uncle W Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 We had a big AO drop right before the record breaking low pressure in Minnesota back in late October 2010. 2010 10 19 -1.132 2010 10 20 -1.762 2010 10 21 -1.934 2010 10 22 -2.170 2010 10 23 -2.555 2010 10 24 -2.192 http://climate.umn.e...sure_101026.htm I believe the AO was quite negative around the time of the perfect storm in 1991...I think the AO was very low before the November 1950 bomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NHC is coming on board now... Excitement level rising! Here is the latest track graphic from NHC - as you can see Sandy stays well offshore and then the most likely scenario is a a Nor'easter developing in reaction to the huge block near the NJ coast and then Sandy's moisture is absorbed into the deeping slow moving storm along the coast. Sandy is not going to be a direct hit along the coast -BUT the effects of this bomb developing along the coast and having basically nowhere to go right away because of the huge block will cause heavy rain / high winds and coastal flooding especially - inland flooding is the big question mark now BUT the ground is not saturated this time around so most areas should be able to absorb without much flooding several inches of rain............ http://www.nhc.noaa....-daynl#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here is the latest track graphic from NHC - as you can see Sandy stays well offshore and then the most likely scenario is a a Nor'easter developing in reaction to the huge block near the NJ coast and then Sandy's moisture is absorbed into the deeping slow moving storm along the coast. Sandy is not going to be a direct hit along the coast -BUT the effects of this bomb developing along the coast and having basically nowhere to go right away because of the huge block will cause heavy rain / high winds and coastal flooding especially - inland flooding is the big question mark now BUT the ground is not saturated this time around so most areas should be able to absorb without much flooding several inches of rain............ http://www.nhc.noaa....-daynl#contents Your theory is certainly in the realm of possibilities, but theres no way you can say that Sandy will stay well offshore with what the ECMWF, NOGAPS and GFDL are showing...specifically the ECMWF. Lets sit back and watch, the GFS continues to nudge west each run with its ensembles showing more hits than ever. In Fact the 12Z GFS now shows a late capture in New England....late, but a capture nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z GFS finally has the phase just a little further east than the Euro. Big step toward Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Our local TV in Charleston just showed the ECMWF with Sandy heading right for C LI late Monday or very early Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here is the latest track graphic from NHC - as you can see Sandy stays well offshore and then the most likely scenario is a a Nor'easter developing in reaction to the huge block near the NJ coast and then Sandy's moisture is absorbed into the deeping slow moving storm along the coast. Sandy is not going to be a direct hit along the coast -BUT the effects of this bomb developing along the coast and having basically nowhere to go right away because of the huge block will cause heavy rain / high winds and coastal flooding especially - inland flooding is the big question mark now BUT the ground is not saturated this time around so most areas should be able to absorb without much flooding several inches of rain............ http://www.nhc.noaa....-daynl#contents Where does it say that they have decided that the secondary low is the way that they are leaning? The ECMWF has not waivered once over the past several days. Until it does, it's hard to lean against it, especially since it has the support of not only it's own ensembles but also the GEFS ensembles as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just say gfs solution verified & it gets pulled NW by ME, would there be any impact here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Your theory is certainly in the realm of possibilities, but theres no way you can say that Sandy will stay well offshore with what the ECMWF, NOGAPS and GFDL are showing...specifically the ECMWF. Lets sit back and watch, the GFS continues to nudge west each run with its ensembles showing more hits than ever. ECMWF ' solution alone is not correct this time around - tropical systems do not usually like to run right under upper level lows - which is going to develop in the east in response to the huge block in the north atlantic - they like to go around them - thats why the NHC graphic has Sandy staying offshore............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I believe the AO was quite negative around the time of the perfect storm in 1991...I think the AO was very low before the November 1950 bomb... Yeah, another -3 drop. 1991 10 27 -2.018 1991 10 28 -2.822 1991 10 29 -3.044 1991 10 30 -2.408 1991 10 31 -1.945 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z nogaps has a 952 low right on NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just say gfs solution verified & it gets pulled NW by ME, would there be any impact here? Strong NW winds and maybe some showers but we'd be downsloping pretty bad so I don't think we'd get a whole ton of rain but probably gusts of 40-50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z nogaps has a 952 low right on NYC Which Low ? Sandy or another low developing ? Where is Sandy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Another trend towards a euro solution with a faster phase. I'll be shocked if the euro wavers much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Strong NW winds and maybe some showers but we'd be downsloping pretty bad so I don't think we'd get a whole ton of rain but probably gusts of 40-50 mph. Am I missing something on this map then? Shows 3" plus of rain... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F24%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=168&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I live in SW suffolk county and fully expect gusts close to 65-70mph and tons of rain with this system. If this storm produces "only" 40-50 mph gusts id be shocked with how powerful its gonna be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I live in SW suffolk county and fully expect gusts close to 65-70mph and tons of rain with this system. If this storm produces "only" 40-50 mph gusts id be shocked with how powerful its gonna be If it goes exactly where the 12Z GFS shows into nrn NE then we'd see only 40-50 mph, the center would be hundreds of miles away and the low would not be as deep as the GFS shows, we'd need the system to come ashore within 50-100 miles of us to see something like 60+ mph, at least over widespread areas. I think this is still a system that comes in over New England as opposed to over LI or NJ because the forward speed will be too fast for it to get pulled back in time to get it in down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z nogaps has a 952 low right on NYC This is true. But it also has landfall over FL SE Coast first. I'd be wary of using it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I live in SW suffolk county and fully expect gusts close to 65-70mph and tons of rain with this system. If this storm produces "only" 40-50 mph gusts id be shocked with how powerful its gonna be 5-6 days and you'll be shocked eh? i still wouldn't be shocked by a total miss...too early for these kind of statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GGEM is back....landfall around the cape monday. 945 over providence, RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 5-6 days and you'll be shocked eh? i still wouldn't be shocked by a total miss...too early for these kind of statement Dont think this misses , in fact i think its ugly , and wouldnt take this lightly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If it goes exactly where the 12Z GFS shows into nrn NE then we'd see only 40-50 mph, the center would be hundreds of miles away and the low would not be as deep as the GFS shows, we'd need the system to come ashore within 50-100 miles of us to see something like 60+ mph, at least over widespread areas. I think this is still a system that comes in over New England as opposed to over LI or NJ because the forward speed will be too fast for it to get pulled back in time to get it in down here. So you expect it to drive right into a strong anomalous block? Or at least not be slowed down? Or you just don't buy into the idea of the strong block models seem to be portraying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So you expect it to drive right into a strong anomalous block? Or at least not be slowed down? Or you just don't buy into the idea of the strong block models seem to be portraying? I think the low will track N-NNE up the coast from the Carolinas alot faster than the NOGAPS/Euro were showing which will result in the system being captured more north and as a result brought back ashore more over New England than the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I don't think anyone is taking this lightly. It's just that 4-5 days out its way too early to lock onto a solution. A few more days and many model runs before we can have confidence in the track and impacts that we'll get. Dont think this misses , in fact i think its ugly , and wouldnt take this lightly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think the low will track N-NNE up the coast from the Carolinas alot faster than the NOGAPS/Euro were showing which will result in the system being captured more north and as a result brought back ashore more over New England than the Mid-Atlantic. Well the slower forward speed on those and most models seems to be a result of the strong block. I think I would buy into the faster forward speed with a weaker block or some fast steering currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I don't think anyone is taking this lightly. It's just that 4-5 days out its way too early to lock onto a solution. A few more days and many model runs before we can have confidence in the track and impacts that we'll get. Fair enough , Blocks like this love to yield big storms that result in bad intentions for the Northeast coastline . The GFS loves to take the energy off the THE NORTH AND EAST too early only to correct west , So i " like " the EURO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GEFS into NYC/NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GEFS into NYC/NJ Scary stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I would imagine after living through 91 No Name (perfect storm) on the Mass coastline, and 92, which in my memory, was the most ferocious coastal storm ever, I would think that some mainstream media would be talking about this, especially in terms of the remote possibility of evacuating low lying areas. I know that it's early and that a direct hit from a named tropical storm is more understandable to the public and generates more "buzz," but clearly hybrids/nor'easters, etc, can wreak even more havoc, even though their phenomena may elude most people. Are any mainstream outlets even talking about this potential? It seems almost unimaginable at this point that they evacuated housing projects and closed the subways in advance of Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Dont think this misses , in fact i think its ugly , and wouldnt take this lightly . i dont think so either,but to say 5 days out you would be shocked by only40 mph winds is silly, still plenty of variability here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mweisenfeld Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Are any mainstream outlets even talking about this potential? It seems almost unimaginable at this point that they evacuated housing projects and closed the subways in advance of Irene. Wall Street Journal mainstream? http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/10/24/weather-journal-storm-could-make-next-week-a-mess/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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