Entropy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What type of winds would Long Island and Southern New England experience from this type of storm, should it come to fruition? Would we be talking 80-100 mph sustained winds and gusts to 120+ mph? There looks like an awful lot of isobars stacked in that region between the 942 mb low and the 1032 mb high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just a terrible track for LI and the coast of SNE on the GFS verbatim...winds just off the deck are extremely impressive and even the 10m winds are sustained 50-60kts for a period on the GFS (just glancing at the national 10m wind map). The storm surge and strong winds would be a significant problem for Long Island including the sound and CT coast all the way up the coast of the Cape and SNE if this run were to verify. Also, is that fujiwara between the TC and the phasing energy? Crazy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That just about seals the capture idea , now its a matter of lattitude strike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 i feel like we went through this with irene....ill be shocked to see a low near 940 The evolution between Irene and this one is completely different. Irene was mostly a pure tropical entity as it come up the coast, Sandy will be a monster hybrid phased with the trough that you would normally only see near the arctic or well north of here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Anyone has an idea of how much rain can this give NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Are we dreaming? Honestly who here thought they would ever see this in their lifetime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The GFS soundings indicate the winds at JFK from 120-132 hours are 40 knots or so from the NNW...you've got 75-90kts at 1500-4000ft through that period...again though, this is based off a MSLP that is probably too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is just insane. I still don't buy the 940mb intensity as it strikes, but a historic event looks to be incoming with the GFS caving. Looks like we're narrowing down a landfall zone from about Narragansett Bay to Cape May. I think a lot will depend on the strength of that block-the deeper the block, the more the S/W energy will dig and create an earlier phase, and further west track. A good "consensus point" as of now seems to be over NYC or around Sandy Hook. For Long Island and lower lying areas of NYC, that would be devastating. The surge from this could top Irene's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Seriously, the comparisons to Irene need to stop. They are not even in the same ballpark in terms of intensity, synoptics and track. Irene was a decaying tropical cyclone that made landfall on the SE Jersey coastline and moved basically NNE into SNE. Sandy would most likely be taking a worst case scenario track NNW with much greater potential for coastal flooding. Thy synoptics involved are just unreal. This is not your typical northern Atlantic Hurricane. This is a hybrid system that could be strengthening up to landfall. If a lot of people make the mistake of comparing this to Irene I fear a lot of people will die. (Assuming a track somewhere between the ECMWF and the 12z GFS verifies. Ala 0z ECMWF ensemble mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We have two left exit and two right entrance regions for strengthening, and this is going to be transitioning to warm seclusion. I'm not so sure we can just assume that the models are too strong, here. The jet structure is perfect for baroclinic strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 You can watch the fujiwara effect here when looping through 500mb. The TC gets slingshot to the north and then swung back to the west while the phasing trough is south. This solution likely has very little extratropical transition as the storm is maintained by the way the phase occurs. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What would gfs mean for us in the city area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12 z Nogaps stays par for the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We've got 5 days for this still to fail or just not pan out as severe as the models want to show....hopefully it does...I want to see it happen but at the same I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What would gfs mean for us in the city area? Depending how well winds mixed down you could see 70 knots from the N-NW based on this run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We've got 5 days for this still to fail or just not pan out as severe as the models want to show....hopefully it does...I want to see it happen but at the same I don't. I thought it starts Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The irony if Sandy makes landfall at Sandy Hook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If a lot of people make the mistake of comparing this to Irene I feel a lot of people will die. --Not helpful. Can we leave statements like this to FEMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I thought it starts Sunday. Ths GFS run would have things starting very suddenly from 09z-12z Tuesday AM from 117-120 hours, prior to that we've just got steady N-NE winds of 20-25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Its the crawl and retrograding that does the most damage - 12 hrs or so of 50 - 60 mph winds ( hopefully not stornger ) from the same direction that rakes the coast line with a storm surge and drives the water into inlets and bays thats a bigger concern . That windfield will be large in circumference , so its effects are felt over a larger area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I thought it starts Sunday. Based on what Earthlight posted to demonstrate the Fujiwara, it looks like it is at it's worst Tuesday-Wednesday. http://www.meteo.psu...avnloopnew.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Its the crawl and retrograding that does the most damage - 12 hrs or so of 50 - 60 mph winds ( hopefully not stornger ) from the same direction that rakes the coast line with a storm surge and drives the water into inlets and bays thats a bigger concern . That windfield will be large in circumference , so its effects are felt over a larger area sorry for italics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ths GFS run would have things starting very suddenly from 09z-12z Tuesday AM from 117-120 hours, prior to that we've just got steady N-NE winds of 20-25 mph. Interesting. Holding onto more tropical characteristics per GFS, then? Not that we should be banking on it - it just got to the party, after all, and is probably still drunk from the pre-party party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 You can watch the fujiwara effect here when looping through 500mb. The TC gets slingshot to the north and then swung back to the west while the phasing trough is south. This solution likely has very little extratropical transition as the storm is maintained by the way the phase occurs.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html Deep warm core seclusion, perhaps? That would be quite scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJStorms Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is incredible. I'm making plans already for evacuation, so I'm not doing it last minute. (On the 1/2 mile from coastline and 10 miles N of Sandy Hook.) General public seems to think this isn't going to be much of anything. Most people don't even know it's happening. This doesn't seem like too much of a rain event. What are the chances Newark airport will be shut down on Tuesday morning? I have an in-law that's supposed to fly out and I'm praying they don't get stranded..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 In terms of interior NY, such as the Hudson Valley what would be the effects based on a track through LI or near NYC? Just wondering, since I won't be in the city but in New Paltz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 --Not helpful. Can we leave statements like this to FEMA? With all due respect, I volunteer NJ OEM. I also am a firefighter so I'll be on the front lines during this storm. I always preach to assume the worst case scenario until otherwise. That means preparing now and getting people evacuated before it's too late. I would rather over prepare and have the storm miss than have a single person die because I didn't think conditions would be as bad as forecasted. The bottom line is people need to stop assuming that just because they don't think a scenario is likely or just because it hasn't happened in there lifetime it isn't going to happen. The Euro, and as shocking as it may be, the NOAGPS have been locked in on this for days and days and the other models for the most part have been playing catch up. Assuming no major changes on the GGEM/UKIE/ECMWF 12z runs we are starting to form a general consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 EDIT - I see, you were speaking of the GFS. 4 actually. 12Z today to 12Z the 29th is 4 days The NOGAPS and NAM through 84 are both quite a bit faster than the GFS, more because they dont ever go as far east with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 John Paulson's $100m gift to Central Park appears to be... well timed. Going to be lots of tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 John Paulson's $100m gift to Central Park appears to be... well timed. Going to be lots of tree damage. I came out to LI today and the trees are significantly more along here than in the 5 boroughs and especially NYC...I'd say in SE Nassau we are over 50% and some are defoliating pretty well...it will save us somewhat I think, not as if it was 2-3 weeks form now but we'll be a nose better off than if it was summer...the tree in front of my parent's house here is about a quarter or more leaf dropped so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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