yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 06:00Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308) Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012 Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 22 Observation Number: 23 A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 5:08:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 34°59'N 70°38'W (34.9833N 70.6333W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 278 miles (447 km) to the E (94°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,646m (8,681ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the ENE (75°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 54kts (From the SE at ~ 62.1mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) in the south quadrant at 1:03:30Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the southwest quadrant at 5:46:30Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SSW (196°) from the flight level center Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... MAX OUTBOUND SFC SFMR WIND 78KTS AT 05:36:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Circular eye, open SW this time.. was Open SE last VDM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 You really get a sense of the slantwise convection that is developing in the SW quadrant of the system. Note how as the recon plane continues to move southwest, its now picking up on some of the higher winds that we already observed with SFMR and a dropsonde further to the NE. So the deeper convection in this quadrant of the storm is oriented in the vertical from NE at the surface to SW as you increase aloft, partially due to the upper level flow helping to create a "slant" rather than a vertically upright convective tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think that's worth an NHC update statement to increase the max winds to 90 mph, especially since the advisory was only 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like they are going with 70kt AL, 18, 2012102906, , BEST, 0, 352N, 705W, 70, 950, HU, 34, NEQ, 420, 330, 360, 270, 1004, 500, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SANDY, D, AL, 18, 2012102906, , BEST, 0, 352N, 705W, 70, 950, HU, 50, NEQ, 150, 150, 200, 150, 1004, 500, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SANDY, D, AL, 18, 2012102906, , BEST, 0, 352N, 705W, 70, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 150, 0, 1004, 500, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SANDY, D, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I will forget to post this at the time, but note while you have a moment, full moon is timed for 1951z ... that from data in the Jean Meeus astronomical tables ... and the moon is close to apogee (there's one good thing anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 New recon plane, near 79kt SFMR readings still there 075600 3425N 07209W 6967 02823 9719 +060 +060 278053 059 061 000 01 075630 3426N 07207W 6966 02825 9708 +070 +070 276047 049 060 001 01 075700 3427N 07205W 6967 02819 9702 +070 +070 270042 046 059 004 01 075730 3429N 07204W 6966 02821 9700 +080 +080 263043 044 063 005 01 075800 3430N 07202W 6970 02816 9696 +080 +080 262041 044 062 004 01 075830 3432N 07200W 6970 02815 9691 +080 +080 263039 040 063 005 01 075900 3433N 07158W 6970 02814 9686 +080 +080 264035 036 067 004 01 075930 3435N 07157W 6965 02816 //// +072 //// 270034 036 064 005 01 080000 3436N 07155W 6967 02812 9686 +080 +080 274035 036 065 004 01 080030 3438N 07153W 6969 02808 9674 +080 +080 269030 035 066 004 05 080100 3439N 07152W 6969 02805 9668 +090 +090 268027 031 068 001 05 080130 3440N 07150W 6966 02808 9666 +090 +090 264027 028 071 000 01 080200 3442N 07149W 6967 02803 9669 +080 +080 268030 031 071 006 01 080230 3443N 07147W 6967 02802 //// +070 //// 266027 030 079 009 01 080300 3444N 07145W 6970 02802 //// +071 //// 267029 030 079 010 01 080330 3446N 07144W 6967 02800 //// +072 //// 278034 036 071 007 01 080400 3447N 07142W 6969 02795 //// +071 //// 287032 033 074 006 01 080430 3449N 07140W 6959 02806 //// +080 //// 295029 031 074 004 01 080500 3450N 07139W 6967 02792 9653 +090 +090 291029 033 073 002 01 080530 3451N 07137W 6967 02793 9644 +098 +090 290036 037 073 001 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 06Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 945.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Drop shows the SFMR is representative of the surface. Released at 7:59z, a few minutes before it got to the highest SFMR values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 LOCATION...35.9N 70.5W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 SANDY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH AN EYE OCCASIONALLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SFMR MEASUREMENTS...FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 KT. SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING...AND THE SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS TIME...SOME MORE STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR INTENSIFICATION LATER TODAY SHOULD BE BAROCLINIC FORCING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS PREDICTION AS THAT MODEL SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL. SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT A WELL-MARKED WARM AND COLD FRONT LIE NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER OF SANDY. AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THESE FRONTS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...AND FLOODING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL. CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR ABOUT 360/13...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA...SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD RESULT IN THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 35.9N 70.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 37.8N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 39.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1800Z 40.0N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0600Z 44.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0600Z 45.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0600Z 46.5N 70.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Upton, NWS Discussion OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A SECOND BAND OF FCST 925 MB WINDS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON THE SE FLANK OF THE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD ROTATE UP INTO THE CWA DURING AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL THIS EVENING...INITIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...THEN TRANSLATING WESTWARD INTO NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE STORM AS CAA BEGINS JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT AS LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES...SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE WINDS COULD GUST 80 TO PERHAPS 90 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Upton, NWS Discussion OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A SECOND BAND OF FCST 925 MB WINDS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON THE SE FLANK OF THE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD ROTATE UP INTO THE CWA DURING AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL THIS EVENING...INITIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...THEN TRANSLATING WESTWARD INTO NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE STORM AS CAA BEGINS JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT AS LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES...SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE WINDS COULD GUST 80 TO PERHAPS 90 MPH. You can see that potential well in the HRRR wind gust fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Does anyone else feel as though this has a strong possibility of increasing to a 95-100mph hurricane? It hasn't fully crossed the gulf stream yet and still has around 80F degree waters ahead with little to no shear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Does anyone else feel as though this has a strong possibility of increasing to a 95-100mph hurricane? It hasn't fully crossed the gulf stream yet and still has around 80F degree waters ahead with little to no shear... Well the highest winds are going to be located in a fairly localized area, especially considering the overall size of Sandy. Based on the 90 MPH surface wind just found, I wouldn't be surprised if they found a 95 MPH surface wind somewhere today, but I doubt it would make it make it down to the surface over land areas. That doesn't make Sandy any less impressive and if anything, may add a little extra oomph to the surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy looks fantastic. Permalink image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Interesting to note that the NHC has Cat 2 probabilities at 21% in 12 hours. Would not be surprised if it did get to that point as fast as the pressure is dropping currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Where do you guys get your up to the minute recon data from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Where do you guys get your up to the minute recon data from? http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 941 is extrap pressure from HDOB obs. But Eye Dropsonde reported 948mb with 14kt surface wind. Waiting for VDM to confirm pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 291027 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 29/09:41:50Z B. 36 deg 10 min N 070 deg 40 min W C. 700 mb 2604 m D. 42 kt E. 308 deg 62 nm F. 078 deg 46 kt G. 308 deg 70 nm H. 948 mb I. 10 C / 3049 m J. 14 C / 3053 m K. 13 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 2318A SANDY OB 13 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 94 KT SE QUAD 10:14:00Z MAX FL TEMP 17 C 118 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR MAX OUTBOUND SFMR SFC WIND 61 KT SE QUAD 10:01:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Where do you guys get your up to the minute recon data from? Do the Google Earth thing with it. Wonderful tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Recon is heading back in for another fix before the 8 am advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 800 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATING... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 71.1W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 sea ranch hotel kill devil hills nc posted earlier in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 84 kts sfmr unflagged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 84 kts sfmr unflagged A whole host of 80-84kt unflagged readings. I'm sure they dropped a sonde in that region and its reading will be very interesting. This thing is likely close to if not cat 2 intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Dropsonde 85 mph at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Dropsonde 85 mph at surface The splash was southwest of the highest SFMR values, so it's likely a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.