NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Except that this an a-climatological situation. hey bill, I guess its too far out to say if it is or isn't a climo situation. I mean I understand we have pretty impresive blocking modeled, but that won't matter much if the incoming trough is as flat and broad as the GFS is showing. Guess we are going to see many many different solutions until the pac energy gets more resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Some of the 18z GFS ensembles are closer to the coast than the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 18z GEFS and the Euro ENS are very close with the trough in the East at 168 hrs. The main difference between the two is that the ECMWF ENS have a more amplified ridge in the west, whereas the GFS ENS has more of a zonal flow in the west. That's probably making the difference in outcome of the system with the GEFS and the ECM ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I remember March of 1993. Models weren't very sophisticated as they are now and a triple phase was the consensus about 5 days out. There was a lot of media buzz about it then. For a sub 940mb hybrid system at that location it would be historic and would probably rival some of the strongest Atlantic hybrid storms ever recorded. The trouble is in March of 1993 there was complete model consensus. Right now there isn't any real model consensus and the outliers are producing some really strange anomalies. I've seen some fantasy solutions at long range but this takes the cake for this kind of situation. The first person to mention that storm was Nick Gregory and that was seven days beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I know it's way out there on the SREF but this is interesting http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSUS_21z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 00z tropical guidance in good agreement on a hard right turn before the cyclone reaches 32 N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Many of these are based on GFS data however, 00z tropical guidance in good agreement on a hard right turn before the cyclone reaches 32 N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Many of these are based on GFS data however, Yeah, most of them are unless we're talking about the higher resolution ones...but still worth noting that they're all in good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 NHC has Sandy reaching hurricane status by the time it reaches Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 00z tropical guidance in good agreement on a hard right turn before the cyclone reaches 32 N. similar to the gfs ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 00z tropical guidance in good agreement on a hard right turn before the cyclone reaches 32 N. Pretty weird how good of agreement there is with those spaghetti models but we can't trust anything more than the next model right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 250mb jet streak is noticeably faster this run over the Western Plains but that shortwave over the Central US is still a strung out piece of crap at 90 hours. The pattern on the GFS just doesn't look amplified enough to support these major bomb-tastic phase solutions...although comparatively this run does look "better" than the 12 or 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 00z GFS has a noticibly more amplified pattern, I'm curious to see how this affects Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 00z GFS has a noticibly more amplified pattern, I'm curious to see how this affects Sandy Sandy still looks to try and escape. Not much difference at the surface with the TC through 102 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS stalls it in the bahamas for a day or two and then heads it ENE out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 00z GFS has a noticibly more amplified pattern, I'm curious to see how this affects Sandy There is nothing more amplified about the pattern even at 84 hours compared to the 12z run. The ridge in the East Pacific is less amplified, the trough in the Central US is less energetic and less amplified. The only piece that's arguable more amplified is the ridge axis from Northern New England into Eastern Canada, and that's only appearing more amplified because the ULL in the Northwest Atlantic is farther south and west and the trough over Central Canada a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 There is nothing more amplified about the pattern even at 84 hours compared to the 12z run. The ridge in the East Pacific is less amplified, the trough in the Central US is less energetic and less amplified. The only piece that's arguable more amplified is the ridge axis from Northern New England into Eastern Canada, and that's only appearing more amplified because the ULL in the Northwest Atlantic is farther south and west and the trough over Central Canada a bit stronger. correct, the trough is broad and flat and Sandy has an easy escape route to the ENE under the big north atlantic low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On the 0z GFS, the first s/w is flatter than at 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Improvements at 500mb but still the same outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yeah that trough is not gonna get it done. The only good sign I see is that it might be trying to catch on to the last-second shortwave that the GGEM was developing ..which rips south and east from the Pac into the Central US. You can start to see it on the GFS now at 130hrs over the Plains. If that feature is stronger it could surge southeast and capture the system, provided the TC isn't thousands of miles to the northeast by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Feature i'm talking about is easily visible now at 138-144. But the TC is very far east by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The second s/w is stronger through 138hrs, than 12z and 18z GFS. But the Sandy is east of Bermuda, at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The only good sign I see is that it might be trying to catch on to the last-second shortwave that the GGEM was developing ..which rips south and east from the Pac into the Central US. You can start to see it on the GFS now at 130hrs over the Plains. If that feature is stronger it could surge southeast and capture the system, provided the TC isn't thousands of miles to the northeast by then. Yeah that is much more pronounced this run, you can definitely see it at 138. Euro has that second s/w ripping down as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sandy still looks to try and escape. Not much difference at the surface with the TC through 102 hours. Yeah as Earthlight was saying the pattern overall is not any better. Imo the trough in the central US is digging in a bit more than the last run but is nowhere near enough to pull the system towards the EC. Another ots run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The second s/w is stronger through 138hrs, than 12z and 18z GFS. But the Sandy is east of Bermuda, at that point. Pretty large shift in 1 run though. Its wasn't even there for the 18z. Pacific s/w's are once again getting the best of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If the TC had drifted farther west, similarly to the GGEM or even to a smaller extent the ECM, we would've seen a late phase on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Feature i'm talking about is easily visible now at 138-144. But the TC is very far east by that point. Yes and I believe the EC keyed in on the 2nd s/w as well. You can see how important a difference in speed (ie slower) would have on the evolution of this storm threat. Had sandy been 250 miles SW and or some combination of that 2nd s/w coming in stronger/faster than expected a capture is still very much within the realm of possibilities. There are a lot of ifs here but when you have such complex interaction between a block, 1 or 2 distinct s/w's and a tropical system you have to look at the whole picture. Still believe this has a low probability of becoming a major impact to us in the tri-state area but there is still much to iron out. Edit: And I didn't even mention what earthlight just highlighted which is that this could easily meander further west than what the GFS depicts (a la GEM/EC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You could easily argue that this run was a step towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You could easily argue that this run was a step towards the euro. agreed--and don't forget we often see this with winter storms. Sometimes what was initially thought to be a phasing s/w speeds up and de-amplifies heights ahead of a southern stream disturbance, making it much less likely (or even impossible) for it to turn up the coast. This can occur in any combination, a kicker becomes the major player, a kicker slows down or is modeled too strong and doesn't end up having much of an impact. These are all important factors storm formation, especially in winter. Here it plays a HUGE role because it is clear now that the initial trough just isn't amplified or negatively tilted enough to exert much of an effect on sandy. That 2nd s/w seems like its the dealbreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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