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Potential major phasing event this weekend


forkyfork

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We had a big AO drop right before the record breaking low pressure in Minnesota back in late October 2010.

2010 10 19 -1.132

2010 10 20 -1.762

2010 10 21 -1.934

2010 10 22 -2.170

2010 10 23 -2.555

2010 10 24 -2.192

http://climate.umn.e...sure_101026.htm

I believe the AO was quite negative around the time of the perfect storm in 1991...I think the AO was very low before the November 1950 bomb...

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NHC is coming on board now... Excitement level rising!

Here is the latest track graphic from NHC - as you can see Sandy stays well offshore and then the most likely scenario is a a Nor'easter developing in reaction to the huge block near the NJ coast and then Sandy's moisture is absorbed into the deeping slow moving storm along the coast. Sandy is not going to be a direct hit along the coast -BUT the effects of this bomb developing along the coast and having basically nowhere to go right away because of the huge block will cause heavy rain / high winds and coastal flooding especially - inland flooding is the big question mark now BUT the ground is not saturated this time around so most areas should be able to absorb without much flooding several inches of rain............

http://www.nhc.noaa....-daynl#contents

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Here is the latest track graphic from NHC - as you can see Sandy stays well offshore and then the most likely scenario is a a Nor'easter developing in reaction to the huge block near the NJ coast and then Sandy's moisture is absorbed into the deeping slow moving storm along the coast. Sandy is not going to be a direct hit along the coast -BUT the effects of this bomb developing along the coast and having basically nowhere to go right away because of the huge block will cause heavy rain / high winds and coastal flooding especially - inland flooding is the big question mark now BUT the ground is not saturated this time around so most areas should be able to absorb without much flooding several inches of rain............

http://www.nhc.noaa....-daynl#contents

Your theory is certainly in the realm of possibilities, but theres no way you can say that Sandy will stay well offshore with what the ECMWF, NOGAPS and GFDL are showing...specifically the ECMWF. Lets sit back and watch, the GFS continues to nudge west each run with its ensembles showing more hits than ever. In Fact the 12Z GFS now shows a late capture in New England....late, but a capture nonetheless.

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Here is the latest track graphic from NHC - as you can see Sandy stays well offshore and then the most likely scenario is a a Nor'easter developing in reaction to the huge block near the NJ coast and then Sandy's moisture is absorbed into the deeping slow moving storm along the coast. Sandy is not going to be a direct hit along the coast -BUT the effects of this bomb developing along the coast and having basically nowhere to go right away because of the huge block will cause heavy rain / high winds and coastal flooding especially - inland flooding is the big question mark now BUT the ground is not saturated this time around so most areas should be able to absorb without much flooding several inches of rain............

http://www.nhc.noaa....-daynl#contents

Where does it say that they have decided that the secondary low is the way that they are leaning? The ECMWF has not waivered once over the past several days. Until it does, it's hard to lean against it, especially since it has the support of not only it's own ensembles but also the GEFS ensembles as well.

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Your theory is certainly in the realm of possibilities, but theres no way you can say that Sandy will stay well offshore with what the ECMWF, NOGAPS and GFDL are showing...specifically the ECMWF. Lets sit back and watch, the GFS continues to nudge west each run with its ensembles showing more hits than ever.

ECMWF ' solution alone is not correct this time around - tropical systems do not usually like to run right under upper level lows - which is going to develop in the east in response to the huge block in the north atlantic - they like to go around them - thats why the NHC graphic has Sandy staying offshore............

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I believe the AO was quite negative around the time of the perfect storm in 1991...I think the AO was very low before the November 1950 bomb...

Yeah, another -3 drop.

1991 10 27 -2.018

1991 10 28 -2.822

1991 10 29 -3.044

1991 10 30 -2.408

1991 10 31 -1.945

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Strong NW winds and maybe some showers but we'd be downsloping pretty bad so I don't think we'd get a whole ton of rain but probably gusts of 40-50 mph.

Am I missing something on this map then? Shows 3" plus of rain...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F24%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=168&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

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I live in SW suffolk county and fully expect gusts close to 65-70mph and tons of rain with this system. If this storm produces "only" 40-50 mph gusts id be shocked with how powerful its gonna be

If it goes exactly where the 12Z GFS shows into nrn NE then we'd see only 40-50 mph, the center would be hundreds of miles away and the low would not be as deep as the GFS shows, we'd need the system to come ashore within 50-100 miles of us to see something like 60+ mph, at least over widespread areas. I think this is still a system that comes in over New England as opposed to over LI or NJ because the forward speed will be too fast for it to get pulled back in time to get it in down here.

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I live in SW suffolk county and fully expect gusts close to 65-70mph and tons of rain with this system. If this storm produces "only" 40-50 mph gusts id be shocked with how powerful its gonna be

5-6 days and you'll be shocked eh? i still wouldn't be shocked by a total miss...too early for these kind of statement

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If it goes exactly where the 12Z GFS shows into nrn NE then we'd see only 40-50 mph, the center would be hundreds of miles away and the low would not be as deep as the GFS shows, we'd need the system to come ashore within 50-100 miles of us to see something like 60+ mph, at least over widespread areas. I think this is still a system that comes in over New England as opposed to over LI or NJ because the forward speed will be too fast for it to get pulled back in time to get it in down here.

So you expect it to drive right into a strong anomalous block? Or at least not be slowed down? Or you just don't buy into the idea of the strong block models seem to be portraying?

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So you expect it to drive right into a strong anomalous block? Or at least not be slowed down? Or you just don't buy into the idea of the strong block models seem to be portraying?

I think the low will track N-NNE up the coast from the Carolinas alot faster than the NOGAPS/Euro were showing which will result in the system being captured more north and as a result brought back ashore more over New England than the Mid-Atlantic.

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I think the low will track N-NNE up the coast from the Carolinas alot faster than the NOGAPS/Euro were showing which will result in the system being captured more north and as a result brought back ashore more over New England than the Mid-Atlantic.

Well the slower forward speed on those and most models seems to be a result of the strong block. I think I would buy into the faster forward speed with a weaker block or some fast steering currents.

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I don't think anyone is taking this lightly. It's just that 4-5 days out its way too early to lock onto a solution. A few more days and many model runs before we can have confidence in the track and impacts that we'll get.

Fair enough , Blocks like this love to yield big storms that result in bad intentions for the Northeast coastline . The GFS loves to take the energy off the THE NORTH AND EAST too early only to correct west , So i " like " the EURO .

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I would imagine after living through 91 No Name (perfect storm) on the Mass coastline, and 92, which in my memory, was the most ferocious coastal storm ever, I would think that some mainstream media would be talking about this, especially in terms of the remote possibility of evacuating low lying areas. I know that it's early and that a direct hit from a named tropical storm is more understandable to the public and generates more "buzz," but clearly hybrids/nor'easters, etc, can wreak even more havoc, even though their phenomena may elude most people. Are any mainstream outlets even talking about this potential? It seems almost unimaginable at this point that they evacuated housing projects and closed the subways in advance of Irene.

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Are any mainstream outlets even talking about this potential? It seems almost unimaginable at this point that they evacuated housing projects and closed the subways in advance of Irene.

Wall Street Journal mainstream?

http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/10/24/weather-journal-storm-could-make-next-week-a-mess/

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