dan88 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 102kt at 700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 102 Knot FL winds now. URNT15 KNHC 290109 AF308 2218A SANDY HDOB 24 20121029 005930 3244N 07247W 6967 02888 9798 +061 -015 287095 098 046 003 00 010000 3242N 07247W 6960 02900 9798 +066 -016 287093 095 046 003 00 010030 3241N 07248W 6970 02888 9801 +065 -020 287094 096 046 003 00 010100 3239N 07248W 6967 02892 9802 +067 -019 287092 093 047 004 00 010130 3237N 07248W 6969 02894 9800 +070 -014 285090 092 044 003 00 010200 3236N 07249W 6971 02897 9805 +068 -014 282092 094 044 005 00 010230 3234N 07249W 6962 02905 9818 +057 -007 282097 098 044 006 00 010300 3233N 07249W 6963 02909 9818 +059 -020 283100 102 045 006 00 010330 3231N 07250W 6971 02902 9819 +062 -029 285098 102 045 006 00 010400 3229N 07250W 6968 02907 9830 +055 -016 286091 095 047 006 00 010430 3228N 07250W 6965 02914 9827 +059 -021 286096 097 046 008 00 010500 3226N 07251W 6965 02916 9827 +062 -018 287090 096 047 005 00 010530 3224N 07251W 6967 02912 9833 +059 -023 284089 090 047 006 00 010600 3223N 07252W 6968 02916 9838 +055 -016 282089 091 047 006 00 010630 3221N 07252W 6965 02920 9828 +064 -001 280085 086 046 006 00 010700 3220N 07252W 6962 02925 9821 +073 -014 279082 085 043 005 00 010730 3218N 07253W 6961 02927 9812 +082 -035 284086 088 044 006 00 010800 3216N 07253W 6978 02906 9803 +094 -063 287085 089 045 004 03 010830 3216N 07254W 6963 02929 9809 +091 -063 291082 085 /// /// 03 010900 3218N 07254W 6970 02922 9815 +083 -059 288078 081 042 006 03 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 102 Knot FL winds now. URNT15 KNHC 290109 AF308 2218A SANDY HDOB 24 20121029 005930 3244N 07247W 6967 02888 9798 +061 -015 287095 098 046 003 00 010000 3242N 07247W 6960 02900 9798 +066 -016 287093 095 046 003 00 010030 3241N 07248W 6970 02888 9801 +065 -020 287094 096 046 003 00 010100 3239N 07248W 6967 02892 9802 +067 -019 287092 093 047 004 00 010130 3237N 07248W 6969 02894 9800 +070 -014 285090 092 044 003 00 010200 3236N 07249W 6971 02897 9805 +068 -014 282092 094 044 005 00 010230 3234N 07249W 6962 02905 9818 +057 -007 282097 098 044 006 00 010300 3233N 07249W 6963 02909 9818 +059 -020 283100 102 045 006 00 010330 3231N 07250W 6971 02902 9819 +062 -029 285098 102 045 006 00 010400 3229N 07250W 6968 02907 9830 +055 -016 286091 095 047 006 00 010430 3228N 07250W 6965 02914 9827 +059 -021 286096 097 046 008 00 010500 3226N 07251W 6965 02916 9827 +062 -018 287090 096 047 005 00 010530 3224N 07251W 6967 02912 9833 +059 -023 284089 090 047 006 00 010600 3223N 07252W 6968 02916 9838 +055 -016 282089 091 047 006 00 010630 3221N 07252W 6965 02920 9828 +064 -001 280085 086 046 006 00 010700 3220N 07252W 6962 02925 9821 +073 -014 279082 085 043 005 00 010730 3218N 07253W 6961 02927 9812 +082 -035 284086 088 044 006 00 010800 3216N 07253W 6978 02906 9803 +094 -063 287085 089 045 004 03 010830 3216N 07254W 6963 02929 9809 +091 -063 291082 085 /// /// 03 010900 3218N 07254W 6970 02922 9815 +083 -059 288078 081 042 006 03 $$ So about what is that at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 So about what is that at the surface? I don't know if it calculates down the same way since it's not a completely tropical system but probably 70kts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Recon is finding a FL-SFC reduction factor near 50% #lifesaver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Recon is finding a FL-SFC reduction factor near 50% #lifesaver that seems really low.... could be a 80mph cane now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 earthlight just posted in the thread #3 in the NYC region that there was a (104mph just recorded from a dropsonde at 1500 feet).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What? That's really low. Wow. This buoy is 150 miles east of Hatteras so its pretty close maybe 75-100 miles away from the center gusting to 30-40 knts last few obs http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41001 the east side is better it appears this buoy is 125-150 miles east of the center and has winds gusting to 60 knts http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Recon is finding a FL-SFC reduction factor near 50% #lifesaver Yep. That doesn't surprise me at all. The 90% value that we often apply pretty-much applies only to strengthening cyclones, deep in or near the tropics, with solid convection. In most 'canes-- especially higher-latitude ones with weak convection-- the value is much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 about to get some more fuel as it passes over the gulf current Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 An interesting, well-defined inversion is evident in some of the dropsondes, which is helping to prevent some of the higher winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. A couple examples (images from tropicalatlantic.com): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 An interesting, well-defined inversion is evident in some of the dropsondes, which is helping to prevent some of the higher winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. A couple examples (images from tropicalatlantic.com): is this inversion going to weaken or dissapate to help get these winds to the surface more efficiently? kind of thought thats what it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The inversion makes it tough to know how much wind gusts to play for various cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The inversion makes it tough to know how much wind gusts to play for various cities. we were chatting about this in the philly thread. A lot of the high res models and nowcasting models show that inversion coming into southern jersey and into se pa reducing the winds. you can see it here on the 925 wind map off the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 we were chatting about this in the philly thread. A lot of the high res models and nowcasting models show that inversion coming into southern jersey and into se pa reducing the winds. you can see it here on the 925 wind map off the RAP 925 is still well off the ground making it hard to know how much of those winds will get to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 we were chatting about this in the philly thread. A lot of the high res models and nowcasting models show that inversion coming into southern jersey and into se pa reducing the winds. you can see it here on the 925 wind map off the RAP It's called an eye...come on man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I am betting that reduction factor changes pretty fast once cold air really begins to wrap around the center. Bufkit profiles show a rapid steepening of the low-level lapse rates in response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Lake Erie Buoy 45005, north of Sandusky, Ohio, reporting sustained winds of 29 knots (33 mph) and gusts to 35 knots (40 mph) at 5 m agl. Sustained winds at 10 m agl were reported to be 31 knots (36 mph) and 33 knots (38 mph) at 20 m agl. So Sandy is nearly producing tropical storm force winds all the way over Lake Erie now. Obviously, there are no tropical storm force winds over the land areas between Sandy's center of circulation and Lake Erie but there are near tropical storm force winds over the open waters of the lake. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=45005 That's a very good point, and one I'm going to be keenly interested in over the next 24-48 hours. Model soundings (WRF, GFS) over the interior portions of the mid Atlantic show quite a bit of warm mid and even upper tropospheric air, to the degree where the lapse rates are even weaker than moist adiabatic through 500 mb or so. It will be tough to effectively mix down these higher winds aloft on the west side of this system, given such a deep warm, moist profile aloft. At least with Isabel and Irene, there was some dryer air entrainment aloft on the backside, which made for fairly impressive "gust factors" at the surface (i.e. on the order of 2 or so, with obs like "28G57KT"). In this event I'm not so sure the gust factor over land will be there, especially given the time of year with the warm profile aloft and a cool northerly low level flow (i.e. stable environment). At least that's what the forecast soundings are suggesting, though the worst winds for many mid-Atlantic areas south of Sandy's track, and east of the mountains, may be when Sandy makes it far enough inland to allow more of a NW-W surface wind, with the ensuing downsloping component perhaps providing enough (certainly better) low level mixing to allow some of those stronger winds to transport downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It's called an eye...come on man. yea i see the eye, i was just saying the finger like appendage coming off the eye working into southern jerz and se pa. I didn't know that whole section was related to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I am betting that reduction factor changes pretty fast once cold air really begins to wrap around the center. Bufkit profiles show a rapid steepening of the low-level lapse rates in response. The nam shows a steeper lapse rate up to the stronger winds at 925 on a couple of 3 hourly soundings at DCA so it doesn't look to bad to me for those two periods. I suspect that the gfs will show strongly winds at 925 than the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 MAX FL WIND 102 KT S QUAD 01:03:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 An interesting, well-defined inversion is evident in some of the dropsondes, which is helping to prevent some of the higher winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. A couple examples (images from tropicalatlantic.com): My guess are those are from the outer band of intense flight winds (correct me if I'm wrong). Do you have any charts from sondes nearer the center of circulation? I ask because it seems the reduction factor is actually higher than 0.90 near the center, based on sonde and SFMR data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 New VDM features a circular eye (albeit still open to the SE) and a 7C temp differential. Methinks Sandy is going to deepen overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wind shear over the cyclone's central circulation has dropped to about 15kt and it appears to be responding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Convection is almost fully wrapped around the eye once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The vort over the deep south is just now beginning to phase with Sandy. That should start to strengthen her overnight and allow the turn west. Still interesting how a system behaving in this manner can be classified as a hurricane. All further strengthening is going to be based on polar jet phasing/interaction. Not SSTs or "improved structure", in the tropical sense. http://www.aviationw...ltiple&itype=wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wind shear over the cyclone's central circulation has dropped to about 15kt and it appears to be responding. The IR depiction has improved quite a bit over the last few hours. Relatively cold tops now surrounding the eye with an expanding area of rather cold tops (coldest in quite some time) over the western semicircle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 My guess are those are from the outer band of intense flight winds (correct me if I'm wrong). Do you have any charts from sondes nearer the center of circulation? I ask because it seems the reduction factor is actually higher than 0.90 near the center, based on sonde and SFMR data. You are correct, they are from the outer wind maximum. There haven't been any sondes in the eyewall, but as you note the winds seems to be translating much better down to the surface based on SFMR data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Think we have a record in size for gale force diameter of an Atlantic tropical cyclone with the 11pm advisory. 34kt winds 450nm NE, 360nm SW, for 810nm or 932sm. Igor, the current record holder, had a gale force wind diameter of 920sm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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