blizzardof09 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Gotta say this past 24 hours we've seen what looks a better chance a more phased/devestating solution over the OTS solution. This is gonna get very exciting to say the least for forecasting the next 72-96 hours. If anything the ensembles run of the globals have been more amped than the operational runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 6z GFS is so close now to a euro bomb but its doing everthing it can not to show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The 6z GFS is much smaller with the North Atlantic low compared to 0z ECMWF, early next week. Which is how GFS still goes east with Sandy. I don't think this much weakening is likely. Given that N. Atlantic low with be entraining or phasing with other systems in Atlantic, such as TS Tony: GFS ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EC ensembles bring the low to Cape Cod and GEFS bring it west towards BID, LI, and NYC. Thinking the GFS op may tweak itself at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EC ensembles bring the low to Cape Cod and GEFS bring it west towards BID, LI, and NYC. Thinking the GFS op may tweak itself at 12z? We've been saying that for 36hrs lol. And each run has trended west with ts sandy down south, it still hard turns her right at OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 0z GGEM ensemble mean. West of the op. EC ensembles bring the low to Cape Cod and GEFS bring it west towards BID, LI, and NYC. Thinking the GFS op may tweak itself at 12z? Seems like there are some members who are leaning west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Seems like there are some members who are leaning west. Probably members that are west, east, and develop separate low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 We've been saying that for 36hrs lol. And each run has trended west with ts sandy down south, it still hard turns her right at OBX. The general pattern has gotten better. There is still time left, but even the 06z op started to try and come west. It's possible it may not shift at 12z...as we have still 6 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I counted eight 6z GFS ensemble members, that bring phased Sandy somwhere between MA and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I counted eight 6z GFS ensemble members, that bring phased Sandy somwhere between MA and VA. There is going to be fine tuning of the forecast the next several days as to exact location once the Pacific energy gets better sampled near the West Coast and Sandy lifts north of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 There is going to be fine tuning of the forecast the next several days as to exact location once the Pacific energy gets better sampled near the West Coast and Sandy lifts north of Cuba. I think there will be some fine tuning, due to the handling of the N. Atlantic low and the NF ridge, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 As NWS, Upton put it, "Low confidence, high impact forecast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Ch 5 has rain for my area Sunday -Tuesday. Mike Woods mentioned that the GFS is ots but moving closer each run. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I agree with one of the posts i read yesterday afternoon , this blocking really argues for where , not if . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFDL http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=126hr Slams right into Deleware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFDL http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=126hr This model has come way west no? Even the 00z euro- the storm comes into Sandy Hook, NJ? As oppose to Montauk, NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFDL http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=126hr Slams right into Deleware Atlantic City is now Atlantis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This model has come way west no? Even the 00z euro- the storm comes into Sandy Hook, NJ? As oppose to Montauk, NY? Yes it has .Some more models are catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The GFDL was at least 600 miles east on yesterday's run, very interesting what's unfolding here on the data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 More GFS ensembles are moving west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So anywhere from Spain to the Delmarva......^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So anywhere from Spain to the Delmarva......^^^ The out to sea solution is starting to close on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 There is going to be fine tuning of the forecast the next several days as to exact location once the Pacific energy gets better sampled near the West Coast and Sandy lifts north of Cuba. Here are the recon requirements from the NHC page. What I find to be interesting is why aren't they flying out into the NE Pacific to sample the atmosphere out there? With what is being modeled and the potential threat to the US east coast that should be an easy decision to make. Plan of the Day 000 NOUS42 KNHC 231544 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1145 AM EDT TUE 23 OCTOBER 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z OCTOBER 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-157 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. TROPICAL STORM SANDY FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72 A. 25/0000Z,0600Z A. 25/1200Z,1800Z B. AFXXX 0518A SANDY B. AFXXX 0618A SANDY C. 24/2000Z C. 25/0815Z D. 18.9N 77.0W D. 21.4N 76.8W E. 24/2330Z TO 25/0600Z E. 25/1130Z TO 25/1800Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. $$ JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Latest HPC Comments: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 949 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 VALID 12Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 12Z WED OCT 31 2012 ...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A MAJOR STORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED THE 00Z/24 GEFS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. WITH ALL THE ACTION ALONG THE EAST COAST, THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES ARE AWASH IN PACIFIC AIR, WITH AN ENSEMBLE MEAN SERVING THOSE REGIONS WELL, CONSIDERING THE INHERENT TIMING ISSUES IN THE MORE OPEN FLOW THERE. THE USE OF THE MEAN FOR THE EAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACILITATES MORE LEEWAY TO ADJUST SANDY'S TRACK AS NEEDED BASED ON LATER FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AS WELL AS THE PROBLEMATIC POST-TROPICAL PHASE OF THE CYCLONE. WITH REGARD TO SANDY'S ULTIMATE FATE VIS A VIS THE AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EAST, THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE WHOLE OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, IN THE CASE OF THE 00Z/23 GFS AND GEM GLOBAL, ARE OUTLIERS TO THE MAJORITY OF THEIR ENSEMBLE BROTHERS AND SISTERS, WITH THE LION'S SHARE OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING A WHOLESALE INCORPORATION OF SANDY'S POST-TROPICAL CIRCULATION INTO THE UPPER VORTEX CLOSING OVER THE CONTINENT. THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN SEEMS DESTINED TO BECOME DOMINATED BY BLOCKY HIGHS AND LOWS, WITH DECREASING WIGGLE ROOM FOR EVEN LARGE FEATURES LIKE SANDY. THE BLOCKING IS KEY TO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC STORM OF TROPICAL ORIGIN AND THE NORTH AMERICAN VORTEX OF POLAR ORIGIN. SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT SPIN UP A TREMENDOUSLY DEEP SURFACE LOW BACK ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LONG ISLAND INCLUDE THE 00Z/24 ECMWF, 00Z/24 NOGAPS, AND 06Z/24 GLOBAL HURRICANE MODEL. IF IT BECOMES CLEARER WITH THE ADVENT OF THE 12Z/24 GUIDANCE THAT A LARGE HYBRID LOW IS LIKELY DAY 6, WILL ADJUST THE FINAL PROGS TOWARD A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION, WHICH WOULD ROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE MANUAL FORECAST AND DEEPEN THE PRESSURE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE LUNAR CYCLE WILL PROVE TO BE A FACTOR IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH HIGH TIDES MOST ANOMALOUS FROM THAT EFFECT ALONE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 the block just keeps getting stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 the block just keeps getting stronger... We had a big AO drop right before the record breaking low pressure in Minnesota back in late October 2010. 2010 10 19 -1.132 2010 10 20 -1.762 2010 10 21 -1.934 2010 10 22 -2.170 2010 10 23 -2.555 2010 10 24 -2.192 http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/low_pressure_101026.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NHC is coming on board now... Excitement level rising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here are the recon requirements from the NHC page. What I find to be interesting is why aren't they flying out into the NE Pacific to sample the atmosphere out there? With what is being modeled and the potential threat to the US east coast that should be an easy decision to make. Probably due to their budget being very tight and not wanting to spend it on a pre-winter storm sending a Gulf Stream jet out there. They have an Atlantic basin hurricane to monitor and that probably takes precedent over upper air monitoring plus budgetary concerns IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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