jm1220 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Wow, a lot seems to be depending on this block, and heights NE of this thing preventing an exit east, as the upper low comes in from the west and captures it. This was headed for an escape before it hit the brick wall over NE Canada, and then the upper low swooped in for the kill. I would take westerly or offshore winds here anyday over easterly or onshore winds like the GGEM yesterday showed with a track into NJ, but the effects here would still be horrendous. Eastern New England would get a devastating blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Its incredible how it just hooks back WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Wow, a lot seems to be depending on this block, and heights NE of this thing preventing an exit east, as the upper low comes in from the west and captures it. This was headed for an escape before it hit the brick wall over NE Canada, and then the upper low swooped in for the kill. I would take westerly or offshore winds here anyday over easterly or onshore winds like the GGEM yesterday showed with a track into NJ, but the effects here would still be horrendous. Eastern New England would get a devastating blow. & you have to imagine we would have major damage In the tri state area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Wow, a lot seems to be depending on this block, and heights NE of this thing preventing an exit east, as the upper low comes in from the west and captures it. This was headed for an escape before it hit the brick wall over NE Canada, and then the upper low swooped in for the kill. I would take westerly or offshore winds here anyday over easterly or onshore winds like the GGEM yesterday showed with a track into NJ, but the effects here would still be horrendous. Eastern New England would get a devastating blow. It really looks like very subtle differences are going to make the difference between capture and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 168 N Atlantic Ω Block! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 In all honesty, it seems to make sense. Follows the path of least resistance. It gets wedged between the sharpening trough and atlantic ridge. With a block over the top it seems to get captured by the energy diving into the trough depicted by the euro. Then its game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 168 936mb? Just to compare, Hurricane Andrew's landfall pressure was 922mb. Does anyone know offhand what the 1938 hurricane's landfall pressure was? Have to think this is overdone, but anywhere close to this intensity would be beyond a nightmare scenario for many of us. We're lucky this is still 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just to point something out, some of the modeled wind fields have shown the strongest winds on the NW side as opposed to the right front quadrant, and a rather large wind field. Just because the winds would be more NNW over this area doesn't mean that we wouldn't get very stong winds. This isn't your typical, classical landfalling tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 936mb? Just to compare, Hurricane Andrew's landfall pressure was 922mb. Does anyone know offhand what the 1938 hurricane's landfall pressure was? Have to think this is overdone, but anywhere close to this intensity would be beyond a nightmare scenario for many of us. We're lucky this is still 6 days out. 941mb I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 N Atlantic Ω Block! pre-cursor of the coming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This reminds me a lot of 2/26/10. Remember how the HUGE New Foundland ridge just forced that thing back to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just to point something out, some of the modeled wind fields have shown the strongest winds on the NW side as opposed to the right front quadrant, and a rather large wind field. Just because the winds would be more NNW over this area doesn't mean that we wouldn't get very stong winds. This isn't your typical, classical landfalling tropical cyclone. Yea there are several other factors that add to the wind factor including, but not limited to, the tight pressure gradient and the jet associated with the trough. Regardless, with the euro setup, your going to get winds and substantial winds at a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It really looks like very subtle differences are going to make the difference between capture and OTS. I see a number of similarities between this setup and the 12/26/10 storm, besides it obviously being October and a tropical feature being in play. The massive block then prevented the low from exiting out to sea, slowed it down, and a well-timed phase provided for the wicked storm we have. That block makes me believe the nightmare solution is in play. If it weakens in subsequent runs, the odds of an escape or weaker coastal low feeding back to Sandy make more sense. A slightly quicker phase or slower Sandy means another slam into NJ solution. Nothing off the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The block on the Euro is further south than GFS, GGEM, UKMET at 144hrs. Probably makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That is one incredible Block over the N. Atlantic (575dm) It's so essential to have that, allowing the whole flow to slow down and capture Sandy. The Euro is absolutely incredible and it would be a devastating hit if it happened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 850mb winds while its south of LI at hr 144 are 121kts. Thats the highest we've seen so far with the euro. Once it makes landfall over eastern LI 850mb winds into the metro area are >70kts. Hurricane force gusts for sure with sustained winds >60mph I would presume region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What's the euro got for rainfall estimates for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What's the euro got for rainfall estimates for this storm? 5-6 inches of rain region wide. (from my calculations of sv maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I see a number of similarities between this setup and the 12/26/10 storm, besides it obviously being October and a tropical feature being in play. The massive block then prevented the low from exiting out to sea, slowed it down, and a well-timed phase provided for the wicked storm we have. That block makes me believe the nightmare solution is in play. If it weakens in subsequent runs, the odds of an escape or weaker coastal low feeding back to Sandy make more sense. A slightly quicker phase or slower Sandy means another slam into NJ solution. Nothing off the table at this point. Yeah, the 500 mb composites are close at 120 hrs before the models diverge with track. Some very anticipated model runs over the next several days to say the least. Euro GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This excites me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 new HPC discussion is out and has some pretty strong wording...using blend of euro and its ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Link? new HPC discussion is out and has some pretty strong wording...using blend of euro and its ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Link? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd That's extremely bullish wording for this far out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Even if this doesn't happen, to have it depicted on model guidance for many runs is historic in itself. Underscores the insane potential here, very anomalous pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 "Powerhouse capable of whipping the Atlantic into a frenzy and churning up dangerous tides". Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Even if this doesn't happen, to have it depicted on model guidance for many runs is historic in itself. Underscores the insane potential here, very anomalous pattern. Isotherm according to the euro it looks like sustained winds of 65-70kts. Wonder what the gusts would be? Not only that but this storm in itself is gonna be nothing short of memorable for all in the northeast if it happens as the euro forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Upton Put a HWO out. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 355 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR COASTAL STORM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...HIGH WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. THE STORM MAY VERY WELL JUST MOVE OUT TO SEA...AND HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SINCE SANDY IS STILL IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE STILL AROUND A WEEK AWAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON SANDY...AND MONITOR THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If this even comes close to fruition, I wonder how the media will hype this...as a hurricane or Noreaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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