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Potential major phasing event this weekend


forkyfork

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I would imagine after living through 91 No Name (perfect storm) on the Mass coastline, and 92, which in my memory, was the most ferocious coastal storm ever, I would think that some mainstream media would be talking about this, especially in terms of the remote possibility of evacuating low lying areas. I know that it's early and that a direct hit from a named tropical storm is more understandable to the public and generates more "buzz," but clearly hybrids/nor'easters, etc, can wreak even more havoc, even though their phenomena may elude most people. Are any mainstream outlets even talking about this potential? It seems almost unimaginable at this point that they evacuated housing projects and closed the subways in advance of Irene.

Al Roker walked through the model analysis on the Today Show this morning. So, um yes.

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The GFS forecast soundings have 106 KT at 900 mb north of center as the storm is getting pulled into New England

which as about 1500 ft.

Wow any high elevation locales can see some serious damage if they are found in that type of environment. Strength and final position is really going to keep a lot of people on their toes.

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So what you're saying is when this trends south the winds at the top of the ESB and WTC will be gusting to 150 MPH. ;)

Looking forward to EURO. Seems to have been holding steady, would be typical if it threw everyone for a loop and went OTS (but seems unlikely given consistency). I wish the Wunderground maps were more accurate with the wind maps... but even as-is, last night they were showing sustained winds of 40mph+ for NYC.

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Are any mainstream outlets even talking about this potential? It seems almost unimaginable at this point that they evacuated housing projects and closed the subways in advance of Irene.

The dynamics of this storm make it a much more complex forecast then your traditional hurricane/tropical storm.

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I think anything is still on the table here-the least likely now seems to be no impact at all besides the frontal passage but if the block degrades and/or the flow becomes more progressive it's certainly still possible. A second outcome would be the coastal low developing with moisture input from Sandy but not the core being taken in, which would be like a rough nor'easter. The third would obviously be a tremendous, bombing semi-tropical Sandy with the upper low diving into it. I can't see such a storm passing with no horrendous impact anywhere-along and to the right of the storm would get battered by waves and then a surge piled on by Cat-1 strength winds out of the east. The Euro last night is pretty much the nightmare scenario for us. I see merit in the idea that the storm could be faster than currently predicted and end up slamming north of here, but also we have to keep in mind how anomalous this pattern is and how a block can act to slow everything down. I don't think anyone around here is "out of the game" for a major impact. The Euro and various ensembles' continued insistence on this is really giving me pause and reason to believe this megabomb-phase could actually happen.

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Anyone also looking for an idea of what the impacts would be from a direct hit by a bomb like this should read Joe Lundberg's Accuwx column today. Frightening, and he's a forecaster who usually takes a conservative stand on things.

For whoever wants to read here his blog http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/a-day-closer-to/620775

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So what you're saying is when this trends south the winds at the top of the ESB and WTC will be gusting to 150 MPH. ;)

Sounds about right. I hope they batten down the hatch up there...

For whoever wants to read here his blog http://www.accuweath...loser-to/620775

A very good read and I couldn't agree more with the end of it. The storm will look amazing on imagery if it comes to fruition, but will do a ton of economial and environmental damage.

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Can anyone verify if 28.38" (961mb) from March 01, 1914 at CPK is still lowest ever pressure recorded in NYC? Could we come in lower with this system? Or will its pressure be rising rapidly in 'reverse bomb' fashion?

I believe there was a 951 at Bridgehampton with that storm.

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