Hurricane Sandy - LIVE - Meteorological Discussion

[Ground Scouring]

12Z operational GFS and a few other models, notably the TVCE, have shifted up to 25 n mi or so east through 36 hours...given the recent NNE movement of the center over the past few hours, TS Warnings seem less warranted in SE FL. The main, brief NNW movement seems likely to occur just after this time frame, followed by a parabolic curve (NE-N-NNW) off the NC coast.

[Srain]

[Mallow]

12Z operational GFS and a few other models, notably the TVCE, have shifted up to 25 n mi or so east through 36 hours...given the recent NNE movement of the center over the past few hours, TS Warnings seem less warranted in SE FL. The main, brief NNW movement seems likely to occur just after this time frame, followed by a parabolic curve (NE-N-NNW) off the NC coast.

Huh?

[RaleighWx]

For those interested, I just wrote a new discussion. FOr those not interested my apologies!

http://www.examiner.com/article/sandy-potentially-targets-northeast-us

[Ground Scouring]

Huh?

The 00Z operational GFS showed Sandy passing just west of Exuma, while the 12Z run seems a good four-tenths of a degree farther east, over central Exuma.

00Z runs

versus

12Z runs

Of course, my eyesight could be incorrect...or the change may be difficult to detect on the first chart.

[Kmlwx]

The 00Z operational GFS showed Sandy passing just west of Exuma, while the 12Z run seems a good four-tenths of a degree farther east, over central Exuma.

00Z runs

versus

12Z runs

Of course, my eyesight could be incorrect...or the change may be difficult to detect on the first chart.

The 12z op GFS has not run yet

[wxmeddler]

85 kt FL winds in the SE Quad...

[Ground Scouring]

The 12z op GFS has not run yet

Pardon my ignorance, but is it not the AVNI? (Feel free, anyone, to start a banter thread if this commentary is trivial.)

[Mallow]

The 00Z operational GFS showed Sandy passing just west of Exuma, while the 12Z run seems a good four-tenths of a degree farther east, over central Exuma.

00Z runs

versus

12Z runs

Of course, my eyesight could be incorrect...or the change may be difficult to detect on the first chart.

12z GFS isn't out yet. I believe those are tropical models initialized at 12z, but from 06z model data.

[Kmlwx]

Pardon my ignorance, but is it not the AVNI? (Feel free, anyone, to start a banter thread if this commentary is trivial.)

The 12z GFS does not start until like after 11 this time of year.

AVN is because it's probably based on the GFS model. But it is not the GFS operational.

[WxTurtle]

Pardon my ignorance, but is it not the AVNI? (Feel free, anyone, to start a banter thread if this commentary is trivial.)

12z GFS isn't out yet. I believe those are tropical models initialized at 12z, but from 06z model data.

The 12z GFS does not start until like after 11 this time of year.

AVN is because it's probably based on the GFS model. But it is not the GFS operational.

Anything with an "I" after it in the ATCF data is the previous cycle's run interpolated to the current time.

So AVNI is the 06Z GFS with the initial data point interpolated it to it's +6 forecast position (12Z).

[jconsor]

Disagree. The windfield will likely expand substantially on the west side as Sandy approaches the Bahamas and interacts with the upper low to its SW. Fujiwhara interaction with that upper low will also likely force Sandy to move NW for about 24 hours while near the N. Bahamas.

Because of the timing of the likely NW turn, areas from W. Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral appear to be at greatest risk for TS force winds. Extreme SE FL is at less risk.

12Z operational GFS and a few other models, notably the TVCE, have shifted up to 25 n mi or so east through 36 hours...given the recent NNE movement of the center over the past few hours, TS Warnings seem less warranted in SE FL. The main, brief NNW movement seems likely to occur just after this time frame, followed by a parabolic curve (NE-N-NNW) off the NC coast.

[icebreaker5221]

12Z operational GFS and a few other models, notably the TVCE, have shifted up to 25 n mi or so east through 36 hours...given the recent NNE movement of the center over the past few hours, TS Warnings seem less warranted in SE FL. The main, brief NNW movement seems likely to occur just after this time frame, followed by a parabolic curve (NE-N-NNW) off the NC coast.

12Z GFS isn't out yet. 12Z GFSI (AVNI) is just the 6Z GFS forecast track interpolated to start at the 12Z position.

Seems like an east of forecast track is currently underway, but several ECMWF ensemble members have Sandy doing a small loop east of FL at a 'col point', which could take it back west. Too early to drop the watches imo.

[Ground Scouring]

NHC: 70 kt at 15Z = hurricane now it is!

[dan11295]

Near term weakening from Jamaica looks to not be too severe with current track. Highest land on the island is near eastern tip though. Cuba will disrupt it more obviously. Short term land disruption may not matter much long term in the scheme of things, though.

[Hurriplane]

Cone shifts east off the coast of FL.

Although the interaction with the upper low should shift it back west later during the day.

[Ground Scouring]

Disagree. The windfield will likely expand substantially on the west side as Sandy approaches the Bahamas and interacts with the upper low to its SW. Fujiwhara interaction with that upper low will also likely force Sandy to move NW for about 24 hours while near the N. Bahamas.

Because of the timing of the likely NW turn, areas from W. Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral appear to be at greatest risk for TS force winds. Extreme SE FL is at less risk.

By the way, in my post, by SE FL, I was referring to the area between Jupiter and Miami...so we are really on the same page re: the likelihood of TS winds. I think the SE FL watch should be dropped S of Deerfield Beach (if not Jupiter) but maintained farther N along the east coast of the state.

[Srain]

URNT12 KNHC 241514

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012

A. 24/14:50:40Z

B. 17 deg 05 min N

076 deg 47 min W

C. 700 mb 2889 m

D. 65 kt

E. 111 deg 24 nm

F. 184 deg 86 kt

G. 115 deg 30 nm

H. 976 mb

I. 9 C / 3034 m

J. 16 C / 3047 m

K. 3 C / NA

L. Closed

M. C48

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm

P. AF308 0418A SANDY OB 18

MAX FL WIND 86 KT SE QUAD 14:41:30Z

[billgwx]

Northward churned the strengthening storm

Josh said "'Its a boring yawn"

"Hurricane", you call it? Please;

That is but a sprightly breeze

As it moved up through the Stait

Pressure falls did not abate

Josh said, "At this latitude

This storm is crap; why bother, dude?"

Soon it perched off Hatteras

October did not matter as

It deepened, perched atop the Stream

And turned into the next Katrin'

But Josh remains a stubborn man

"Its not near to the Yucatan

Or driving west into Belize

Maybe it will bend some trees"

Now Fire Island's just a dream

And Cape Cod turned to Cape Sardine

With billions ruined, and hundreds dead

"When's my next chase?" Joshua said.

Post of the year!

[David Reimer]

153200 1658N 07712W 6961 03015 9899 +083 +073 320052 055 060 028 00

153230 1659N 07711W 6979 02984 9906 +070 +069 321058 060 064 027 00

153300 1700N 07709W 6958 03008 9896 +072 +072 324056 061 064 026 00

153330 1702N 07708W 6963 02992 9884 +070 +070 336057 059 064 012 01

153400 1703N 07707W 6972 02969 9865 +083 +081 347056 059 065 010 00

153430 1704N 07706W 6968 02968 9846 +091 +084 349049 054 064 010 00

153500 1704N 07704W 6966 02959 9826 +097 +086 343044 051 065 010 00

153530 1705N 07703W 6968 02953 9798 +117 +088 330041 043 062 008 00

153600 1706N 07701W 6960 02953 9787 +120 +088 323037 040 058 007 00

153630 1707N 07659W 6970 02938 9768 +134 +078 324026 033 056 005 00

153700 1708N 07658W 6958 02946 9751 +142 +072 330018 021 052 004 00

153730 1709N 07656W 6968 02930 9741 +149 +065 317012 017 036 002 00

153800 1710N 07655W 6966 02930 9730 +157 +057 316008 009 026 002 00

153830 1711N 07654W 6967 02927 9728 +160 +036 341008 009 026 001 03

153900 1712N 07652W 6964 02930 9720 +164 +039 344010 011 018 001 00

153930 1713N 07650W 6966 02923 9719 +161 +048 301009 010 019 002 03

154000 1714N 07648W 6966 02917 9713 +160 +060 263010 011 021 003 00

154030 1715N 07647W 6966 02917 9723 +148 +074 181005 009 031 005 00

154100 1717N 07647W 6968 02912 9737 +135 +079 139018 023 031 002 03

154130 1719N 07646W 6962 02923 9749 +126 +079 139030 032 038 004 00

[Bryan Wood]

Northward churned the strengthening storm

Josh said "'Its a boring yawn"

"Hurricane", you call it? Please;

That is but a sprightly breeze

As it moved up through the Stait

Pressure falls did not abate

Josh said, "At this latitude

This storm is crap; why bother, dude?"

Soon it perched off Hatteras

October did not matter as

It deepened, perched atop the Stream

And turned into the next Katrin'

But Josh remains a stubborn man

"Its not near to the Yucatan

Or driving west into Belize

Maybe it will bend some trees"

Now Fire Island's just a dream

And Cape Cod turned to Cape Sardine

With billions ruined, and hundreds dead

"When's my next chase?" Joshua said.

Best post in the history of this forum.

[Derecho!]

You don't see an intensifying hurricane with a direct hit on a city of almost 1 million people every day. Seems to be a bit forgotten in all of this.

[wolfman23601]

You don't see an intensifying hurricane with a direct hit on a city of almost 1 million people every day. Seems to be a bit forgotten in all of this.

Exactly why it is unlikely to happen. Don't get me wrong, it may well take a path that hooks into SNE or the mid-Atlantic, but I am not convinced it will be an "intensifying hurricane". Flooding should be a concern.

[Scuddz]

Exactly why it is unlikely to happen. Don't get me wrong, it may well take a path that hooks into SNE or the mid-Atlantic, but I am not convinced it will be an "intensifying hurricane". Flooding should be a concern.

Um, Kingston?

[billgwx]

Exactly why it is unlikely to happen. Don't get me wrong, it may well take a path that hooks into SNE or the mid-Atlantic, but I am not convinced it will be an "intensifying hurricane". Flooding should be a concern.

I would be concerned it becomes an intensifying warm core seclusion, which could be just as nasty. Some think that is what really happened with a certain late September storm 74 years ago in Long Island/New England.

[Derecho!]

Um, Kingston?

Yep, I was talking about Kingston, Jamaica.

That original reply you responded to basically proved my point though - Jamaica has been completely forgotten.

[andyhb]

Exactly why it is unlikely to happen. Don't get me wrong, it may well take a path that hooks into SNE or the mid-Atlantic, but I am not convinced it will be an "intensifying hurricane". Flooding should be a concern.

He is talking about Kingston, Jamaica, I believe.

[phil882]

Its a shame recon is leaving when Sandy is the middle of a rapid intensification episode. It will probably be unknown how strong Sandy will get before landfall in Jamaica and ultimately Cuba tomorrow. A drop of ~8 mb in three hours is nothing to slouch at.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Its a shame recon is leaving when Sandy is the middle of a rapid intensification episode. It will probably be unknown how strong Sandy will get before landfall in Jamaica and ultimately Cuba tomorrow. A drop of ~10 mb in three hours in nothing to slouch at.

I'm sure recon will be in before Sandy makes landfall in Cuba. From that, we might be able to interpolate roughly what strength Sandy was near Jamaica.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Are you people mentally challenged? They have ANEMOMETERS in Jamaica, you know. I hate the country but it's not like no-one lives there.

It is unlikely that sufficient meteorological observations will be captured in the appropriate parts of the storm due to where Sandy will make landfall. Kingston will be on the west side of the system.