earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Awesome dynam. trop image from the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 in this euro situation - goodbye delaware bay? up to philly? crazy surge in those locales? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 in this euro situation - goodbye delaware bay? up to philly? crazy surge in those locales? Delaware Bay would get a bit bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 W/e happens...its crazy to see how similar the euro has been run to run...and pretty much from 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 When I step out of my IMBY shoes...what I see is that this is a high end event for the entire Northeast regardless of where "landfall" of the center occurs...also agree with Earthlight big time wind moderate to severe erosion up and down the shore *if* anything like that verified. We are entering territory where this will go down as an epic storm with very good early signal from a good deal of the modeling...or an epic medium range modeling fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The weighted mean of four models (40% Euro, 20% UK,GFS,GEM) gives a track over Long Island or NYC despite the fact that various solutions are on either side of the region ... which should maintain the highest possible alert for this potential storm until either that consensus shifts west to join the Euro (one possibility given its longer fix on the general solution) or we get to the now unlikely miss out to sea or Canadian Maritimes landfall (rated by this method at 20%, rated subjectively by me at 5%). I can't separate out my subjective forecast from this blend because this is how I forecast every day in general (mostly for other parts of the n.h.) so I tend to think of the most likely solution as this weighted blend. Sometimes I adjust the weights if I think the model performances are different in a given situation from this default value. Quite often there isn't enough difference to make different weights very important, in this case, you would see a shift as far east as Montauk to central CT by just going equal weights on all four. Combined with the current intensification and the wide open highway ahead, I can see no cause for any sort of complacency -- this is basically going to keep on trucking at cat-2 to cat-3 intensity and retain tropical characteristics well north of 35 N and the degree of hybrid or post-tropical transition may be a low fraction even at landfall but obviously very rapid thereafter. My gut says Long Island despite the Euro track. We'll see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Anybody have a Euro snowfall map? Haven't seen one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I have a feeling the euro and gfs will meet up near LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 6z nam joins the party. GFS is now alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Chan 5 still has the most likely track up into RI as a cat 1 now if that were to verify what would the effects be for the NYC metro being that a kind of track like that puts us on the weaker side of the storm correct??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I am wondering what will Bloomberg do this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Seem like it has weakened a lot more in the last few satellite images (since about 4:45) - Most of the highest cloud tops along with the clean eye have disappeared in the last 45 min. - Next few hour should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 0z euro ensemble mean looks slightly north of the op. It hits southern Jersey. Wow, the ensemble mean is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Seem like it has weakened a lot more in the last few satellite images (since about 4:45) - Most of the highest cloud tops along with the clean eye have disappeared in the last 45 min. - Next few hour should be interesting It weakened to 105 MPH and 960 pressure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It weakened to 105 MPH and 960 pressure... Most of the weakening on satellite seems to have happened after they issued the update (I would suspect wind are probably lower now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 6 Z GFS is already coming in west compared to 00z at 54 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro ens mean bring the storm right into ewr...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 5am cone shifted west. NYC and LI is now in the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS 6Z pattern looks better and is more west than 0Z so far, but will it be enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS still appears to want to escape to the east ..Meanwhile NOGAPS remains steady as she comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 it's west but doesn't phase in time for Philly and south. Through 111 it's starting its hook but it's probably going towards New England or Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS is so stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So it's pretty much all models vs. The GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So it's pretty much all models vs. The GFS? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's amazing how the euro and nogaps are so consistent. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The GFS solution is now closer to the EURO than before..so maybe it will keep adjusting to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So it's pretty much all models vs. The GFS? Essentially yes with different landfall regions.. GFS does make landfall looks like in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So it's pretty much all models vs. The GFS? All the models are making some sort of error in my opinion....the GFS is cutting too far NE obviously, the NOGAPS/Euro are likely too slow with the forward speed and too far west on the track. The GEM is close to what I think will occur but its hook is also too sharp and track too far NE. I envision something between the GGEM/GFS right now with a much smoother hook to the N-NW, not a trajectory from 120-290 like they show, probably more of a 150-330 movement ashore, so basically NNW. I think the landfall point most likely is extreme eastern LI or RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 ^^^ Do you think the euro is overdoing the strength of Sandy in our area? I can't envision a 940 low in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 One positive for our area compared to Irene - this year has been markedly drier in the weeks preceding. So much of the Irene damage (at least inland) was from the saturated ground not being able to handle and other 6 inches of rain. Not too minimize this storm in the least though. I have had my fill after Irene, looking for silver linings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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