Zynlamar Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z JMA is on board lol we broke out the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 lol we broke out the JMA It is ranked higher than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpickett Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looks like a pair of leering binoculars. Tony or his remains on the right is helping to slow/delay eastward movement. Looks like the frog in Courageous Cat and Minute Mouse, "Hey Mugsie" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EC ensembkes into ern LI at rh 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z Models plots. Many now show a turn NW around 96hr>. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EC ensembkes into ern LI at rh 150. How strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 How strong? Tough to tell, but strong for a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Tough to tell, but strong for a mean. Thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not sure what think yet about this one. To be honest, I'm not even taking the potential impact of this system seriously yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 5pm cone from NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The difference between the Euro and ensemble mean may represent the best first guess of a landfall somewhere between the Delmarva and Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not sure what think yet about this one. To be honest, I'm not even taking the potential impact of this system seriously yet. The only reason I think it will happen somewhere is the pattern in the NATL makes it darn hard for anything to escape. I feel I always am the Sam Champion of snowstorms in this thread when it comes to most weather events playing them down as much as possible. This is one that is still hard to figure out due to the whole tropica/extratropical transition possible. I am still leaning towards this being a bad coastal flooding/beach erosion event but not a very severe wind damage event yet....obviously if Sandy is still a cane off SC or NC and starts blasting north or is captured earlier then I will be much more worried. I'm still 48 hours away from having any real confidence on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The difference between the Euro and ensemble mean may represent the best first guess of a landfall somewhere between the Delmarva and Eastern LI. Pretty sure we would be evacuated again under such a scenario. The flood threat for our immediate area has to be quite worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Pretty sure we would be evacuated again under such a scenario. The flood threat for our immediate area has to be quite worrisome. There will definitely be concerns about people ignoring the orders because Irene only marginally flooded alot of areas evacuated. I know many who did not evacuate in Bellmore and Wantagh for Irene and ultimately only got about a foot of water on their streets...you can be sure this time they won't be leaving nor will alot of others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 There will definitely be concerns about people ignoring the orders because Irene only marginally flooded alot of areas evacuated. I know many who did not evacuate in Bellmore and Wantagh for Irene and ultimately only got about a foot of water on their streets...you can be sure this time they won't be leaving nor will alot of others. I wonder what Bloomberg will do. A lot of people took Irene as a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 There will definitely be concerns about people ignoring the orders because Irene only marginally flooded alot of areas evacuated. I know many who did not evacuate in Bellmore and Wantagh for Irene and ultimately only got about a foot of water on their streets...you can be sure this time they won't be leaving nor will alot of others. The water building up over multiple tide cycles and the full moon definitely increase the danger here. Water definitely builds up like into a funnel in this region off an easterly wind. At least Irene came in and then exited quick. The blockiness might slow this all down more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here is a map to put things in historical perspective. The apparent coriolis force deflecting most storms to the northeast.. Graphic from NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks tool shows all hurricanes passing within 65 nautical miles of Cape Hatteras, N.C., since 1900. (Credit: NOAA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I wonder what Bloomberg will do. A lot of people took Irene as a joke. I blame the NHC forecasts for that, they should never had had the storm reaching here as 85 mph or more considering it was slow up the coast and was going to be hugging land most of the way, had they had it as a 60-70 mph system I think things would have been handled differently here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If Sandy comes in anywhere near 950 MB the flooding with Irene will look paltry in comparison. I have a friend from Long Beach and that town went completely underwater during Irene (I mean, the streets were covered in feet of water). I would guess the impact would be greater there as winds would also be higher, but the main difference would be substantial flooding across almost all of southern BK and Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Roger, No Offense, but I think you were called out this morning for miscontruing and overhyping model outputs. Perhaps a pro- met can help you out in decipering the many complexities of model outputs. I am by no means a professional and I am sure your intentions and efforts are well meaning, but I think you should consult people with more extensive capabilites on understanding the siutation before putting out unlikely and inaccurate doomsday model intepretations. Yes, I was called out by you and perhaps 2-3 others, in your case, you seem to have joined today, in the other cases, I wasn't sure if the criticism was based on wrong interpretation of the models or perhaps they meant it was too early to be saying 100 mph wind potential, but if you look around the forum you will find plenty of other people very concerned about the potential of this storm and I am not going against any known meteorological principles here, in fact I rather resent your tone just because I don't post a red tag as a research climatologist does not mean that much. I'm not too sure what your agenda is, TBH, but my agenda is to discuss the reality of this storm's potential and there is no point in being coy about it just in case the models bust, that's their shortcoming if so, not mine. I can only work with the tools at hand, and these models are trending towards a very anomalous solution. Of course I see a range of possible outcomes, but we should be discussing that range not pretending that nothing is going to happen. This storm could potentially be a high impact event and I think lots of people on this forum know that, so why single me out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Pretty sure we would be evacuated again under such a scenario. The flood threat for our immediate area has to be quite worrisome. As soon as the Euro OP converges with its ensemble mean over the next several days, we'll know the exact track and how close the center will be to us. I'll really be interested in seeing what the storm surge guidance starts to look like at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GFS is way OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GFS is way OTS This is where the old JB theory about 06/18z runs would let the air out of the balloon if its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GFS completely misses the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GFS is way OTS 18z GFS or 12z EURO, hmmmmm what do I trust more...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GFS or 12z EURO, hmmmmm what do I trust more...lol lol..JMA has better scores that GFS..god you would think the greatest country could deliver a decent computer model..it will be proved wrong again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z Nogaps slams into Southern NJ. So consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Actually, the GFS has much better scores recently. I still think you are correct though, the JMA is most likely doing a much better job with Sandy. lol..JMA has better scores that GFS..god you would think the greatest country could deliver a decent computer model..it will be proved wrong again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 06z/18z GFS shouldn't be used because they don't have any reliable upper air data so when you see the storm going OTS on the model, don't be surprised. It's has nothing to do with the model being unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yep, Atlantic City hit. 18z Nogaps slams into Southern NJ. So consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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