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Potential major phasing event this weekend


forkyfork

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The NOGAPS is known for being a hurricane model and dynamic ocean storm model so Sure...it is a NAVY model after all.

It's performance for tropical system track has, on average, been abysmal for quite some time - so much so that it has been removed from a number of the consensus models.

I'm exceedingly dubious that there's some precise type of hybrid where it magically stops being a joke.

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It's performance for tropical system track has, on average, been abysmal for quite some time - so much so that it has been removed from a number of the consensus models.

I'm exceedingly dubious that there's some precise type of hybrid where it magically stops being a joke.

My memory is it has hit some storms big and blown others badly. Isabel in 03 was its best hit, it was the first to catch on to the storm hitting VA/NC when every other model was hitting Long Island.

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NHC just put out an update now 110mph!

000

WTNT63 KNHC 250442

TCUAT3

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012

1230 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS SOUTHWEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.6N 76.1W

ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED...AND MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH...175 KM/H. THIS

MAKE SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...

AND SANDY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL

ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Wow, can't recall the last time they did an "update" 90 minutes after a full package was put out - and the even have it under its own "update" link. Explosive strengthening - Cuba is in for it tonight.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/250301.shtml

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My memory is it has hit some storms big and blown others badly. Isabel in 03 was its best hit, it was the first to catch on to the storm hitting VA/NC when every other model was hitting Long Island.

Almost nothing was hitting Long Island other than the CMC for Isabel (just looked at archived tracks on some old software - Stormtrakker - I have). Model tracks for Isabel were remarkably accurate in the long range, and NOGAPS was hardly alone in a North Carolina track.

NHC seasonal verifications consistently show very poor NOGAPS performance, which is a much better set of data than remembered anecdotes.

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Well, whatever's going to happen, we're going to wake up to a major hurricane on our hands. If Cuba doesn't do too much damage to Sandy, we could see a cat 4 by the time this thing is all said and done. And then the media hype is going to hit new records...

Was about to say the same thing. This could easily regain major status post-Cuba, which is when hype mode would really kick into high gear. This storm seems like it'll be much larger/potentially more damaging than Irene (I mean, Irene was nothing in the city itself), and news from DC-BOS will be freaking out.

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