MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 0z Nogaps slams into Central Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS decides to give us a 1,000 mile long inverted trof instead of the hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS decides to give us a 1,000 mile long inverted trof instead of the hybrid. I will take "I don't think so" for $200 please Alex (as in I dont think a 1,000 mile inverted trough will happen) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Man there is a strong north atlantic block on the GFS. I have a hard time believing sandy will escape east as she does. Plus with that block in place as it is, you would think sandy would be forced due north or even slightly west of north. Would argue for more interaction with CONUS trough if true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Man there is a strong north atlantic block on the GFS. I have a hard time believing sandy will escape east as she does. Plus with that block in place as it is, you would think sandy would be forced due north or even slightly west of north. Would argue for more interaction with CONUS trough if true The issue is that the trof over the Central US which slides into the OV is not strong or energetic enough (like it is on the Euro) to keep diving southeast and phase with the TC. Instead it weakens and flattens out and, for a while, almost nudges the TC into a weakness to the east. Eventually as she gains latitude the energy slide east and phases, and the TC is forced to retrograde underneath the big anomaly over Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not convinced the block near newfoundland is anomalous? 18z GEFS 500mb height departures from average were +36 with a 576dm ridge over Eastern NF at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 0z GGEM is still OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 0z GGEM is still OTS It hasn't updated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It hasn't updated... Some of the color maps updated, but unless he's getting it from another source...the rest of them havent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Ggem look to catch it at 144 or is it gonna be to late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GGEM doesn't catch Sandy but bombs the secondary low, to 969 by 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Some of the color maps updated, but unless he's getting it from another source...the rest of them havent. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GEM @ 168 has a 969mb Low sitting on Block Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy goes way east on the GGEM...over Bermuda...but then this happens. Lots of consistency here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The 0z GGEM is out on Metrocentre site. Sandy goes to sea. But a big Nor'easter for forms east of LI by 168hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 That's the secondary low that forms, which then bombs itself... From it's position at 120 and the trough orientation to the west, it seems a tad strange that it would kick Sandy east, sort of like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 0z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Even stronger than the 12z. True but it looks like it ticked east a bit? Then again I don't remember the 12z runs too well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 True but it looks like it ticked east a bit? Then again I don't remember the 12z runs too well... Yeah it's a bit east, not a whole lot. It's actually south of its 12z position as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not making the progress i'd liked to see on the 0z's tonight. Probably atleast 3 more days with this model madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm a little surprised at how far east the GGEM was...that was similar to the old GFS solutions with absolutely no interaction at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm a little surprised at how far east the GGEM was...that was similar to the old GFS solutions with absolutely no interaction at all. Thing is, have the models been overdoing the phase from the beginning, and that even with a more favorable trough setup, it won't do it? That said some of these runs have looked a bit strange, whether they are pulling nearly boomerang curves back towards the coast or continuing east when circumstances are questionable for it to do so, which is highlighting the unstable nature of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not making the progress i'd liked to see on the 0z's tonight. Probably atleast 3 more days with this model madness I'd say that several million people on the East Coast don't want to see progress with this potential storm going forward, and every model that brings in more questions on if it will happen or not is the kind of progress that we want to see. As exciting as it is for everyone on here to wish for some of the models to verify, I can't wish that upon people the way it was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'd say that several million people on the East Coast don't want to see progress with this potential storm going forward, and every model that brings in more questions on if it will happen or not is the kind of progress that we want to see. As exciting as it is for everyone on here to wish for some of the models to verify, I can't wish that upon people the way it was modeled. I don't think anyone is "wishing" this on anybody, they just want to see something after a year of futility. FWIW, the GGEM's nor'easter is definitely something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm a little surprised at how far east the GGEM was...that was similar to the old GFS solutions with absolutely no interaction at all. I'm not. The inconsistency of the GGEM model has not gone unnoticed. It rarely holds onto a storm track over a given period. However, it did look like the GFS in that it developed a secondary off of the primary "hybrid quasi-subtropical storm" or whatever you want to call it. The norlun trough there did make sense...not everything before it though. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm not. The inconsistency of the GGEM model has not gone unnoticed. It rarely holds onto a storm track over a given period. However, it did look like the GFS in that it developed a secondary off of the primary "hybrid quasi-subtropical storm" or whatever you want to call it. The norlun trough there did make sense...not everything before it though. Lol. Well i'm not surprised it's fluctuating...I guess I just didn't expect it to flatten out completely like that. The hybrid-psuedo-quasi subtropical inverted trough on the GFS turns into a ULL on the GGEM..and my head is spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well i'm not surprised it's fluctuating...I guess I just didn't expect it to flatten out completely like that. The hybrid-psuedo-quasi subtropical inverted trough on the GFS turns into a ULL on the GGEM..and my head is spinning. Yours? I should lay off the wine. Lol Anyway, EURO coming in now. At 24 hours I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 965 mb in the Bahamas at 48 hrs, pretty tight looking TC right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro looks the same to me thru 72. Trough is actually digging alittle more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro looks the same to me thru 72. Trough is actually digging alittle more. Farther southwest with the N Atlantic ULL which I don't necessarily like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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