Kaner587 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 lol the GFS backs sandy (although likely hybrid/ET at that point) up into northern maine at hr 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFDL is close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS hasnt handled this system very well at all at this point. the euro on the other hand has been pretty close to rock solid. dont know about you guys but the euro is gonna be the one to beat in this storms forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 lol the GFS backs sandy (although likely hybrid/ET at that point) up into northern maine at hr 216 Looking at the pressure gradient on the OP GFS, winds should be somewhat strong here even though storm is near Nova Scotia, but nothing compared to the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Because of the massive block building in, even the gfs eventually forces the storm west although it will be much weaker and much further north than if it were to phase earlier. The ensembles should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS hasnt handled this system very well at all at this point. the euro on the other hand has been pretty close to rock solid. dont know about you guys but the euro is gonna be the one to beat in this storms forecast How can you say that!? All the players are 1000+ miles away. If your talking about consistancy, even the euro has had its troubles with timing and how it brings Sandy in... ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 How can you say that!? All the players are 1000+ miles away. If your talking about consistancy, even the euro has had its troubles with timing and how it brings Sandy in... ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Because triple bunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Because triple bunner. wow! triple bunner just made my night thanks andyhb for the laugh tonight and after the terrible day ive had at work too lol. you gotta admit though generally speaking the GFS isnt our "best" forecast model we got overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The GEFS so far are coming in stronger with Sandy than they were with the 06z run. The mean is about 6 mb stronger, and a bit north of where the 06z GEFS had the positioning of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 18z GFS ensemble mean looking close to a Long Islandish hit, hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GEFS mean brings it onshore in southern New England at hr. 174.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 18z GEFS looks fairly similar to the 12z GEFS, and is a touch north of where the 12z ECMWF had the placement of the low. The mean looks nothing like the operational again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Direct hit on NJ coast at hr. 144 on P004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 More incoming at hr. 156. P003 and P005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 P006 and P009 going to kiss Cape Cod at hr. 168 with southern New England hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 as of right now i think its gonna be alot worse for LI especially with the wind, surge and rain combine! and the euro isnt budging at all with this storm in fact its making an earlier phase and getting stronger It will max out at 928.2 mb at Udall Rd. and Sunrise Highway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It will max out at 928.2 mb at Udall Rd. and Sunrise Highway yes exactly probably closer to bayshore rd. haha. but seriously though eyewall as of right now this is def a powerhouse system that doesnt come by all that often in the grand scheme of things. im really liking what im seeing so far with the models todday though as far as getting a more wrapped up/better phased solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 "Powerhouse capable of whipping the Atlantic into a frenzy and churning up dangerous tides". Nice. ...not!! i live close to the ocean on ELI...it would be devastating to say the least and ruin our way of life..no disrespect,john, but i'm hoping for a OTS solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So almost half of the GEFS Individual members were a hit with this storm. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ...not!! i live close to the ocean on ELI...it would be devastating to say the least and ruin our way of life..no disrespect,john, but i'm hoping for a OTS solution.. YES....Please OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 YES....Please OTS. I'll be out on LI the 26th-4th as well, I don't need any power outages...I don't like the GFS starting to jump on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Im in LI too and if the intense solutions do verify will that warrant any evacuation on the island?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GEFS. The trend for more ensemble support continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I would guess evacuations would be in order if the extreme solutions verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Im in LI too and if the intense solutions do verify will that warrant any evacuation on the island?? most likely from montauk highway south id say currently especially with this surge this storm may produce with a high tide/full moon phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GEFS. The trend for more ensemble support continues. Only three ensemble members have Sandy legitimately going OTS, quite the change from yesterday's Individual Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Upton AFD FORECAST DETAILS NECESSARILY REMAIN SKETCHY AT THIS POINT. WINDY CONDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SOME COASTAL FLOODING COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME LIKELY...WITH A WORST CASE SCENARIO OF FLOODING RAINS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING...FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 UKM and CMC ensembles (respectively) 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 superstorm, where are you finding these great images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 superstorm, where are you finding these great images? Those are available at this experimental page http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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