Superstorm93 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 dropsonde 100 mph right above the surface! unavailable data at surface (963 mb), but found 86 kts at 962 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Height of the last reported wind: 12 geopotential meters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 dropsonde 100 mph right above the surface! unavailable data at surface (963 mb), but found 86 kts at 962 mb. SFMR observations in the same region were in the 65-75 knot range... it will be interesting to see if they trust the SFMR over the Dropsonde data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wow. That might be enough for an update to Cat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 SFMR observations in the same region were in the 65-75 knot range... it will be interesting to see if they trust the SFMR over the Dropsonde data. aren't dropsondes more reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 aren't dropsondes more reliable? Yes, but might not be representative of the circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wow. That might be enough for an update to Cat 2 We'll see what they decide to do... its continues to be fascinating that these highest winds are occurring in a region of slantwise convection, in that the convective towers are slanted from NE at the surface to SW aloft. This is resulting is relatively low flight level winds over some of these higher surface wind reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 We'll see what they decide to do... its continues to be fascinating that these highest winds are occurring in a region of slantwise convection, in that the convective towers are slanted from NE at the surface to SW aloft. This is resulting is relatively low flight level winds over some of these higher surface wind reports. Lots of theses and dissertations will come out of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 URNT12 KNHC 291535 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 29/15:02:10Z B. 37 deg 39 min N 071 deg 50 min W C. 700 mb 2561 m D. 47 kt E. 092 deg 19 nm F. 188 deg 56 kt G. 092 deg 19 nm H. 946 mb I. 14 C / 3049 m J. 15 C / 3049 m K. 12 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 134 / 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF302 2318A SANDY OB 33 MAX FL WIND 94 KT SE QUAD 10:14:00Z MAX FL TEMP 17 C 093 / 14 NM FROM FL CNTR ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yes, but might not be representative of the circulation That southwest quadrant is quite fascinating with the intense low-level jet trapped below an 850mb inversion. Also, the more elevated jet (700mb) appears to be wrapping to the north side of the system, which has been well forecast by the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Lots of theses and dissertations will come out of this storm No doubt! The 946 hPa dropsonde observation is likely high as well as it splashed down with 47 knot winds. It also appears the flight level center is becoming displaced west of the surface center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That southwest quadrant is quite fascinating with the intense low-level jet trapped below an 850mb inversion. Also, the more elevated jet (700mb) appears to be wrapping to the north side of the system, which has been well forecast by the guidance. so do we extrapolate that deleware will get pluverized by 100 mph gusts for 2-3 hours ( if landfall in and around AC) later this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That southwest quadrant is quite fascinating with the intense low-level jet trapped below an 850mb inversion. Also, the more elevated jet (700mb) appears to be wrapping to the north side of the system, which has been well forecast by the guidance. I asked this question recently on the NYC forum, but got no answers (busy thread, though, so no surprise) - Any pros care to comment on the likelihood of the wind and/or rain fields, especially near the center (i.e., near those of us in Central/North Jersey and the NYC Metro area), becoming more symmetrical? Would be interesting to miss both the highest winds and the greatest rains to the north of Sandy's track. See the quote, below from the latest NHC discussion. Thanks, in advance. "AT THE MOMENT... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 aren't dropsondes more reliable? There are times when NHC doesn't trust the dropsonde winds because they interpret the values as gusts rather than a true sustained wind. However, given the previous high SFMR values, this particular observation could be legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wow. That might be enough for an update to Cat 2 I'm just shocked at how decent-looking it is on the IR imagery. I can't make sense of it-- that it's the end of October and this storm is keeping a solid blob of convection over the center this high up. Even though the highest winds aren't in that core convection, it's still a big WTF. Nothing like Irene... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 LWX in their own HLS (issuing them in SWS format every 6 hrs or earlier if conditions warrant) stating DCA and BWI could see hurricane force wind gusts to 80 mph later this evening and into the overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 URNT12 KNHC 291554 CCA VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 29/15:02:10Z B. 37 deg 39 min N 071 deg 50 min W C. 700 mb 2561 m D. 47 kt E. 092 deg 19 nm F. 188 deg 56 kt G. 092 deg 19 nm H. 946 mb I. 14 C / 3049 m J. 15 C / 3049 m K. 12 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 134 / 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF302 2318A SANDY OB 33 CCA MAX FL WIND 94 KT SE QUAD 10:14:00Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 63 KT SW QUAD 15:40:00Z MAX FL TEMP 17 C 093 / 14 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Will we have any additional recon missions this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 noon winds black sustained/red (below) gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Will we have any additional recon missions this afternoon? A new recon is already on it's way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 They are using a loader and a dump truck to evacuate people in Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy moving in faster than expected? Will this help keep flood levels down not coinciding with high tide in the region (8-9pm)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 They are using a loader and a dump truck to evacuate people in Atlantic City. Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 noon winds black sustained/red (below) gusts Cool. Is this kt or mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like storm surge is beginning to over-power natural tides. Water steady or rising despite the fact that we're well past high tide now. Lindenhurst, NY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjenkins Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Source? Scanner via Atlantic County Fire/EMS. Also reports of state police water rescue teams being deployed to the area for activation within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Source? Police radio. http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Just to get an idea what kind of event we're dealing with here... PW +5.15 sigma, and MSLP -9.19 sigma! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.