Zir0b Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow. Demolition derby for LI, NJ, DE. Another worst-case scenario track. This is really starting to get concerning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Centered over E PA @ 144. Everyone gets a piece of this! What would 70-80 kt 850mb winds translate to at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 A sub 935 low slamming into anywhere from the delmarva thru NYC is potentially devastating especially because this will a long duration storm . I will argue that 70 mph winds for 20 hrs is far worse than 90 mph for a few . i am more worried than psyched .The Euro has not waivered , and unfortuantley I think the other models will trend towards it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow. Demolition derby for LI, NJ, DE. Another worst-case scenario track. This is really starting to get concerning now. Glad I don't live on Long Beach EC sticking to its guns with a Delmarva, S NJ into E PA track, no shift East at all, just a shift S&W now. Have to see if the other models on 00Z run now shift further S & W with track. Definitely looks like we have got a nice major gale storm coming for the tri-state region for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looks more likely that this will phase and hit someone, the question is where. Will it be further northeast into eastern New England or more towards the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 How much rain can this system possibly give NYC? like 6-10in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Centered over E PA @ 144. Everyone gets a piece of this! What would 70-80 kt 850mb winds translate to at the surface? I believe 70 knots is 81 mph and 80 knots is 92mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Southeast gales would be a big problem for NJ beaches and probably even LI/NY Harbor in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I believe 70 knots is 81 mph and 80 knots is 92mph. There is some reduction from 850mb winds to the surface. Someone more knowledgable than me can give a rough estimate. Maybe 10-15% reduction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looking to get a lil' chilly in NYC @ 168hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Glad I don't live on Long Beach EC sticking to its guns with a Delmarva, S NJ into E PA track, no shift East at all, just a shift S&W now. Have to see if the other models on 00Z run now shift further S & W with track. Definitely looks like we have got a nice major gale storm coming for the tri-state region for early next week. I'm almost certain they would need to evacuate us again with a track like that. You combine a storm in the 940s mb with ferocious onshore winds and the full moon for likely many hours, you would likely create an even worse scene here than Irene, which came and left fast. Hard for me to even imagine how high a surge can get for NYC/western LI with a track right through NJ. Really hoping for a more GGEM-like outcome, although just about every model run creates a disasterous outcome for some/many. We're lucky that we still have a few days to change this. I'm sure the media tonight/tomorrow will start honking like crazy if this persists. Again, the Euro's rock solid consistency here is quite telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Centered over E PA @ 144. Everyone gets a piece of this! What would 70-80 kt 850mb winds translate to at the surface? Have to remember that this is extra-tropical now and as such there will likely be a lower lapse rates near the surface. This will keep those kinds of sustained winds at that level.. but still 50-60 mph gusts would be common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm almost certain they would need to evacuate us again with a track like that. You combine a storm in the 940s mb with ferocious onshore winds and the full moon for likely many hours, you would likely create an even worse scene here than Irene, which came and left fast. Hard for me to even imagine how high a surge can get for NYC/western LI with a track right through NJ. Really hoping for a more GGEM-like outcome, although just about every model run creates a disasterous outcome for some/many. We're lucky that we still have a few days to change this. I'm sure the media tonight/tomorrow will start honking like crazy if this persists. Again, the Euro's rock solid consistency here is quite telling. I would assume verbatim this would be similar to a Cat 1 or Cat 2 surge. Refer to http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/storm_surge_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The the immense size, the extremely low pressure (sub 960, maybe sub 950?), and the relatively slow movement combined with the upcoming full moon, this event as the Euro shows would blow Irene out of the water when it comes to destruction/devastation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's almost unbelievable how locked in the Euro has been for run after run now. The GFS has waivered as far east as Africa and now as far west and New England. We now have nearly full agreement between the ECMWF op and the GEFS ensemble mean. Barring an unforesean shift in the ECMWF ensembles it's hard to bet against a direct hit in my opinion at this time. Even though I don't have a met degree, a lof of co workers consider me to be the in house "weather guy" and I have done my best to not get over excited and continue to express that there is a chance of a very significant and devastating storm. I would like to see the 10/25 12z runs before pulling the trigger, but I'm going out tonight to gas up the generator and purchase some extra cases of water and batteries. I don't know about anyone else, but I would rather go out to the stores before the mad rush over the weekend when the main stream media hype begins. The way I look at it, it's not like the batteries and water will go to waste. In all reality, winds or not, we are still looking at a major QPF event. With recent rains, the area rivers are running at normal to slightly above normal. Those that live in flood prone areas should begin preparing now incase an evacuation order is issued. Better to be ahead of the game rather than scrambling at the last minute. Keep in mind that the winds may become strong enough that the areas suspension bridges may need to be shut down, thus blocking and isolating a lot of the city and surrounding areas. So as said, no need to push the panic button just yet, but it is time to get the word out to the public so that they can begin preparing just incase this monster becomes a reality. It will already be met with some resistance as a lot of people will probably make the mistake of comparing this to Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Devil Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Any estimates as to how much rainfall we might be looking at here in the metro area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I heard from a MET that the NWS is asking offices accross the entire country to release weather balloons every 6 hrs...? is this unprecedented? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sobering thought -- a 60-20-20 blend of Euro, GEM and GFS tracks a 940 mb low directly across NYC. A 40-30-30 blend tracks a 942 mb low across central Long Island into w CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1813Z WED OCT 24 2012 DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM... ***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS*** WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sobering thought -- a 60-20-20 blend of Euro, GEM and GFS tracks a 940 mb low directly across NYC. A 40-30-30 blend tracks a 942 mb low across central Long Island into w CT. Roger, No Offense, but I think you were called out this morning for miscontruing and overhyping model outputs. Perhaps a pro- met can help you out in decipering the many complexities of model outputs. I am by no means a professional and I am sure your intentions and efforts are well meaning, but I think you should consult people with more extensive capabilites on understanding the siutation before putting out unlikely and inaccurate doomsday model intepretations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Roger, No Offense, but I think you were called out this morning for miscontruing and overhyping model outputs. Perhaps a pro- met can help you out in decipering the many complexities of model outputs. I am by no means a professional and I am sure your intentions and efforts are well meaning, but I think you should consult people with more extensive capabilites on understanding the siutation before putting out unlikely and inaccurate doomsday model intepretations. I'm all for thinking things through before posting about doomsday, but all he posted was a blend track of models. Not sure what's wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Roger, No Offense, but I think you were called out this morning for miscontruing and overhyping model outputs. Perhaps a pro- met can help you out in decipering the many complexities of model outputs. I am by no means a professional and I am sure your intentions and efforts are well meaning, but I think you should consult people with more extensive capabilites on understanding the siutation before putting out unlikely and inaccurate doomsday model intepretations. That is actually a proper interpretation of combining model outputs and suggesting a mean. Euro makes landfall in cape may....GFS in ME, GGEM near cape cod. It's possibly a little alarmist to suggest this is likely, but thats what the models say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Nothing is wrong with that if you did blend those models together it would be an outcome like that. Which in itself compared to what NYC area does see with coastal storms would be utterly devestating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm all for thinking things through before posting about doomsday, but all he posted was a blend track of models. Not sure what's wrong with that. I was aiming more for what he said this morning, than for what he said recently. Im sure you have media watching forums like this and items for banter have their place in other threads IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The euro has been locked in on a MA/SNE landfall since 12z Sunday. That is incredible, because every other model has been wavering. The GFS at 12z was the first run of a full blown phase, although it was delayed a bit. Time to watch the trends, but right now the euro, euro ens, and gfs ens have been the most consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z ECMWF 120hr Looks like a pair of leering binoculars. Tony or his remains on the right is helping to slow/delay eastward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The euro has been locked in on a MA/SNE landfall since 12z Sunday. That is incredible, because every other model has been wavering. The GFS at 12z was the first run of a full blown phase, although it was delayed a bit. Time to watch the trends, but right now the euro, euro ens, and gfs ens have been the most consistent. It's pretty remarkable for the model since a TC trough phase is such a rarity for the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z JMA is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 HPC has landfall eastern long island and southern NE http://www.hpc.ncep....ay=6&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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