BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://www.ssd.noaa....rbtop-long.html There is no way this is a cat 1. Read your updated products..almost Cat 3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 937mb looks to be headed for block island/montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is the last frame you can get on these graphics..but here's the 120 hr Canadian. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The NOGAPS is known for being a hurricane model and dynamic ocean storm model so Sure...it is a NAVY model after all. It's performance for tropical system track has, on average, been abysmal for quite some time - so much so that it has been removed from a number of the consensus models. I'm exceedingly dubious that there's some precise type of hybrid where it magically stops being a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 937mb looks to be headed for block island/montauk. Where are you getting the GGEM from this early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well, the 00Z UKMET caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Where are you getting the GGEM from this early? Updates here very fast, but it's only the simulated radar and surface pressure. You can view old runs too..pretty useful page. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Where are you getting the GGEM from this early? I already have it to 96... and thats the CMC precip map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Where are you getting the GGEM from this early? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy's now almost Cat 3. 0z UK is over NY State at 144hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's performance for tropical system track has, on average, been abysmal for quite some time - so much so that it has been removed from a number of the consensus models. I'm exceedingly dubious that there's some precise type of hybrid where it magically stops being a joke. My memory is it has hit some storms big and blown others badly. Isabel in 03 was its best hit, it was the first to catch on to the storm hitting VA/NC when every other model was hitting Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GGEM is a weenie solution. 12z was somewhat similar. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Weathergun or whomever, can I get the link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well, the 00Z UKMET caved. To which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 To which model? EURO/NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GGEM is a weenie solution. 12z was somewhat similar. lol It swings the center pretty far southeast at first, too. Must be a late second capture that goes wild. Storm is headed for Montauk on a due west heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Weathergun or whomever, can I get the link to that? http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=000&map=na〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Weathergun or whomever, can I get the link to that? http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=042&map=na&stn2=PNM&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=042&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://meteocentre.c...fixhh=1〈=en Appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 EURO/NOGAPS Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NHC just put out an update now 110mph! 000 WTNT63 KNHC 250442 TCUAT3 HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1230 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 ...SANDY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS SOUTHWEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 76.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH...175 KM/H. THIS MAKE SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND SANDY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Wow, can't recall the last time they did an "update" 90 minutes after a full package was put out - and the even have it under its own "update" link. Explosive strengthening - Cuba is in for it tonight. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/250301.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks In actuality... tonights 00z UKIE looks similar to 00z GGEM http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=120&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What exactly did the 12 Ukmet show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My memory is it has hit some storms big and blown others badly. Isabel in 03 was its best hit, it was the first to catch on to the storm hitting VA/NC when every other model was hitting Long Island. Almost nothing was hitting Long Island other than the CMC for Isabel (just looked at archived tracks on some old software - Stormtrakker - I have). Model tracks for Isabel were remarkably accurate in the long range, and NOGAPS was hardly alone in a North Carolina track. NHC seasonal verifications consistently show very poor NOGAPS performance, which is a much better set of data than remembered anecdotes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Santiago de Cuba is in a very bad position right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 0z GEFS Different than op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well, whatever's going to happen, we're going to wake up to a major hurricane on our hands. If Cuba doesn't do too much damage to Sandy, we could see a cat 4 by the time this thing is all said and done. And then the media hype is going to hit new records... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Santiago de Cuba is in a very bad position right now. I feel very bad for the people there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well, whatever's going to happen, we're going to wake up to a major hurricane on our hands. If Cuba doesn't do too much damage to Sandy, we could see a cat 4 by the time this thing is all said and done. And then the media hype is going to hit new records... Was about to say the same thing. This could easily regain major status post-Cuba, which is when hype mode would really kick into high gear. This storm seems like it'll be much larger/potentially more damaging than Irene (I mean, Irene was nothing in the city itself), and news from DC-BOS will be freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 0z GEM @ 120hrs.. Straight Porn! Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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