Amped Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's undergoing SWrly shear I don't care if it wasn't analyzed on obs, It's clear as day on the WV loop. So much for perfect conditions. Still deepening slowly though with the good TCHP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's undergoing SWrly shear I don't care if it wasn't analyzed on obs, It's clear as day on the WV loop. So much for perfect conditions. Still deepening slowly though with the good TCHP Yeah, surface convergence is lumped on the right ride of the system. The lack of a defined NW quad is what will hold this back for at least another twelve hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Much better defined low level center than the afternoon mission found. I'll wait for the VDM to see if the centers are still displaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 For those who care... 19L has been upgraded to Tony out in the middle of the Atlantic. Three consecutive years with 19 storms. Pretty interesting. In other news.... Looks like we have a stacked system with a developing eye according to the VDM 00 URNT12 KNHC 240035 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 24/00:09:40Z B. 14 deg 44 min N 077 deg 10 min W C. 850 mb 1339 m D. 39 kt E. 305 deg 29 nm F. 065 deg 40 kt G. 312 deg 41 nm H. 991 mb I. 16 C / 1519 m J. 20 C / 1519 m K. NA / NA L. Ragged Eye M. C32 N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 4 nm P. AF302 0318A SANDY OB 10 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 57 KT SE QUAD 00:25:00Z Additoinal spiral band 20nm dia in eye ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Up to 50 knots per the ATCF AL, 18, 2012102400, , BEST, 0, 148N, 773W, 50, 991 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 For those who care... 19L has been upgraded to Tony out in the middle of the Atlantic. Three consecutive years with 19 storms. Pretty interesting. In other news.... Looks like we have a stacked system with a developing eye according to the VDM 00 URNT12 KNHC 240035 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 24/00:09:40Z B. 14 deg 44 min N 077 deg 10 min W C. 850 mb 1339 m D. 39 kt E. 305 deg 29 nm F. 065 deg 40 kt G. 312 deg 41 nm H. 991 mb I. 16 C / 1519 m J. 20 C / 1519 m K. NA / NA L. Ragged Eye M. C32 N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 4 nm P. AF302 0318A SANDY OB 10 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 57 KT SE QUAD 00:25:00Z Additoinal spiral band 20nm dia in eye ; Sorry for the off topic post, but pretty impressive. Even more impressive? No major land falling 'cane in what? 7 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 November 1950 FTW! Sometimes I wonder how NYC survived November 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 240210 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 24/02:02:40Z B. 15 deg 02 min N 077 deg 12 min W C. 850 mb 1330 m D. 48 kt E. 055 deg 36 nm F. 143 deg 59 kt G. 054 deg 40 nm H. 989 mb I. 15 C / 1525 m J. 20 C / 1528 m K. 13 C / NA L. OPEN SW M. C26 N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 4 nm P. AF302 0318A SANDY OB 15 MAX FL WIND 65 KT SE QUAD 00:35:00Z Ragged Eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 989mb on latest center drop; down 1 mb/hr for last couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Pressures down to 989 Looks to be winding up finally with a decent core forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If the core can get going overnight RI would seem more likely than usual although that's a big if. It's certainly improving, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Amatueur question, here instead of many regional threads- since apparently some of the players are still over the somewhat data sparse Pacific, would it be a good idea to task a drone or G-IV for a Pacific data mission? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Cone shifted a tad east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Amatueur question, here instead of many regional threads- since apparently some of the players are still over the somewhat data sparse Pacific, would it be a good idea to task a drone or G-IV for a Pacific data mission? I think it would be a little late at this point since we'll have ROAB coverage soon. If they could have tasked a mission about a day ago, that would have been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 240315 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 24/03:07:10Z B. 15 deg 12 min N 077 deg 08 min W C. 850 mb 1331 m D. 60 kt E. 133 deg 58 nm F. 201 deg 57 kt G. 133 deg 37 nm H. 989 mb I. 16 C / 1528 m J. 20 C / 1526 m K. 15 C / NA L. Open SW M. C26 N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 4 nm P. AF302 0318A SANDY OB 19 MAX FL WIND 68 KT SE QUAD 02:44:30Z ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Back to the long range prospects, the GFS OP teases with slower movement at first, but eventually moves it OTS, at least thru 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS starts further west, then akes a sharp right out to sea. 00z NOGAPS is a ~955mb hit for SNE fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The NOGAPS hits the DelMarVa/NJ... Satellite presentation beginning to improve dramatically, if we're going to see RI it should begin in an hour or two I think. Extremely cold cloud tops all over & the CDO becoming much better defined. I would guess this is about a 75 MPH storm at the moment. http://www.ssd.noaa....h-avn-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It looks pretty good-- like that core that's developing, and the outflow is nice-- and if it were moving WNW toward Belize I'd be freaking out over it. But it's moving N, and you know that thing is gonna look fugly once it leaves the Caribbean. (Well... Icep*ssies will think it looks pretty, perhaps-- but any self-respectin' Tropical Dude won't dig it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It looks pretty good-- like that core that's developing, and the outflow is nice-- and if it were moving WNW toward Belize I'd be freaking out over it. But it's moving N, and you know that thing is gonna look fugly once it leaves the Caribbean. (Well... Icep*ssies will think it looks pretty, perhaps-- but any self-respectin' Tropical Dude won't dig it.) I sense anger in your tone haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I sense anger in your tone haha. Me? Come now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Now 55 kt-- and still a good 160 mi S of Jamaica. Looks like it's going to reach there as a decent 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Should've gone, then you could have stuck it to the NE folks when it recurves out to sea later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Based on the current structure of the storm it would appear that rapid intensification is now beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
left_gulley Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow, no comments on the 00z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Based on the current structure of the storm it would appear that rapid intensification is now beginning. Wouldn't be surprised if you're right. P.S. That's some deep convection. Haven't seen dark greys like that all season-- forgot what that looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow, no comments on the 00z Euro? There's so many threads about Sandy that I just don't know where to discuss it any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Heh 933 on the Euro as it approaches the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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