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Potential major phasing event this weekend


forkyfork

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Not sure what think yet about this one.

To be honest, I'm not even taking the potential impact of this system seriously yet.

The only reason I think it will happen somewhere is the pattern in the NATL makes it darn hard for anything to escape. I feel I always am the Sam Champion of snowstorms in this thread when it comes to most weather events playing them down as much as possible. This is one that is still hard to figure out due to the whole tropica/extratropical transition possible. I am still leaning towards this being a bad coastal flooding/beach erosion event but not a very severe wind damage event yet....obviously if Sandy is still a cane off SC or NC and starts blasting north or is captured earlier then I will be much more worried. I'm still 48 hours away from having any real confidence on this.

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Pretty sure we would be evacuated again under such a scenario. The flood threat for our immediate area has to be quite worrisome.

There will definitely be concerns about people ignoring the orders because Irene only marginally flooded alot of areas evacuated. I know many who did not evacuate in Bellmore and Wantagh for Irene and ultimately only got about a foot of water on their streets...you can be sure this time they won't be leaving nor will alot of others.

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There will definitely be concerns about people ignoring the orders because Irene only marginally flooded alot of areas evacuated. I know many who did not evacuate in Bellmore and Wantagh for Irene and ultimately only got about a foot of water on their streets...you can be sure this time they won't be leaving nor will alot of others.

I wonder what Bloomberg will do. A lot of people took Irene as a joke.

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There will definitely be concerns about people ignoring the orders because Irene only marginally flooded alot of areas evacuated. I know many who did not evacuate in Bellmore and Wantagh for Irene and ultimately only got about a foot of water on their streets...you can be sure this time they won't be leaving nor will alot of others.

The water building up over multiple tide cycles and the full moon definitely increase the danger here. Water definitely builds up like into a funnel in this region off an easterly wind. At least Irene came in and then exited quick. The blockiness might slow this all down more.

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Here is a map to put things in historical perspective. The apparent coriolis force deflecting most storms to the northeast..

Graphic from NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks tool shows all hurricanes passing within 65 nautical miles of Cape Hatteras, N.C., since 1900.

(Credit: NOAA)

post-1009-0-15931800-1351114452_thumb.jp

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I wonder what Bloomberg will do. A lot of people took Irene as a joke.

I blame the NHC forecasts for that, they should never had had the storm reaching here as 85 mph or more considering it was slow up the coast and was going to be hugging land most of the way, had they had it as a 60-70 mph system I think things would have been handled differently here.

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If Sandy comes in anywhere near 950 MB the flooding with Irene will look paltry in comparison. I have a friend from Long Beach and that town went completely underwater during Irene (I mean, the streets were covered in feet of water). I would guess the impact would be greater there as winds would also be higher, but the main difference would be substantial flooding across almost all of southern BK and Queens.

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Roger,

No Offense, but I think you were called out this morning for miscontruing and overhyping model outputs. Perhaps a pro- met can help you out in decipering the many complexities of model outputs. I am by no means a professional and I am sure your intentions and efforts are well meaning, but I think you should consult people with more extensive capabilites on understanding the siutation before putting out unlikely and inaccurate doomsday model intepretations.

Yes, I was called out by you and perhaps 2-3 others, in your case, you seem to have joined today, in the other cases, I wasn't sure if the criticism was based on wrong interpretation of the models or perhaps they meant it was too early to be saying 100 mph wind potential, but if you look around the forum you will find plenty of other people very concerned about the potential of this storm and I am not going against any known meteorological principles here, in fact I rather resent your tone just because I don't post a red tag as a research climatologist does not mean that much.

I'm not too sure what your agenda is, TBH, but my agenda is to discuss the reality of this storm's potential and there is no point in being coy about it just in case the models bust, that's their shortcoming if so, not mine.

I can only work with the tools at hand, and these models are trending towards a very anomalous solution. Of course I see a range of possible outcomes, but we should be discussing that range not pretending that nothing is going to happen. This storm could potentially be a high impact event and I think lots of people on this forum know that, so why single me out?

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Pretty sure we would be evacuated again under such a scenario. The flood threat for our immediate area has to be quite worrisome.

As soon as the Euro OP converges with its ensemble mean over the next several days, we'll know the exact track

and how close the center will be to us. I'll really be interested in seeing what the storm surge guidance starts to

look like at that point.

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