tmagan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 NHC has Sandy reaching hurricane status by the time it reaches Jamaica. What is the difference between a 70 mph tropical storm and a 80 mph hurricane? Not much unless it rapidly intensifies. Being a mountainous island, not like Hispaniola though, the flooding aspect is the biggest threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 00z Canadian= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 00z Canadian= Bye NYC, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The CMC really hooks sandy back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The CMC really hooks sandy back in Apparently Scorpion of Mortal Kombat lives in NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 l-o-l at this trough amplification through the TN Valley and off the coast at 132 hours. My goodness. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 When I see all the discussion about central pressure's off global model readings, I'm reminded of this discussion: HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 TWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ONE AIR FORCE AND ONE NOAA...ARE AGAIN TONIGHT SUPPLYING VERY VALUABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. BOTH PLANES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY FALLING AND IS NOW NEAR 942 MB...BUT THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED YET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. IRENE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND IS NOW OVER OPEN WATERS. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IT APPEARS THAT THE EYEWALL IS CONTRACTING. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND THE WARM WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA A POWERFUL HURRICANE. IN FACT...THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF SHOWS A VERY INTENSE CYCLONE APPROACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS READY TO INTERACT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IRENE HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT NORTHWARD WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES OR PASSES NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...GIVING NO REASON TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE U.S. WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 28.3N 77.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 30.0N 77.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 31.8N 77.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 33.7N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 36.0N 76.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 42.0N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0000Z 51.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0000Z 58.0N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 When I see all the discussion about central pressure's off global model readings, I'm reminded of this discussion: A few of the globals have shown some of the most extreme pressure fall situations today that I think i've seen in my time following meteorology. One could argue that the 12z Euro solution was teetering on the edges of what is actually possible this time of year at this part of the globe. A 929mb surface low east of Long Island in October would be one of the most prolific events we'd see in our lifetimes. I think the Canadian just came in with another 930mb solution as well..those type of numbers are extremely suspect to say the least. That's not to say the storm wouldn't be strong/powerful/etc given the upper air set up (which is extremely amplified on all of these runs i'm speaking about)...but the pressure getting down to those numbers is extremely unlikely if not totally unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 l-o-l at this trough amplification through the TN Valley and off the coast at 132 hours. My goodness. http://meteocentre.c...PN_132_0000.gif The storm would be coming in from the east if that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Big signal when the NOGAPS goes bonkers. Atownstormwatcher approves of this message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Big signal when the NOGAPS goes bonkers. Atownstormwatcher approves of this message Atownwxwatcher and how did my name get brought into this? I have not posted in eons.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Atownwxwatcher and how did my name get brought into this? I have not posted in eons.... You preached about the nogaps' progressive bias the last 2 years, don't play dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You preached about the nogaps' progressive bias the last 2 years, don't play dumb Regardless if i have not posted here in a long time i still do not understand why you would even bring my name up.... That is what i was referencing ...nothing about the model.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Regardless if i have not posted here in a long time i still do not understand why you would even bring my name up.... That is what i was referencing ...nothing about the model.... I think he was just joking around..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro is rolling in, will it show another bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Here's the CMC zoomed in for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Not sure you can compare Irene, which was purely tropical and thus SSTs mattered a lot more, vs this potential situation which would involve a potential baroclinic hybrid bomb...so deep pressures at high latitudes are theoretically more possible. Assuming there's a full phase, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Those are 120kt 10m winds off the coast of the Northeast. Despite the fact that it's in la la land, one of the most extreme model guidance solutions i've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro now wants to try and phase with the first piece of energy..it's got a completely different upper air pattern in the Central/Western US than the 12z run did. Also the ridge in the central/northwest Atlantic is a good bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 120...yeah that doesn't look pretty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro now wants to try and phase with the first piece of energy..it's got a completely different upper air pattern in the Central/Western US than the 12z run did. Also the ridge in the central/northwest Atlantic is a good bit weaker. That bad or good? I need sleep cant believe I'm stayin up for a storm in october. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That bad or good? I need sleep cant believe I'm stayin up for a storm in october. Neither, really...the ridge being weaker in the Atlantic is bad as it doesn't force the storm west like the 12z run...but the energy is more energetic in the Central US which might just surge southeast and phase with the TC anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Trough is diving in at 132. Looks like its phasing to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 One things for sure, it's definitely faster than the 12z run...which almost kept the TC waiting in the Southwest Atlantic until a shortwave could phase with it. I would call that solution highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Neither, really...the ridge being weaker in the Atlantic is bad as it doesn't force the storm west like the 12z run...but the energy is more energetic in the Central US which might just surge southeast and phase with the TC anyways. Gotchya, so what'd it end up doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Gotchya, so what'd it end up doing? It's only out to 132 ... but I would be surprised if it didn't phase at this point. Not exactly sure how far northwest the surface low will come. Could be similar to the ensemble mean which phased but kept the surface low farther offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Phase at 144..looks like the surface low is down to 960 something east of Hatteras. The trough over the Great Lakes is starting to get involved now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Major impacts by day 7. Sandy is doing a backwards C track along the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Phase at 144..looks like the surface low is down to 960 something east of Hatteras. The trough over the Great Lakes is starting to get involved now. Oh dear. lol. Here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sounds pretty good? Not sure if i want this kinda storm though for us on the island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.