Guest Imperator Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yes, I was called out by you and perhaps 2-3 others, in your case, you seem to have joined today, in the other cases, I wasn't sure if the criticism was based on wrong interpretation of the models or perhaps they meant it was too early to be saying 100 mph wind potential, but if you look around the forum you will find plenty of other people very concerned about the potential of this storm and I am not going against any known meteorological principles here, in fact I rather resent your tone just because I don't post a red tag as a research climatologist does not mean that much. I'm not too sure what your agenda is, TBH, but my agenda is to discuss the reality of this storm's potential and there is no point in being coy about it just in case the models bust, that's their shortcoming if so, not mine. I can only work with the tools at hand, and these models are trending towards a very anomalous solution. Of course I see a range of possible outcomes, but we should be discussing that range not pretending that nothing is going to happen. This storm could potentially be a high impact event and I think lots of people on this forum know that, so why single me out? Roger: There is nothing wrong in discussing hypotheticals, but your seeming embrace of this morning's ECMWF with what other's said was a poor interpretation (Cat 4 winds, etc) coupled with calls for people to plan an evacuation on Long Island was going overboard. Ive noticed people on this forum use the words "catastrophic" "destructive" and "historic" rather liberally. As a Long Island native, Ive seen bad storms, nor'easters, blizzards, hurricane and remnants of hurricanes. A number of those were sub 970mb lows people seem to be marketing as "historic" this time around. Doesn't anyone remember the sub 950 bomb from March, 2005? What about the 960mb Boxing Day Storm? I just think the hype here is a little bit overboard given the North east's storm history. Becuase you have a sub 970mb storm doesnt mean its a Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GFS is way OTS In line with the NHC 5PM cone track. It is too early to be certain on track and weather effects..remember the storm is not just a point.. with the potential we need to keep our eyes on this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ABC network putting hype machine on with lead story on World News. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 06z/18z GFS shouldn't be used because they don't have any reliable upper air data so when you see the storm going OTS on the model, don't be surprised. It's has nothing to do with the model being unreliable. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Dumd question if it hits new England what would the impacts if Any be across the NYC metro??? Nick Gregory has a new England hit as the most likely track right now so would we get mainly rain from that type of track or damaging winds also I know we would be on the left front quad of the storm witch I know in a true trop storm is the weaker side so that's why im curios as too what NYC could expect?,? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 DGEX come ashore on central Long Island and then backs it to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 No. Those comments seem to come up every winter, but earlier this year due to the storm. 18z/06z runs of the GFS do input new data and they should not be thrown out. The fact that the GFS misses the phase tells me that this option is very much a possibility, and it's too early to make any definitive statements regarding Sandy's eventual track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Those comments seem to come up every winter, but earlier this year due to the storm. 18z/06z runs of the GFS do input new data and they should not be thrown out. The fact that the GFS misses the phase tells me that this option is very much a possibility, and it's too early to make any definitive statements regarding Sandy's eventual track. It would be the biggest coup for the GFS since the Boxing Day Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 does anyone know whether the new upper air data will be available for the 0z or 12z runs for the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 does anyone know whether the new upper air data will be available for the 0z or 12z runs for the models? They will be available for ALL model runs (NAM/GFS) 06z/12z/18z/00z I think starting tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It would be the biggest coup for the GFS since the Boxing Day Blizzard. Yeah that was one of the most exciting days of our weather lives when the GFS brought the BECS back into the picture. Will be interesting to see if it caves here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Those comments seem to come up every winter, but earlier this year due to the storm. 18z/06z runs of the GFS do input new data and they should not be thrown out. The fact that the GFS misses the phase tells me that this option is very much a possibility, and it's too early to make any definitive statements regarding Sandy's eventual track. Yeah. Do people really think NCEP would spend the money/computing power to run models that they knew were worthless? The Southeast launched special 18Z radiosondes today that were presumably ingested into the 18Z model suite. .. so it is something to note. Nationwide special 06Z/18Z launches begin tomorrow at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Model trends are not going to be linear when we are 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Also realized we have a retrograding block to ime as well. If it gets further south the storm will make the left turn earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 most of the 12z gfs ensemble members showed a nj/li/sne landfall, so i don't really agree with what the operational model is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GEFS mean still manages to pull this back into southern New England coast at 144 hrs, then it sits over New York State at 156 hrs., so it is still doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The GEFS are pretty far east compared to the 12z run -- worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Is it true the 18z and 6z aren't as accurate as 0z and 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Is it true the 18z and 6z aren't as accurate as 0z and 12z runs? yes, unless they show a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 yes, unless they show a big hit. I'm being completely honest with the question I already doubt the Euro solution i'm just curious if thats a true statement or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's been debunked many times. Why do you doubt the Euro solution? It has been fairly consistent over its last 5 runs or so I'm being completely honest with the question I already doubt the Euro solution i'm just curious if thats a true statement or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seawind Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just wondering if the strength of Sandy has any influence on it's track or is the direction solely dictated by other factors (blocking, pacific conditions, ect.) and it is mainly along for the ride... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's been debunked many times. Why do you doubt the Euro solution? It has been fairly consistent over its last 5 runs or so It certain ways so has the GFS so you can't count that out and do you really anticipate a 930mb hybrid slamming somewhere between Jersey and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Would you have thought we were tracking an October snowstorm a year ago at this time? It certain ways so has the GFS so you can't count that out and do you really anticipate a 930mb hybrid slamming somewhere between Jersey and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What role would the strength play in Sandy with regards to track, this might have been mentioned before but would it make a big difference. What if Sandy is considerably stronger once in the Bahamas than models currently depict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just wondering if the strength of Sandy has any influence on it's track or is the direction solely dictated by other factors (blocking, pacific conditions, ect.) and it is mainly along for the ride... Thanks! What role would the strength play in Sandy with regards to track, this might have been mentioned before but would it make a big difference. What if Sandy is considerably stronger once in the Bahamas than models currently depict. Here's a good post from Phil in the main forum about how the modeled strength of Sandy could affect her track. Now whether or not it is being modeled correctly is a slightly different issue (and is also addressed in the post), but yes, her strength could affect her track. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37397-hurricane-sandy-model-and-medium-range-discussion/#entry1809655 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is it true the 18z and 6z aren't as accurate as 0z and 12z runs? No. This seems to be the lie that never dies, among meteorologists and hobbyists alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Any and every solution is still on the table with a chaotic scenario like this. It's hard for me to imagine so many runs of the Euro (and ensembles) failing like this, but anything's possible. The block, I think, will provide enough resistance to an out to sea track but a weakness could develop to the east and allow for an escape. If the block weakens on future runs, it allows an escape as well. No block=no storm, or maybe a .001% chance of a storm. Without it the Midwest trough can't dig south and capture Sandy, and Sandy has a clean route east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The GEFS are pretty far east compared to the 12z run -- worth noting. not surprising since the op pretty much went unphased and ots. Won't have any trust in the gfs until it shows some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The block is way too strong for it to just escape, a secondary storm would likely form and retrograde like the gfs shows if there is no phase, and sandy would probably swing back as well except much further north and much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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