CooL Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z Gfdl still in the euro camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Here's a good post from Phil in the main forum about how the modeled strength of Sandy could affect her track. Now whether or not it is being modeled correctly is a slightly different issue (and is also addressed in the post), but yes, her strength could affect her track. http://www.americanw...n/#entry1809655 Thanks, very interesting read. It seems the stronger Sandy is, the more likely it gets pulled back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z Gfdl still in the euro camp 18z GFDL is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GFDL is insane I forget where it's posted, but one of the mets brought up the fact that tropical models often over-deepen transitioning tropical cyclones, especially those which interact with anomalously deep troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I forget where it's posted, but one of the mets brought up the fact that tropical models often over-deepen transitioning tropical cyclones, especially those which interact with anomalously deep troughs. Not nearly as interested in the strength as i am in the track/phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy already down to 956 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not nearly as interested in the strength as i am in the track/phase. That has to do with it. It's already been established that on the models, strength = further west track. if the storm stays weak, it will have less propensity towards being sucked inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Down to 954.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Lee Goldberg saying OTS is highly unlikely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GFDL is insane There is absolutely no way Sandy is 925 mb up here (not far from Cat 5 in the tropics) when even 1938 was 941mb? on Long Island. Way overdone, even if the track itself may still be in play. Remember, still 5 days out and tons of contingencies in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 There is absolutely no way Sandy is 925 mb up here (not far from Cat 5 in the tropics) when even 1938 was 941mb? on Long Island. Way overdone, even if the track itself may still be in play. Remember, still 5 days out and tons of contingencies in the cards. ECM was 934 on the 12 Z run today so that is not to much of a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 ECM was 934 on the 12 Z run today so that is not to much of a difference and that is also not going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Through 72 hours the GFS is similar to the 12z run with the placement of the TC, maybe a hair south. The Euro is much farther southwest with the system at the same valid time from it's 12z run -- but interestingly the GFS seems more aggressive with Central US height falls. That being said, the major difference between the two is the ridge axis between the TC and the ULL over the Atlantic. The GFS and Euro are still worlds apart with this -- and that's what is allowing the GFS to slip the storm east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The GFS is running right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 and that is also not going to happen Well we are already at 954 which according to the newest GFS at 6 Z we should be at 989 so I would say that this is just a touch stronger then modeled ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS still refuses to give up on the N Atlantic ULL interacting with Sandy. The Euro is having none of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So long as the ridge doesn't build between the N Atlantic ULL and Sandy like the Euro indicates, the GFS will continue to let Sandy slip east/northeast through that weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Through 72 hours the GFS is similar to the 12z run with the placement of the TC, maybe a hair south. The Euro is much farther southwest with the system at the same valid time from it's 12z run -- but interestingly the GFS seems more aggressive with Central US height falls. That being said, the major difference between the two is the ridge axis between the TC and the ULL over the Atlantic. The GFS and Euro are still worlds apart with this -- and that's what is allowing the GFS to slip the storm east. I wish we could have increased North Atlantic sounding data as opposed to increased CONUS sounding data ingested into the models. The Euro shows phases and hits regardless of what the CONUS pattern looks like, pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I wish we could have increased North Atlantic sounding data as opposed to increased CONUS sounding data ingested into the models. The Euro shows phases and hits regardless of what the CONUS pattern looks like, pretty much. This to me (obviously not a specialist) seems like a situation that could have wild/crazy changes for a while yet, depending on various weaknesses/shortwaves/intracacies on where what catches what, interacts with what, etc. The latent heat equations are far beyond me, but what worries me is that it could take maybe 2-3 more days before it finally shakes out whether this is a major hit or a glancing blow and by then many in flood zones won't have much time to take precautions. A thought I have is, if 1938 and Hazel were so strong, what kind of insane mid-latitude vortex must have caught those up since the thought now is that a stronger Sandy would resist being phased/captured? What a tough forecast here. But the repeated and consistent Euro hits give me pause that this is still a strong possibility at least. The stronger the block NE of us, the more chance this is a bigger impact, since it gives less leeway to an escape I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 At hr. 132 looks like Sandy begins to turn back towards North America possibly towards Nova Scotia, but I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 00z NOGAPS at 96 hrs... Still disagrees with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Down to 951.6. Sandy is exploding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Jeez, the Nogaps isn't giving up either. Didn't someone mention earlier that the NOGAPS may do better than usual with this particular type of situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Didn't someone mention earlier that the NOGAPS may do better than usual with this particular type of situation? I remember it nailing Hurricane Floyd's track 6 days out, however I don't remember what it showed as we got closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Didn't someone mention earlier that the NOGAPS may do better than usual with this particular type of situation? The NOGAPS is known for being a hurricane model and dynamic ocean storm model so Sure...it is a NAVY model after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Through around 90 hours (i'm using a simulated radar here so bear with me) the GGEM is trying, but not succeeding at bringing the storm back to the coast. There is an obvious east motion...storms at 951mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-rbtop-long.html There is no way this is a cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yup GGEM loses it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NHC just put out an update now 110mph! 000 WTNT63 KNHC 250442 TCUAT3 HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1230 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 ...SANDY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS SOUTHWEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 76.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH...175 KM/H. THIS MAKE SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND SANDY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Really wrapping up now at 108 on the GGEM....keep in mind the NJ coast and parts of NYC have been getting hammered with rain for several hours prior to the storm being even remotely close (per this run). Down to 944mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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