bluewave Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The GFS forecast soundings have 106 KT at 900 mb north of center as the storm is getting pulled into New England which as about 1500 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I would imagine after living through 91 No Name (perfect storm) on the Mass coastline, and 92, which in my memory, was the most ferocious coastal storm ever, I would think that some mainstream media would be talking about this, especially in terms of the remote possibility of evacuating low lying areas. I know that it's early and that a direct hit from a named tropical storm is more understandable to the public and generates more "buzz," but clearly hybrids/nor'easters, etc, can wreak even more havoc, even though their phenomena may elude most people. Are any mainstream outlets even talking about this potential? It seems almost unimaginable at this point that they evacuated housing projects and closed the subways in advance of Irene. Al Roker walked through the model analysis on the Today Show this morning. So, um yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The GFS forecast soundings have 106 KT at 900 mb north of center as the storm is getting pulled into New England which as about 1500 ft. Wow any high elevation locales can see some serious damage if they are found in that type of environment. Strength and final position is really going to keep a lot of people on their toes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So what you're saying is when this trends south the winds at the top of the ESB and WTC will be gusting to 150 MPH. Looking forward to EURO. Seems to have been holding steady, would be typical if it threw everyone for a loop and went OTS (but seems unlikely given consistency). I wish the Wunderground maps were more accurate with the wind maps... but even as-is, last night they were showing sustained winds of 40mph+ for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Are any mainstream outlets even talking about this potential? It seems almost unimaginable at this point that they evacuated housing projects and closed the subways in advance of Irene. The dynamics of this storm make it a much more complex forecast then your traditional hurricane/tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think anything is still on the table here-the least likely now seems to be no impact at all besides the frontal passage but if the block degrades and/or the flow becomes more progressive it's certainly still possible. A second outcome would be the coastal low developing with moisture input from Sandy but not the core being taken in, which would be like a rough nor'easter. The third would obviously be a tremendous, bombing semi-tropical Sandy with the upper low diving into it. I can't see such a storm passing with no horrendous impact anywhere-along and to the right of the storm would get battered by waves and then a surge piled on by Cat-1 strength winds out of the east. The Euro last night is pretty much the nightmare scenario for us. I see merit in the idea that the storm could be faster than currently predicted and end up slamming north of here, but also we have to keep in mind how anomalous this pattern is and how a block can act to slow everything down. I don't think anyone around here is "out of the game" for a major impact. The Euro and various ensembles' continued insistence on this is really giving me pause and reason to believe this megabomb-phase could actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anyone also looking for an idea of what the impacts would be from a direct hit by a bomb like this should read Joe Lundberg's Accuwx column today. Frightening, and he's a forecaster who usually takes a conservative stand on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anyone also looking for an idea of what the impacts would be from a direct hit by a bomb like this should read Joe Lundberg's Accuwx column today. Frightening, and he's a forecaster who usually takes a conservative stand on things. For whoever wants to read here his blog http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/a-day-closer-to/620775 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 All government emergency management teams along the coastal littoral in the northeast should already be in full alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So what you're saying is when this trends south the winds at the top of the ESB and WTC will be gusting to 150 MPH. Sounds about right. I hope they batten down the hatch up there... For whoever wants to read here his blog http://www.accuweath...loser-to/620775 A very good read and I couldn't agree more with the end of it. The storm will look amazing on imagery if it comes to fruition, but will do a ton of economial and environmental damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Can anyone verify if 28.38" (961mb) from March 01, 1914 at CPK is still lowest ever pressure recorded in NYC? Could we come in lower with this system? Or will its pressure be rising rapidly in 'reverse bomb' fashion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Say it does get pulled North of li and hits new England what would the impacts if,any be down here in the NYC metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Which Low ? Sandy or another low developing ? Where is Sandy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 72hrs out on the Euro has Sandy over the gulf stream. 955mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z Euro has the TC 50-100 miles east of hatteras at 108 hrs. Very strong once again. Phase in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The monster positive anomaly/blocking ridge has build in over NF so I have a hard time seeing how this doesn't phase and retrograde again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Its phasing alittle sooner than 00z actually, what a monster storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Farther W than 00z. Storm is dangerously close to Ocean City MD at 120 and very, very strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpickett Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Can anyone verify if 28.38" (961mb) from March 01, 1914 at CPK is still lowest ever pressure recorded in NYC? Could we come in lower with this system? Or will its pressure be rising rapidly in 'reverse bomb' fashion? I believe there was a 951 at Bridgehampton with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Big steps by the CMC and the GFS towards the ECMWF solution today. Take a look at some of these monsters on the 12z GFS Ensembles: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Cape May blown away. Good lord. This is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 935 mb on instantwxmaps...at 120...jesus here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just took a look at the homepages of NOAA and the NWS, surprisingly no mention of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z ECMWF 120hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 960mb over Sea Isle City landfall at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Its barely moving with the center right over cape may at 132. Good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just took a look at the homepages of NOAA and the NWS, surprisingly no mention of the storm. Not too surprising considering the storm is still 5 days out. Their tune will change if the GFS hops on board IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just took a look at the homepages of NOAA and the NWS, surprisingly no mention of the storm. Mount Holly issued a special briefing yesterday already about potential dangerous impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 850 line moving in from the south at hr 144. Don't see that often! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.