS THRU JAMAICA AS A CAT 1 HURCN ON WED EVENING WITH SLGT WEAKENING THEREAFTER ONCE PUSHING INTO THE ERN CUBA. IN TERMS OF THE FCST TRACK...THE MODELS MOST SIMILAR TO THE NHC TRACK ARE THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE FORMER LIES JUST TO THE W OF THE TRACK WHILE THE LATTER RESIDES JUST TO THE E. THUS...A GENERAL BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS BEST SUITS THE CURRENT HURRICANE TRACK. ...UPR LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER... MID-LEVEL VORTICITY PUSHING NEWRD ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF THE WRN CONUS TROF SHOULD CONTINUE TO ATTAIN NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE CLOSING OFF ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO THEN SHIFT NEWRD WITH STRENGTHENING ALOFT ACRS CNTRL CANADA. THE 12Z/06Z NAM HAS SLOWED IN EWRD PROGRESSION COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY THU. GENERAL AGREEMENT ALOFT EXISTS ACRS THE BOARD WITH ALL GUIDANCE DEPICTING A 534-DM LOW CENTER BY 26/0000Z ALTHOUGH COMPLEXITIES EXIST AS THIS ENERGY GAINS LATITUDE TOWARD HUDSON BAY. ...LNGWV TROF TRANSLATING EWRD THRU THE CNTRL CONUS... ...DEVELOPING SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE... A WELL ESTABLISHED LNGWV TROF WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE E DURING THE FCST PERIOD WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HGT FALLS EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY/MID THU. GIVEN THE SHARP AMPLITUDE OF THIS EJECTING TROF...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EWRD WHILE A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN GRT LAKES. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE NAM INCONSISTENCIES ARE WITH THE TRAILING PIECE OF ENERGY CROSSING THE CNTRL ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THERE ARE TWO CAMPS OF SOLNS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS LNGWV TROF. THE FASTER SIDE INCLUDES THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 00Z UKMET WHILE THE SLOWER SIDE INCLUDES THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN/03Z SREF MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The trough looks much better, it's trying to dive in. Don't know if it will do it this run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 ORECAST COMPLEXITIES ARISE LATE IN THE PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY DURING DAYS 6-7. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ON THE STORM. GLOBAL MODELS FEATURE A TRANSIENT OMEGA BLOCK...THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOC UPPER LOW FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GETS STEERED ALONG BY THIS FEATURES...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GGEM FARTHEST WEST WITH A FUJIWARA EFFECT...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. AS FOR THE GEFS...7 OF THE 21 MEMBERS ARE NOW HINTING AT SOME SORT OF INTERACTIONS WITH THE MID LATITUDE TROF ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE LOW TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 1039 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY THAT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS STORM MAY VERY WELL JUST MOVE OUT TO SEA AND HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ANY POTENTIAL IMPACT IS STILL AROUND A WEEK AWAY...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Close, but no dice. GFS moving towards the Euro's handling of things though ... pretty clear when comparing 00/06 and this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Im going with the euro with this system due to the fact that last time it handled a tropical cyclone impacting our area it did the best by far. I know this situation is different but i think whatever happens with this storm it'll be alot close to what the euro portrays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Mount Holly has issued its first briefing wrt the storm, over 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Mount Holly has issued its first briefing wrt the storm, over 5 days out. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Eh, we all know what the GFS stands for.... Good for sh*t! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Can you provide the web address? http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Could be a toupee alert day. Going to jets game with my uncle who has a terrible toupee, LOL, ill take pics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Can you provide the web address? Not sure if this helps, since it still links you to the .pdf anyway, but: This is the "briefing" page. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/emerman.php Click on "briefing packages" to get to the link below. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Eh, we all know what the GFS stands for.... Good for sh*t! It's actually one of the better models out there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z GGEM is OTS http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's actually one of the better models out there.... I guess when you compare it to the jma/kma/canadian/nam etc. It is but we've seen many plunders with the gfs as compared to euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z GGEM is OTS http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 12z GGEM is a giant kick in the balls. After we appeared to be moving somewhat towards a model consensus the Canadian takes a dump. If the EC comes in OTS I think the tone of this board will start to change rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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