blizzardof09 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Bluewave if the storm did happen as the euro portrays it albeit still in fantasy land, this would really disasterous impacts to coastal areas and places along the coast correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 0z Euro Ensemble Mean has the block over Newfoundland by 168hrs. This is forces Sandy to phase with the trough: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Bluewave if the storm did happen as the euro portrays it albeit still in fantasy land, this would really disasterous impacts to coastal areas and places along the coast correct? The sections of coastline that were exposed to onshore winds while the storm is getting pulled in would really take a beating if the Euro idea actually verified. The exact location and timing of this would be crucial especially if it coincided with high tide during the full moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Tell you what, if this plays out like some of the models are showing things are going to get really interesting around here in the Sunday into Tuesday timeframe. The impacts from this storm could be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The Euro Ensembles being that amplified and close to the coast is the first thing that catches my eye as far as this storm being a potential reality and not just a fantasy medium range system. We'll have to watch this carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think the key to getting Sandy to phase with the incoming trough will be her position while crossing the Bahamas. The Euro is going with a further to the west Bahamas track while the GFS is more east. Any westward trending to GFS runs in the next few days would allow a possible phasing solution to occur on the GFS. The difference between a capture or an escape will be really small. Euro GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 EPS Control run of the ECMWF looks pretty much the same as the operational. Food for thought. NAO is already pretty decently negative. the AO was at its lowest point since before June...Look for some kind of wintry event soon whether it is some snow mixed in or near record low temperatures coming soon to a backyard near you...October's AO index will end up quite negative...A good sign for the upcoming winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think the UK Met is heading towards a non-US models phasing solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Freebie Euro Ensembles @ 168 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's pretty funny that they picked a fictional Sandy for the drill in the October 1997. http://www.weca.org/SET/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 6z GEFS Much closer than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Heres the individual members. Looks like a shotgun pattern. Plus if you count them, your missing half the members. They are all over in Africa. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's pretty funny that they picked a fictional Sandy for the drill in the October 1997. http://www.weca.org/SET/ See what they get for screwing around? Those guys have some nerve trying to be prepared and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 HPC is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 See what they get for screwing around? Those guys have some nerve trying to be prepared and all. Yeah, none of the seasonal forecasts had us getting all the way to the S storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If the Euro solution pans out, the satellite imagery this bomb will be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Got this from the Mid Atlantic thread. Wes The european ens has come quite a bit west and now gives much more support to the ecmwf making this a really interesting forecast. The blocking the ens mean shows and the negative tilt trough increase the odds of the storm getting captured by the upper trough so I think Jason's (CWG) odds of over a 50% chance of someone along the east coast being impacted by the storm is now a pretty good call. We're still so far from the event lots can change but the strong blocking makes amplification of the approaching trough more likely than not which may make the overall pattern a little more predictable than normal. Still, the timing of the amplification and the how fast and where the storm initially tracks will help decide where the system actually goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Much closer than previous runs Lots of members must have the phase to get the mean that close to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The new arw run on ewall looks pretty awesome if only it was reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Still several days until the exact track of the system gets resolved, but i think we're two or so days away from knowing if this is legitimate or not. Two important features that have been fluctuating dramatically on guidance are the ridge in the E PAC and associated PAC energy (which will remain a huge uncertainty until correctly sampled) and the NW Atlantic ridge interaction with the early-period Newfoundland ULL -- which eventually slides southeast and helps develop a huge block over NF. That tremendous block which is now appearing on globals and ensembles is a huge feature, as it essentially both forces the Central US energy under the TC ULL, but also stops it from moving anywhere but northwest at that point. Just glancing at last nights Euro, you can see Sandy literally running into a brick wall. As the energy from the Central US slides underneath her she is tugged north and west and subject to rapid strengthening. Paying attention to global ensembles will be key -- as well as carefully watching the TC over the next 48+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The new arw run on ewall looks pretty awesome if only it was reliable. Reliable is the last word used when it comes to those super high resolution models at the end of their periods (72-84 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Reliable is the last word used when it comes to those super high resolution models at the end of their periods (72-84 hours). Go look at the new srefs you'll get a kick out of em john, pretty impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 HPC ...POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... UPDATED THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 USING THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH A SMALL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TO LEND MORE DEFINITION TO THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NATION. USED THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY THROUGH DAY 5, WITH A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7 BASED ON THE ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/23 GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF SANDY ONCE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE SEVERAL RUNS OF CONTINUITY NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS LESS STABLE. THERE HAVE BEEN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM CAMP FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES, PUTTING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS IN A BROADER FRAMEWORK WITH THEIR TRACK OF SANDY WELL OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. WILL BE UPDATING THE TRACK OF SANDY THROUGH DAY 5 FOR THE FINAL PACKAGE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE NEW NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST, AND ITS BEHAVIOR AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW THEREAFTER AS PER OUR HOTLINE COORDINATION. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z tropical models still with a sharp NE turn after 30 N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Id say the majority of these are GFS data tropical models however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Id say the majority of these are GFS data tropical models however. Yeah...figured that was known but I guess it's worth the disclaimer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Id also worry that the high-res models missing some of the synoptic players on the field later on that could let this slide east or get captured. Yeah...figured that was known but I guess it's worth the disclaimer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 0z GGEM ensemble mean Fwiw, the Nam at 81 hours is west and near the east coast of Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If we saw the Euro solution verify, then I think that it would be the first time a TC phased with a trough while under the exit region of the STJ. The Euro jet forecast more resembles the jet signature with our strongest cold season lows. Adding a TC to this mix would take things to a level of rarity that would be remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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