yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Those are available at this experimental page http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Early guidance (some gfs based) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z CMC ensembles mean (See post below) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I am supposed to fly out of here at 2 PM Sunday and return Monday evening. Sort of need this to go OTS or produce flight cancellations Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I am supposed to fly out of here at 2 PM Sunday and return Monday evening. Sort of need this to go OTS or produce flight cancellations Sunday. I'm supposed to be flying out on Tuesday morning on Jet Blue but I'm 1/6 actually flying on them as I've been canceled 4 times due to weather including the Boxing Day storm. With my luck it would figure this would happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z CMC ensembles mean with six days to go, to see that mean solution, it's tough to see right now the escape hatch idea holding sway for long. anything can happen of course, but i am getting more convinced that it's only a matter of 'how bad' and not 'if.' should be a long, fun few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Nam looks euro ish in a way. Hopefully Gfs joins euro club in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The shortwave that eventually results in the best height falls and aids in the phase is not the strong lead vortmax, but the one that drops over the top of the E Pac ridge at 54 hr. While the initial vortmax helps to deamplify the height field a bit, the second one rips south and east on the Euro and more phased models and eventually captures the TC. Loop for a better view (yes I know it's the NAM, but it can be used as an illustration in this case since it's similar to the Euro). Keep a close eye on the shortwave in the Pac NW at 54 hours and watch as it moves southeast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_0z/wrfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The shortwave that eventually results in the best height falls and aids in the phase is not the strong lead vortmax, but the one that drops over the top of the E Pac ridge at 54 hr. While the initial vortmax helps to deamplify the height field a bit, the second one rips south and east on the Euro and more phased models and eventually captures the TC. Loop for a better view (yes I know it's the NAM, but it can be used as an illustration in this case since it's similar to the Euro). Keep a close eye on the shortwave in the Pac NW at 54 hours and watch as it moves southeast. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/wrfloop.html yes its the second S/W we want the first to escape to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's the NAM, but the amount of digging is pretty nice looking for that range. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I leave you guys with this. 12z ensembles mean collection GFS/ECM/CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS is clearly more amplified and favoring a farther west solution when compared to the 12z run through about Day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS is clearly more amplified and favoring a farther west solution when compared to the 12z run through about Day 3. Thought the same. We'll see how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Thought the same. We'll see how this goes. Once the N Atlantic ULL starts shifting southeast the Newfoundland blocking should start to crank, too. We'll see how it plays out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not too enthused with the second shortwave, which is the one the Euro shoots southeast to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not too enthused with the second shortwave, which is the one the Euro shoots southeast to phase. I really think the GFS is having so much trouble with this, I mean honestly it looks like it should do it easily, then the s/w energy gets lost, and the phase gets screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here comes the Newfoundland block starting to appear at 96 hours...this should be interesting. The GFS is not very enthused with the Central US trof like the Euro..so we'll see what it does here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here comes the Newfoundland block starting to appear at 96 hours...this should be interesting. The GFS is not very enthused with the Central US trof like the Euro..so we'll see what it does here. No its not... its pretty weak looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Here comes the Newfoundland block starting to appear at 96 hours...this should be interesting. The GFS is not very enthused with the Central US trof like the Euro..so we'll see what it does here. I think it looks better than 18z regarding that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Better ridge NE of Sandy too. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 No its not... its pretty weak looking The issue is that now it's caught in between, because it's trended the ULL faster and farther east by a hair and the TC farther west. So it can't slide the TC east with the NF block now starting to go on steroids by 108 hr. That block is huge because it essentially will both force the Central US energy towards the TC and stop the TC from moving E/NE. But the GFS is being very stubborn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Still SW of its position on h5 when you compare 00z at 105 to 18z at 111... but I think the trough is too weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think it looks better than 18z regarding that. Definitely...i'm comparing it to the 12z run and it's almost useless to do so at this point because this run is hundreds of miles farther west with the TC and not even remotely close with the upper air pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Center moves due east from 108 to 120...that's the difference between the Euro's energetic trof over the Central US sweeping down into the E US, and the GFS' more mundane version of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Definitely...i'm comparing it to the 12z run and it's almost useless to do so at this point because this run is hundreds of miles farther west with the TC and not even remotely close with the upper air pattern. GFS is still stubborn, but the overall pattern looks better both west and east of it. It still may not be quite enough, but a better trend imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Through 120hr, Central US Trough looks deeper on the 0z GFS than at 12z and Sandy is farther SW. N Atlantic block further stronger too. Still not enough for an early capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Center moves due east from 108 to 120...that's the difference between the Euro's energetic trof over the Central US sweeping down into the E US, and the GFS' more mundane version of it. Yup... GFS sneaks Sandy out the side door just in time cause the trough is too weak to pull Sandy back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I see a lot of improvements on the gfs. There are massive changes everywhere and it is definitely trending towards a bigger storm. A few more tweaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 And then you have this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Nogaps is very amped, looks like a much earlier phase, let's see if there is any model convergence tonight and tomorrow. The gfs at least came a bit closer to the Euro, ensembles will be interesting once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 And then you have this... Another monster hit, looks further south and west compared to 12z, the consistency on some of these models is very alarming IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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