Jefflaw77 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If this even comes close to fruition, I wonder how the media will hype this...as a hurricane or Noreaster? As we all know- the halloween storm 1991 caused massive flooding on Long Island... It would appear that this potential storm has the possibility of causing similar if not worse flooding in and around these parts? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Isotherm according to the euro it looks like sustained winds of 65-70kts. Wonder what the gusts would be? Not only that but this storm in itself is gonna be nothing short of memorable for all in the northeast if it happens as the euro forecasts Coastal areas would be wrecked by surge and flooding, perhaps especially the north shore and northern NYC due to the Sound flooding if the track the Euro shows is verbatim, due to NE fetch into the sound and down the East River. If the low takes a more southern track than that, there would be a major surge up the New York Harbor and south shore Long Island, probably worse than Dec 1992 or Irene. The pivoting nature of the low ensures a long lasting impact as well. The wind would be awful, probably Cat 1 winds for most near the coast, but the flooding/surge I suspect is what many will remember and talk about for many years, if this comes true. Irene's surge pretty much covered all of Long Beach and was quickly gone, and that was a borderline TS/hurricane. I could only imagine what this storm would do over multiple tide cycles. Again, this ain't something to play around with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Can this potential storm come close to matching December 1992 with the fool moon during high tide cycles? Of course the exact track will help determine if any surge will be added. That storm closed bridges with high winds and flooded out a bunch of subway lines. Even a few blocks in lower Manhattan and along the east river were under water. Upstate also got crushed with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 As we all know- the halloween storm 1991 caused massive flooding on Long Island... It would appear that this potential storm has the possibility of causing similar if not worse flooding in and around these parts? No? North Shore areas maybe such as perhaps NRN Queens due to funnelling down LI sound but most places on the South Shore of LI would be okay outside of maybe Freeport because the winds would be N-NE. Also the N-NE winds as I said yday generally due much less tree damage here because its a direction the trees are used to getting relatively strong winds from. I think the only way this is a catastrophe for this area is if it cuts inland to the south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 ok jm1220 that was a little freaky.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It looks like the Euro ensembles are suggesting a slightly earlier phase than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Still 150 hours away but interesting to see the Euro & ensembles dig their heels in and not budge..in fact it's arguable the ensembles are more phased than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 North Shore areas maybe such as perhaps NRN Queens due to funnelling down LI sound but most places on the South Shore of LI would be okay outside of maybe Freeport because the winds would be N-NE. Also the N-NE winds as I said yday generally due much less tree damage here because its a direction the trees are used to getting relatively strong winds from. I think the only way this is a catastrophe for this area is if it cuts inland to the south of us. We've never had 65-80mph N/NE winds before w/ foliage.. So to predict that the damage would be less may be inaccurate.. Just my thoughts.. I'm not saying you are wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Still 150 hours away but interesting to see the Euro & ensembles dig their heels in and not budge..in fact it's arguable the ensembles are more phased than the OP. Interestingly enough in the 2/2010 storm which was a somewhat similar deal the Canadian saw the setup at Day 10 and basically never budged, it was one of the worst to see this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 We've never had 65-80mph N/NE winds before w/ foliage.. So to gather what type of damage would occur could be dangerous.. Its hard for me to see winds of that magnitude on the NW side of this system, the storm would basically need to be a Cat 2 upon reaching New England which right now I don't see happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Its hard for me to see winds of that magnitude on the NW side of this system, the storm would basically need to be a Cat 2 upon reaching New England which right now I don't see happening. I think 55-65mph winds seem fair w/ gusts possibly to hurricane force- no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think 55-65mph winds seem fair w/ gusts possibly to hurricane force- no? I would say similar to Irene possible as of this exact situation shown now so maybe 40-50 gusts to 60. Obviously places like LGA if the wind is more ENE could see serious funnelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I would say similar to Irene possible as of this exact situation shown now so maybe 40-50 gusts to 60. Obviously places like LGA if the wind is more ENE could see serious funnelling. Lets hope so.. I really don't want to witness 70mph+ winds.. It will ruin everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Lets hope so.. I really don't want to witness 70mph+ winds.. It will ruin everyone! The good news is we Darwined alot of trees with the 3/2010 and Irene events....also some trees could defoliate as the event occurred...the trees are a bit more peaked out once you get up into Westchester and CT than they are on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The good news is we Darwined alot of trees with the 3/2010 and Irene events....also some trees could defoliate as the event occurred...the trees are a bit more peaked out once you get up into Westchester and CT than they are on LI. Ya, well regardless, I imagine if this thing does come to fruition, it's going to be 1991 on steroids.. We didn't see much rain or wind w/ that event.. With this, it could be the whole package.. tremendous rain, flooding, tidal flooding, and wind which will undoubtedly cause massive power outages.. This doesn't look like fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This doesn't look like fun! Yes it does. That's why we're all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Ya, well regardless, I imagine if this thing does come to fruition, it's going to be 1991 on steroids.. We didn't see much rain or wind w/ that event.. With this, it could be the whole package.. tremendous rain, flooding, tidal flooding, and wind which will undoubtedly cause massive power outages.. This doesn't look like fun! as of right now i think its gonna be alot worse for LI especially with the wind, surge and rain combine! and the euro isnt budging at all with this storm in fact its making an earlier phase and getting stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Unfortunatly some posters, and not just in this sub-forum, mets included have made the mistake of comparning this event (wind wise) to Irene. Irene was a decaying tropical cyclone at this latitude and it was an entirely different synoptic setup. In this case, you have a bombing low (sub 950mb likely) moving WNW into the coast. In my opinion, the best comparision wind wise would be to the Boxing Day Blizzard. We all know how that turned out. Sandy is modeled to take a very similar trajectory into the coastline. Let us all remember also that with Irene we didn't have a block to the NE preventing this from heading out to sea. It would be much wiser to treat this system like you would a strong noreaster rather than a post tropical cyclone. One would think that the gradiant will be particularly strong on the NE side between the low and the historic block to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Through hour 72 on the 18z GFS, there are no real huge differences with the 12z GFS. The storm appears to be a touch weaker than the 12z GFS had it at hour 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sandy looks like it's phasing with the trough a touch earlier on the 18z GFS than the 12z GFS had. Let's see if this makes any meaningful differences. The vorticy associated with Sandy at 500 mb is also a touch northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The Vorticy is noticeably weaker with Sandy on the 18z GFS at hour 81 than it was with the 12z GFS. The vorticy appears to be around 30-40 miles to the northwest of where the 12z GFS had it at hour 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS is farther west with the TC but now can't make its mind up on the Central US troughing..which is weaker this run. With the NF block not built in yet, the cyclone has room to escape east for a while before it phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This is definitely going to be close again. Can not say for sure with regard to where this will lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This is definitely going to be close again. Can not say for sure with regard to where this will lead. It's not close, the vort over the Central US is nowhere near as energetic and the TC will move east. If it had maintained the same trough over the Central US as 12z, it would've been an interesting solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 While the GFS continues to be on its OTS track ..the NOGAPS stays the course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yes it does. That's why we're all here. this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's not close, the vort over the Central US is nowhere near as energetic and the TC will move east. If it had maintained the same trough over the Central US as 12z, it would've been an interesting solution. Having a partial phase with two synoptic features is definitely close for the trough to be able to capture the storm and tuck it in by the coast. However, that being said, I agree with you that the vorticy in the Central US associated with the Trough was not nearly as defined as it was with the 12z GFS, had it been, I think that it may have had a slightly different outcome than one heading OTS. The 576 dm heights by Greenland were also further south on the 18z GFS than they were on the 12z GFS. The 18z GEFS should definitely be interesting to see, with regard to how they handle the two synoptic features. Had the NF Block formed earlier, the GFS could have taken an ECM like track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 While the GFS continues to be on its OTS track ..the NOGAPS stays the course... as i stated earlier the nogaps being a surpressed model is def an eye opener for my IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS is so stubborn. Not gonna take much to get a phased solution. The non phased ots solution is obviously still on the table if there is not enough energy to pick it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 NOGAPS hrs. 120, 126, 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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