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Potential major phasing event this weekend


forkyfork

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A sub 935 low slamming into anywhere from the delmarva thru NYC is potentially devastating especially because

this will a long duration storm . I will argue that 70 mph winds for 20 hrs is far worse than 90 mph for a few . i am more worried than psyched .The Euro has not waivered , and unfortuantley I think the other

models will trend towards it .

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Wow. Demolition derby for LI, NJ, DE. Another worst-case scenario track. This is really starting to get concerning now.

Glad I don't live on Long Beach :arrowhead: EC sticking to its guns with a Delmarva, S NJ into E PA track, no shift East at all, just a shift S&W now. Have to see if the other models on 00Z run now shift further S & W with track. Definitely looks like we have got a nice major gale storm coming for the tri-state region for early next week.

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Glad I don't live on Long Beach :arrowhead: EC sticking to its guns with a Delmarva, S NJ into E PA track, no shift East at all, just a shift S&W now. Have to see if the other models on 00Z run now shift further S & W with track. Definitely looks like we have got a nice major gale storm coming for the tri-state region for early next week.

I'm almost certain they would need to evacuate us again with a track like that. You combine a storm in the 940s mb with ferocious onshore winds and the full moon for likely many hours, you would likely create an even worse scene here than Irene, which came and left fast. Hard for me to even imagine how high a surge can get for NYC/western LI with a track right through NJ. Really hoping for a more GGEM-like outcome, although just about every model run creates a disasterous outcome for some/many. :(

We're lucky that we still have a few days to change this. I'm sure the media tonight/tomorrow will start honking like crazy if this persists. Again, the Euro's rock solid consistency here is quite telling.

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Centered over E PA @ 144. Everyone gets a piece of this!

What would 70-80 kt 850mb winds translate to at the surface?

Have to remember that this is extra-tropical now and as such there will likely be a lower lapse rates near the surface. This will keep those kinds of sustained winds at that level.. but still 50-60 mph gusts would be common.

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I'm almost certain they would need to evacuate us again with a track like that. You combine a storm in the 940s mb with ferocious onshore winds and the full moon for likely many hours, you would likely create an even worse scene here than Irene, which came and left fast. Hard for me to even imagine how high a surge can get for NYC/western LI with a track right through NJ. Really hoping for a more GGEM-like outcome, although just about every model run creates a disasterous outcome for some/many. :(

We're lucky that we still have a few days to change this. I'm sure the media tonight/tomorrow will start honking like crazy if this persists. Again, the Euro's rock solid consistency here is quite telling.

I would assume verbatim this would be similar to a Cat 1 or Cat 2 surge.

Refer to http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/storm_surge_maps.html

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It's almost unbelievable how locked in the Euro has been for run after run now. The GFS has waivered as far east as Africa and now as far west and New England. We now have nearly full agreement between the ECMWF op and the GEFS ensemble mean. Barring an unforesean shift in the ECMWF ensembles it's hard to bet against a direct hit in my opinion at this time.

Even though I don't have a met degree, a lof of co workers consider me to be the in house "weather guy" and I have done my best to not get over excited and continue to express that there is a chance of a very significant and devastating storm.

I would like to see the 10/25 12z runs before pulling the trigger, but I'm going out tonight to gas up the generator and purchase some extra cases of water and batteries. I don't know about anyone else, but I would rather go out to the stores before the mad rush over the weekend when the main stream media hype begins. The way I look at it, it's not like the batteries and water will go to waste.

In all reality, winds or not, we are still looking at a major QPF event. With recent rains, the area rivers are running at normal to slightly above normal. Those that live in flood prone areas should begin preparing now incase an evacuation order is issued. Better to be ahead of the game rather than scrambling at the last minute. Keep in mind that the winds may become strong enough that the areas suspension bridges may need to be shut down, thus blocking and isolating a lot of the city and surrounding areas.

So as said, no need to push the panic button just yet, but it is time to get the word out to the public so that they can begin preparing just incase this monster becomes a reality. It will already be met with some resistance as a lot of people will probably make the mistake of comparing this to Irene.

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SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF

HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED

BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL

DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE

SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR

REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

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Sobering thought -- a 60-20-20 blend of Euro, GEM and GFS tracks a 940 mb low directly across NYC.

A 40-30-30 blend tracks a 942 mb low across central Long Island into w CT.

Roger,

No Offense, but I think you were called out this morning for miscontruing and overhyping model outputs. Perhaps a pro- met can help you out in decipering the many complexities of model outputs. I am by no means a professional and I am sure your intentions and efforts are well meaning, but I think you should consult people with more extensive capabilites on understanding the siutation before putting out unlikely and inaccurate doomsday model intepretations.

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Roger,

No Offense, but I think you were called out this morning for miscontruing and overhyping model outputs. Perhaps a pro- met can help you out in decipering the many complexities of model outputs. I am by no means a professional and I am sure your intentions and efforts are well meaning, but I think you should consult people with more extensive capabilites on understanding the siutation before putting out unlikely and inaccurate doomsday model intepretations.

I'm all for thinking things through before posting about doomsday, but all he posted was a blend track of models. Not sure what's wrong with that.

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Roger,

No Offense, but I think you were called out this morning for miscontruing and overhyping model outputs. Perhaps a pro- met can help you out in decipering the many complexities of model outputs. I am by no means a professional and I am sure your intentions and efforts are well meaning, but I think you should consult people with more extensive capabilites on understanding the siutation before putting out unlikely and inaccurate doomsday model intepretations.

That is actually a proper interpretation of combining model outputs and suggesting a mean. Euro makes landfall in cape may....GFS in ME, GGEM near cape cod. It's possibly a little alarmist to suggest this is likely, but thats what the models say right now.

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I'm all for thinking things through before posting about doomsday, but all he posted was a blend track of models. Not sure what's wrong with that.

I was aiming more for what he said this morning, than for what he said recently. Im sure you have media watching forums like this and items for banter have their place in other threads IMHO.

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The euro has been locked in on a MA/SNE landfall since 12z Sunday. That is incredible, because every other model has been wavering. The GFS at 12z was the first run of a full blown phase, although it was delayed a bit. Time to watch the trends, but right now the euro, euro ens, and gfs ens have been the most consistent.

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The euro has been locked in on a MA/SNE landfall since 12z Sunday. That is incredible, because every other model has been wavering. The GFS at 12z was the first run of a full blown phase, although it was delayed a bit. Time to watch the trends, but right now the euro, euro ens, and gfs ens have been the most consistent.

It's pretty remarkable for the model since a TC trough phase is such a rarity for the East.

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