Drz1111 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 An old product, but a goodie, and relevant for the first time in a long time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 @NYCityAlerts: NYC: *Local News* hurricane sandy may hit NYC next week sunday. Winds expected @ about 70-100 MPH. Mayer says there may be evacuations NY01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 An old product, but a goodie, and relevant for the first time in a long time: Not sure how this is relevant? This map is just based solely on oceanic heat content. That will have little if any bearing on Sandy by the time it gets up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy looks like shes firing up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The 12z GGEM looks really crazy for tri-state area. Worse than the GFS. Anyone know what the 12z UKMET does between 120-144hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro! thats from a few days ago isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure how this is relevant? This map is just based solely on oceanic heat content. That will have little if any bearing on Sandy by the time it gets up here. KE's TCHP maps are relevant only as an upper bound of potential intensity. Since most storms don't approach that, they're not helpful. BUT, in the unique environment for Sandy, I would imagine it could easily get up to its potential as a mostly warm-core system (a-la GFS), Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The 12z GGEM looks really crazy for tri-state area. Worse than the GFS. Anyone know what the 12z UKMET does between 120-144hrs? Hits near Block Island I believe and pivots west. The window to me seems to be from Cape May to Narragansett Bay. I agree, a direct hit from a storm in the 940s could be devastating for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Mayor Bloomberg might begin evacuations if it stays the path. http://www.ny1.com/content/top_stories/171348/city-keeping-close-eye-on-hurricane-sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro into Maryland as a very strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z EURO makes landfall in Ocean city MD around 940 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 938MB at hr72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z EURO makes landfall in Ocean city MD around 940 mb. yep that would make it really just a rain storm here..is it right though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Euro is very far south now, but would still bring significant southeast gales to the entire NJ Coast. This run would obliterate Ocean City, Maryland. That place is a hurricane nightmare waiting to happen..and if the Euro is right, will have significant significant problems on their hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 the 114hr panel from the GFDL is insane. Probably wrong in terms of intensity but crazy to look at. Has a 925mb sandy sitting about 100 miles east of cape may bringing 900mb winds too all of long island between 90-96kts!!. 900mb isn't so far from the surface when the storm is 925mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z GEFS ensemble members all agree on landfall near LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 yep that would make it really just a rain storm here..is it right though? It wouldn't be "just a rain storm" here-we would likely still have major winds due to the pressure gradient with the high and expanded windfield, plus major coastal flooding issues. The consensus of the other models seem to be further north, so I would think the final outcome would be north somewhat of this position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Euro is really far south as compared to other guidance... hmmmm.. No real consensus yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 KE's TCHP maps are relevant only as an upper bound of potential intensity. Since most storms don't approach that, they're not helpful. BUT, in the unique environment for Sandy, I would imagine it could easily get up to its potential as a mostly warm-core system (a-la GFS), That map is a guide for absolute maximum strength from barotropic forces. Even if Sandy is a warm occlusion cyclone by the time it get north of 35N, it will be deriving much of its strength from baroclinic forcing. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Sandy/post-Sandy will be deeper than 990-1000mb when it gets up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Probably another 1-2 days before we can zone in where it might hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Given that the storm will be mostly paralleling the coast, it only takes a small error in track to make for a large difference in landfall between places like the DelMarVA vs. NJ vs. LI. Although the expanding windfield and rainshield will ensure that everyone gets in on some of the fun, almost no matter what. Time to get some popcorn (and maybe a generator)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is something where I am sure all available power crews in the U.S. and Canada will probably be on standby for East Coast duty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro wouldn't be a disaster in the area. Does anyone think this is right? Sometimes the Euro tends to overdo storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro wouldn't be a disaster in the area. Does anyone think this is right? Sometimes the Euro tends to overdo storms. The ECMWF being further south would mean that the winds would be coming out of the southeast, which would allow for a LOT of water to pile up along the coastlines, considering how strong the ECM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 wunderground maps have the center of the storm making landfall directly over southern ocean city md. very strong winds all the way up the coast into nj and long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Some early thoughts on Sandy… The combination of a severe block and deepening trough anchored in the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region that will likely go negative will lead to Sandy’s being captured and reeled to landfall. While the sudden left turn seen repeatedly on the ECMWF would amount to a rare event, it is not unprecedented. The sharp left turn taken by Tropical Storm Dean (1983) during a strong block, albeit not as strong as the current one, provides an example. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1983/DEAN/track.gif Hurricane #8 (1991) aka the “Perfect Storm” provides another illustration. That storm developed during a block that rivals the current one in magnitude. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/8/track.gif Right now, my thinking is that the area with the highest possibility of landfall extends from the Virginia Capes to extreme eastern Massachusetts. With Sandy’s being stronger at this stage than had been depicted on some of the guidance from a few days ago and the severe block largely precluding an exit out to sea, I suspect that the deepening trough will have an easier time capturing Sandy. The quickening timeframe for capture may well explain the southward evolution in the guidance over the past 24 hours. Baroclinic deepening from growing interaction with the trough and Sandy’s passage over the Gulf Stream will likely allow it to conserve much of its strength. Its coming ashore with Category 1 maximum sustained winds is a distinct possibility. In terms of impacts, even if Sandy comes ashore along the southern region of the Delmarva, its windfield will be expansive. Hence, gales and coastal flooding would be likely along the South Shore of Long Island, the New Jersey Coast, and coastal southern New England. For reference, one should keep in mind that Hurricane #8 (1991) impacted those areas, even as it remained some 150 to 200 miles offshore. Moreover, that storm’s central pressure fell to 972 mb. Sandy might have a central pressure 15-30 mb lower if one errs on the side of conservatism. Finally, it should be noted that following Hurricane #8 (1991), the Arctic Oscillation rebounded. Some of the ensembles point to a similar outcome following Sandy. Overall, November wound up colder than normal across most of the U.S., except for the West Coast and northern Mid-Atlantic/New England. The latest run of the CFSv2 shows the eastern third of the U.S. being colder than normal for November, except for northern New England. The major point is that the pattern following Sandy could feature a sizable area of cool anomalies for November. Should that cold materialize, it would remain to be seen whether December would feature the kind of reversal to widespread warmth that occurred in 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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