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Hurricane Sandy - LIVE - Meteorological Discussion


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Winds gusting to 66 mph at JFK airport in New York City. Serious winds for an urban area.

JFK is well removed from the highly urbanized areas. It;s built into a low-lying coastal marsh, so it can be easy for high wind gusts to mix down.

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National Weather Service Mount Holly, New Jersey: "Hurricane Sandy will strike our region directly. Options for it to miss us have run out. This is our worst case scenario. We are now completing our third high tide cycle with Hurricane Sandy. This high tide cycle was very destructive with major to record coastal flooding occurring. The barrier islands will be cut off from the mainland. Breaches in the barrier islands will likely occur during this evening’s high tide, as the center of Sandy approaches."

http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf

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SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...38.3N 73.1W

ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY

ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

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National Weather Service Mount Holly, New Jersey: "Hurricane Sandy will strike our region directly. Options for it to miss us have run out. This is our worst case scenario. We are now completing our third high tide cycle with Hurricane Sandy. This high tide cycle was very destructive with major to record coastal flooding occurring. The barrier islands will be cut off from the mainland. Breaches in the barrier islands will likely occur during this evening’s high tide, as the center of Sandy approaches."

http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf

Makes sense, they give a good reasonable forecast of the situation.

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But the system would be inland then and the winds would be weaker as the system moves farther away, so the ultimate surge might still be a few feet lower than forecast. I am concerned that people who survive with flood damage will absolutely refuse to evacuate in a real 1938- or 1944-style event because the lack of total destruction did not match the official, supposed “hype.” Unfortunately, human nature is what it is.

It's not going to make much difference. You cannot possibly use a typical hurricane scenario to theorize what's going to happen here. A foot or two difference? Maybe, but I think that's probably even a stretch. Sandy is already a slight be stronger than originally anticipated, so my guess is it becomes a wash.

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So from the looks of it, this storms booking towards cape may point. Any chance it could continue its swing around to the west or will it keep moving towards ACY? Sitting here in union county, we're not seeing that strong of wind or rain so far.

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Islip, NY observer is bailing:

KISP 291856Z 05032G42KT 1SM R06/4500VP6000FT RA BR OVC012 16/15 A2873 AO2 PK WND 03056/1815 PRESFR SLP728 EVACUATING DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY. LAST AUGMENTED OBSERVATION UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. P0010

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It is interesting to observe the radar trends with Sandy this afternoon. One still gets the impression that this is a mainly tropical entity that is making landfall. Sandy is more convectively active than Irene was when it was making landfall, and the FL winds and SMFR continue to support a 70-80 knot system. Despite Sandy maintaining its strength and tropical signature, the storm has rapidly accelerated and will now be making landfall before high tide, which might mitigate the surge impacts somewhat for New York City. Still though, this will likely be an historic impact both surge and wind wise across the region, and if Sandy maintains tropical characteristics, it would be the first landfalling Hurricane in october in New Jersey.

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There are tale-tale signs that extra-tropical transition is finally in progress... the upper level component associated with the amplifying trough is starting to re-organize to the SE of the llc associated with Sandy. This will hasen the advection of cold low-level air into the circulation and start to weaken the warm core associated with Sandy. In the short term it has resulted in a rapid acceleration in the low level circulation associated with Sandy and its unexpected more westward component of motion today.

210m3v5.png

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