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Potential major phasing event this weekend


forkyfork

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Yes, I was called out by you and perhaps 2-3 others, in your case, you seem to have joined today, in the other cases, I wasn't sure if the criticism was based on wrong interpretation of the models or perhaps they meant it was too early to be saying 100 mph wind potential, but if you look around the forum you will find plenty of other people very concerned about the potential of this storm and I am not going against any known meteorological principles here, in fact I rather resent your tone just because I don't post a red tag as a research climatologist does not mean that much.

I'm not too sure what your agenda is, TBH, but my agenda is to discuss the reality of this storm's potential and there is no point in being coy about it just in case the models bust, that's their shortcoming if so, not mine.

I can only work with the tools at hand, and these models are trending towards a very anomalous solution. Of course I see a range of possible outcomes, but we should be discussing that range not pretending that nothing is going to happen. This storm could potentially be a high impact event and I think lots of people on this forum know that, so why single me out?

Roger: There is nothing wrong in discussing hypotheticals, but your seeming embrace of this morning's ECMWF with what other's said was a poor interpretation (Cat 4 winds, etc) coupled with calls for people to plan an evacuation on Long Island was going overboard. Ive noticed people on this forum use the words "catastrophic" "destructive" and "historic" rather liberally. As a Long Island native, Ive seen bad storms, nor'easters, blizzards, hurricane and remnants of hurricanes. A number of those were sub 970mb lows people seem to be marketing as "historic" this time around. Doesn't anyone remember the sub 950 bomb from March, 2005? What about the 960mb Boxing Day Storm? I just think the hype here is a little bit overboard given the North east's storm history. Becuase you have a sub 970mb storm doesnt mean its a Hurricane.

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Dumd question if it hits new England what would the impacts if Any be across the NYC metro??? Nick Gregory has a new England hit as the most likely track right now so would we get mainly rain from that type of track or damaging winds also I know we would be on the left front quad of the storm witch I know in a true trop storm is the weaker side so that's why im curios as too what NYC could expect?,?

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No.

Those comments seem to come up every winter, but earlier this year due to the storm.

18z/06z runs of the GFS do input new data and they should not be thrown out. The fact that the GFS misses the phase tells me that this option is very much a possibility, and it's too early to make any definitive statements regarding Sandy's eventual track.

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Those comments seem to come up every winter, but earlier this year due to the storm.

18z/06z runs of the GFS do input new data and they should not be thrown out. The fact that the GFS misses the phase tells me that this option is very much a possibility, and it's too early to make any definitive statements regarding Sandy's eventual track.

It would be the biggest coup for the GFS since the Boxing Day Blizzard.

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Those comments seem to come up every winter, but earlier this year due to the storm.

18z/06z runs of the GFS do input new data and they should not be thrown out. The fact that the GFS misses the phase tells me that this option is very much a possibility, and it's too early to make any definitive statements regarding Sandy's eventual track.

Yeah. Do people really think NCEP would spend the money/computing power to run models that they knew were worthless? :lol:

The Southeast launched special 18Z radiosondes today that were presumably ingested into the 18Z model suite. .. so it is something to note. Nationwide special 06Z/18Z launches begin tomorrow at 18Z.

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It's been debunked many times. Why do you doubt the Euro solution? It has been fairly consistent over its last 5 runs or so

It certain ways so has the GFS so you can't count that out and do you really anticipate a 930mb hybrid slamming somewhere between Jersey and LI.

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Just wondering if the strength of Sandy has any influence on it's track or is the direction solely dictated by other factors (blocking, pacific conditions, ect.) and it is mainly along for the ride...

Thanks!

What role would the strength play in Sandy with regards to track, this might have been mentioned before but would it make a big difference. What if Sandy is considerably stronger once in the Bahamas than models currently depict.

Here's a good post from Phil in the main forum about how the modeled strength of Sandy could affect her track. Now whether or not it is being modeled correctly is a slightly different issue (and is also addressed in the post), but yes, her strength could affect her track.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37397-hurricane-sandy-model-and-medium-range-discussion/#entry1809655

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Any and every solution is still on the table with a chaotic scenario like this. It's hard for me to imagine so many runs of the Euro (and ensembles) failing like this, but anything's possible. The block, I think, will provide enough resistance to an out to sea track but a weakness could develop to the east and allow for an escape. If the block weakens on future runs, it allows an escape as well. No block=no storm, or maybe a .001% chance of a storm. Without it the Midwest trough can't dig south and capture Sandy, and Sandy has a clean route east.

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