Roger Smith Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The GFS and GEM now agree that a major storm will hit the east coast, as you know the details are slightly different in each case but if the Euro holds serve then we're looking at a much more probable outcome than the speculative one being discussed earlier. I have to take very strong issue with those who are telling me that the post-tropical nature of the storm (yet to be established, by the way) will push maximum wind speeds down to something like 60 mph. That is absolute rubbish as anyone who has followed 940-950 mb low landfalls in the past will know. However, I have the belief that if the storm does retain hurricane status to 35N and starts to deepen explosively, it will retain hurricane characteristics and a very tight core. The frustration is that I hope this storm does not happen at all so that no opportunity exists to demonstrate who is right or wrong, but if the storm does develop as these models show, then you can guarantee yourself that land stations will record sustained winds over 80 mph and gusts over 120 mph on the northeast side of the track and on the current GEM track that would mean Boston, on the current GFS track more like 60-100 mph in coastal Maine and 50-80 mph from the west in southern New England but as the Euro is king of the castle, I would be more concerned about wind potential in places like central Long Island and southern CT, RI where it could rival the 1938 storm. It can baroclinic all it wants, a 935 mb low will come in with destructive winds. I think, honestly, the thought process here is more like this ... I don't believe the models, the low won't be that deep, so the winds won't be that strong. Fair enough if that's what you mean, but you're telling me that a 935-945 mb low will hit the east coast and winds won't hit 100 mph. I say FAIL to that theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wonder whether Sandy will pull the typical Jamaican two-step and avoid the island. It always seems to happen although the storm does seem to be heading directly for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wonder whether Sandy will pull the typical Jamaican two-step and avoid the island. It always seems to happen although the storm does seem to be heading directly for it. Not this time. The core is barrelling due north. Looks like the eye will pass right over Blue Mountain Peak. Too bad Jamaica doesn't have an online anemometer up there. That's over 7,000 feet and I would expect windspeeds to top 100mph up there this evening. On the other hand, I expect the core to weaken. Even the east facing slopes have over an 1,000 meter abrupt rise in elevation. It will be interesting to see just how much the landform can dissrupt the circulation as it crosses over the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wonder whether Sandy will pull the typical Jamaican two-step and avoid the island. It always seems to happen although the storm does seem to be heading directly for it. Well this is heading due North and not W-WNW like a "cruiser" So Sandy will probably run right over it. Should see some disruption as Sandy will be passing right over the highest mountain on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy has such a massive circulation/fetch its crazy. The core of the storm isn't huge but the overall sprawl is very impressive when zoomed out. There are high cirrus whisping up to the Georgia coast and the mositure plume to the SW is pulling all the way from the Pacific. Crazy! Lots of mositure and lots of energy heading toward the northern jet, if thing actually get's captured and phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Northward churned the strengthening storm Josh said "'Its a boring yawn" "Hurricane", you call it? Please; That is but a sprightly breeze As it moved up through the Stait Pressure falls did not abate Josh said, "At this latitude This storm is crap; why bother, dude?" Soon it perched off Hatteras October did not matter as It deepened, perched atop the Stream And turned into the next Katrin' But Josh remains a stubborn man "Its not near to the Yucatan Or driving west into Belize Maybe it will bend some trees" Now Fire Island's just a dream And Cape Cod turned to Cape Sardine With billions ruined, and hundreds dead "When's my next chase?" Joshua said. :lmao: Harsh. You know me too well. P.S. I want to post this on the iCyclone Facebook page. I'll PM you so I can properly credit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What are the latest obs out of Kingston? Looks fairly close to the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What are the latest obs out of Kingston? Looks fairly close to the core. Winds have shifted to NE at 23 kt with 981 mb falling, so the center looks to pass about 10 n mi to the east of Manley Airport. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What are the latest obs out of Kingston? Looks fairly close to the core. I really wish you would chase this storm. Maybe too late for Cuba (I still think that would be excellent chase grounds), but certainly not too late for what's going to happen on the east coast. Sure it's not going to be a super hawt inner core caribbean cruiser... but this is appearing more and more like a very unique storm on all points. I mean it's bringing tropical weenies AND snow weenies together. That in and of itself is a major accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 To all in this thread... all model discussion will not be automatically moved to the other thread on that specific discussion. This thread is meant to live or short term observations and forecasts of Hurricane Sandy. Anything beyond several days should go in the model/medium range forecasting thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Winds have shifted to NE at 23 kt with 981 mb falling, so the center looks to pass about 10 n mi to the east of Manley Airport. http://weather.noaa....rrent/MKJP.html Thanks, snowflake. The obs are weird. Why did those peak gusts happen so early, when the center was so far away. Me confused. I really wish you would chase this storm. Maybe too late for Cuba (I still think that would be excellent chase grounds), but certainly not too late for what's going to happen on the east coast. Sure it's not going to be a super hawt inner core caribbean cruiser... but this is appearing more and more like a very unique storm on all points. I mean it's bringing tropical weenies AND snow weenies together. That in and of itself is a major accomplishment. If it would be what some of the models are showing, I would certainly consider it, just for the bizarro factor. But I just feel in my heart that the bullish models are really overplaying it. I'm not a forecaster, but I do know the climo, and I'm not aware of other analogous cyclones having anywhere near that kind of impact. (I no longer consider Hazel a good analogy because that thing was a Cat 4 shooting N really fast as it started to transition-- it had a lot more juice to start out with and it was haulin' azz.) I could be wrong, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Thanks, snowflake. The obs are weird. Why did those peak gusts happen so early, when the center was so far away. Me confused. If it would be what some of the models are showing, I would certainly consider it, just for the bizarro factor. But I just feel in my heart that the bullish models are really overplaying it. I'm not a forecaster, but I do know the climo, and I'm not aware of other analogous cyclones having anywhere near that kind of impact. (I no longer consider Hazel a good analogy because that thing was a Cat 4 shooting N really fast as it started to transition-- it had a lot more juice to start out with and it was haulin' azz.) I could be wrong, but... I think you are wrong. Had more juice to start out with? Not sure what you are saying, but Hazel did not reach peak intensity (at least according to the records I see) until approaching U.S. landfall. Hazel was a cat 2 for Haiti, similar to Sandy for Jamaica /Cuba. I am not saying Sandy is going to intensify into a major post-Cuba, ssts are a little lower now than a week or two ago, too. But it's a little early to guess Sandys intensity off the Carolinas/SE coast at this point, when we don't even have a concrete track on the table yet. Also SSTs are at or mostly above normal, which helps a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think you are wrong. Had more juice to start out with? Not sure what you are saying, but Hazel did not reach peak intensity (at least according to the records I see) until approaching U.S. landfall. Hazel was a cat 2 for Haiti, similar to Sandy for Jamaica /Cuba. I am not saying Sandy is going to intensify into a major post-Cuba, ssts are a little lower now than a week or two ago, too. But it's a little early to guess Sandys intensity off the Carolinas/SE coast at this point, when we don't even have a concrete track on the table yet. Also SSTs are at or mostly above normal, which helps a little. It's not going to become a Cat 4. Definitely not. So it won't have as much juice to start with. People are really overplaying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Thanks, snowflake. The obs are weird. Why did those peak gusts happen so early, when the center was so far away. Me confused. From the reports from recon, the eye was very large (diameter of 48 miles) so its entirely possible that the obs were sampling the eyewall. A second look at the obs though suggest that that really high wind report (+100mph) was likely an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 When does the next recon mission take off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 From the reports from recon, the eye was very large (diameter of 48 miles) so its entirely possible that the obs were sampling the eyewall. Wow-- that is large for down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow-- that is large for down there. Sometimes satellite imagery itself can be very misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The mountains of eastern Jamaica may actually help increase low-level vorticity and may help the large center tighten further...we have seen similar trends in other TCs (Fay 2008) due to friction over land. Due to the vorticity advection and orographic lift, more convection may form on the left side and cause a NNW or NW jog as the center moves inland and begins to interact with the trough over Cuba. So I do not believe that Sandy will weaken below 60 kt by the time it leaves the north coast of Jamaica...if, indeed, it weakens below hurricane intensity at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sometimes satellite imagery itself can be very misleading. Wow-- yeah! I hadn't looked at the MW imagery and I was assuming this had a pinhole eye. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 With the high SST's this storm looks like it could pick up steam until it gets north of the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow-- that is large for down there. Having that large eyewall, plus the decent forward motion and baroclinic enhancement, make me think Sandy could very well be a hurricane in the Bahamas, a bit stronger than NHC's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Having that large eyewall, plus the decent forward motion and baroclinic enhancement, make me think Sandy could very well be a hurricane in the Bahamas, a bit stronger than NHC's forecast. Agreed-- it could be a 'cane in the Bahamas. But the motion isn't that fast-- maybe 12 kt-- and the NHC doesn't show a lot of acceleration. Re: impacts further N, I would see more potential in this if it was going to be blasting N. Forward speed is what killed Irene and kept it from being a hurricane in the Northeast-- it didn't accelerate. I know that the transition to extratropical might give it a boost, but that factor isn't magic-- it doesn't turn a so-so 'cane into a mega-whopper storm of the century. (This second paragraph is not really addressed to you, Tony-- just a general comment.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The mountains of eastern Jamaica may actually help increase low-level vorticity and may help the large center tighten further...we have seen similar trends in other TCs (Fay 2008) due to friction over land. Due to the vorticity advection and orographic lift, more convection may form on the left side and cause a NNW or NW jog as the center moves inland and begins to interact with the trough over Cuba. So I do not believe that Sandy will weaken below 60 kt by the time it leaves the north coast of Jamaica...if, indeed, it weakens below hurricane intensity at all. Thats quite a change from your forecast yesterday that didn't have Sandy making it to hurricane intensity at all Certainly an increasingly impressive visible satellite image. Enhanced IR also showing the eye popping out from the cirrus canopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Jamaican radar appears to be down. http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage2.asp Does anyone have a link to a working Kingston radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 320 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 ...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 76.7W ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH... 130 KM/H. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 i'm hearing we're going to 6hr radiosonde observations now, according to the twitter feed from WG. is that true, and if so, what domain are they increasing the launches? nationwide or just east of the rockies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 i'm hearing we're going to 6hr radiosonde observations now, according to the twitter feed from WG. is that true, and if so, what domain are they increasing the launches? nationwide or just east of the rockies? Nationwide according to the NCEP statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 i'm hearing we're going to 6hr radiosonde observations now, according to the twitter feed from WG. is that true, and if so, what domain are they increasing the launches? nationwide or just east of the rockies? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=adm&node=kwno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Jamaican radar appears to be down. http://www.metservic.../radarpage2.asp Does anyone have a link to a working Kingston radar? I've looked for years whenever something has approached. Nothing. That being said, there is a FAA radar down in Guantanamo Bay but it seems that's down too. http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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