turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 You're beating up a straw man here. The NHC has also never not had a Hurricane Watch or Warning out for a hurricane that is 24-48 hours from landfall... they've already broken their basic rules... and we aren't talking about polar vortices... this is a hurricane, plan and simple. Don't try to cloud the discussion with nonsense. This hasn't been a hurricane plain and simple since it was in the Bahamas. The structure is highly baroclinic in the middle to upper troposphere with the low levels quickly becoming baroclinic too. The only tropical cyclone like structure left is the warm core seclusion. This has been subtropical for awhile at least, and extratropical transition is well underway. Usually not a good idea to grossly under analyze the situation by saying this is a hurricane plain and simple when the entire discussion for the past weak has been about how strange this storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Last set of HDOBs from the NOAA plane recorded a 64kt uncontaminated SFMR reading, with several in the 60-63kt range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Seems reasonable as it gets farther north Yeah, the surface-reduction factor is going to drop sharply. I can't imagine it's more than 0.7 or 0.75 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The 41048 buoy west of Bermuda has waves now of 34 ft, up 10 feet in 4 hours, 4 the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 94kt at FL on this AF recon pass. SFMR indicating a large disparity between the FL and sfc, though. Buoys are not terribly impressive given the pressures.....most of these are within 150-100 miles of the center and it the center should get pretty close to the second one and the center missed the top one to the SE... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The 41048 buoy west of Bermuda has waves now of 34 ft, up 10 feet in 4 hours, 4 the last hour. That is unbelievable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 IMO any storm of tropical origin that maintains hurricane intensity in its subtropical or post-tropical phase while threatening land should be treated as a hurricane. We're talking about a public perception and response issue here, which was clearly slowed down because this storm was not maintained as a hurricane to landfall. Time to get off the pure science and bureaucratic soapboxes and get on the saving lives and property soapbox. Imagine a 1938-like storm heading toward Long Island, undergoing post-tropical transition yet maintaining winds of Cat 3 intensity in its warm seclusion. Everyone knows what should be done in that situation. Heck, even this storm might produce wind gusts just shy of Cat 2 intensity on Long Island during and right after NJ landfall! On the other hand... I'm not sure I totally agree that it's just a technicality. A hurricane and a nor'easter are two completely different experiences, and I'm not sure it would help the public to describe a nor'easter as a hurricane. Even a large hurricane has a relatively narrow core, with the significant impacts confined relatively close to the center, and the duration of those significant impacts of relatively short duration in any one location. A nor'easter is the opposite-- the worst effects extend way, way far from the center-- hundreds of miles-- and spread over huge distances, spatially and temporally. So, in terms of sensible weather, the distinctions aren't just academic-- they're very real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On the other hand... I'm not sure I totally agree that it's just a technicality. A hurricane and a nor'easter are two completely different experiences, and I'm not sure it would help the public to describe a Nor'easter as a hurricane. Even a large hurricane has a narrow core, with the significant impacts confined relatively close to the center, and the duration of those signigficant impacts of relatively short duration. A nor'easter is the opposite-- the effects are way, way far from the center, and spread over huge distances, spatially and temporally. So, in terms of sensible weather, the distinctions aren't just academic-- they're very real. This is not a nor'easter. It's also not a hurricane. It's in a grey area somewhere in between. Let's not forget that. (I'm not just talking to you, Josh, but to everyone who's saying this is a hurricane, too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This is not a nor'easter. It's also not a hurricane. It's in a grey area somewhere in between. Let's not forget that. (I'm not just talking to you, Josh, but to everyone who's saying this is a hurricane, too). Agreed-- I know. And, based on the convective pattern, I totally see why they're still calling it a 'cane now. I'm talking more about what we think it will be in 24-36 hr. The thing is-- we don't really know exactly what it's going to be as it comes ashore, and I understand the NHC's reasoning-- that, since we don't know what it will be, let's just go with generic wind warnings so that there's no break in messaging continuity as it comes ashore. It makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Again, the warnings are out-- and have been out-- for hurricane-force winds and very high tides. Even if this is the storm of the century, the populace has been warned-- and no one can suggest otherwise. I think folks are trying to manufacture a problem here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 000 URNT12 KWBC 282242 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 28/22:17:00Z B. 33 deg 36 min N 071 deg 16 min W C. NA D. 51 kt E. 184 deg 19 nm F. 264 deg 59 kt G. 182 deg 46 nm H. 951 mb I. 8 C / 3671 m J. 12 C / 3670 m K. 8 C / NA L. OPEN SE M. E15/30/20 N. 12345 / NA O. 1 / 1 nm P. NOAA2 2118A SANDY OB 05 MAX FL WIND 59 KT S QUAD 22:06:03Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 54 KT N QUAD 22:39:25Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Agreed-- I know. And, based on the convective pattern, I totally see why they're still calling it a 'cane now. I'm talking more about what we think it will be in 24-36 hr. The thing is-- we don't really know exactly what it's going to be as it comes ashore, and I understand the NHC's reasoning-- that, since we don't know what it will be, let's just go with generic wind warnings so that there's no break in messaging continuity as it comes ashore. It makes sense to me. Yep, I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy seems to be nearing record size for an Atlantic storm. The latest advisory has 34kt winds 450nm NE and 330nm SW, or a diameter of 34kt winds of 780nm/898sm/1445km. The record Igor had a gale force wind diameter of 920sm Wind field is just about 4 times as large as Katrina at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wind field is just about 4 times as large as Katrina at landfall. Obviously weaker max winds, but that does put things into perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That VDM above said OPEN SE in the L section... does this mean Sandy has an eyewall again nearly closed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That VDM above said OPEN SE in the L section... does this mean Sandy has an eyewall again nearly closed? I would just about say so yeah: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That VDM above said OPEN SE in the L section... does this mean Sandy has an eyewall again nearly closed? yes...i think you can see that here... http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&isingle=multiple&itype=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Seeing on twitter that the 1944 hurricane had hurricane winds 400nm across... and something about 1988 and largest on record... is that Igor or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'll be doing a live chat at 8pm until ??. Click on CHAT on the menu bar to access the chat room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 No change in winds in the 8pm advisory. Pressure down 2mb to 950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 On the other hand... I'm not sure I totally agree that it's just a technicality. A hurricane and a nor'easter are two completely different experiences, and I'm not sure it would help the public to describe a nor'easter as a hurricane. Even a large hurricane has a relatively narrow core, with the significant impacts confined relatively close to the center, and the duration of those significant impacts of relatively short duration in any one location. A nor'easter is the opposite-- the worst effects extend way, way far from the center-- hundreds of miles-- and spread over huge distances, spatially and temporally. So, in terms of sensible weather, the distinctions aren't just academic-- they're very real. Partly devils advocate here, Ike didn't have a very tight central core, had a large expanse of tropical storm winds, and wasn't in any way sub-tropical or post-tropical. Isidore post Yucatan was also a large, sloppy but purely tropical system. ETA One would presume that if 1938 happened again, because the storm was clearly transitioning, no NHC warnings would have been required for New York or Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sustained gale winds at Norfolk, VA. The size of this cyclone really is something. When all is said and done, I think probably the duration of gale winds rather than the peak-gust values will be what we remember about Sandy's winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Also of note, Sandy's eastward progression is slowing markedly. 11:00am - 72.6W 2:00pm - 71.9W (0.7deg) 5:00pm - 71.3W (0.6deg) 8:00pm - 70.9W (0.4deg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 A cyclone can have an extremely tight core and an enormous gale radius-- the two are not mutually exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 A cyclone can have an extremely tight core and an enormous gale radius-- the two are not mutually exclusive. Yes they can. This storm is sort of a noreaster forming around a hurricane. Hopefully the frictional convergence may help shrink the core as it moves toward the coast. Water temps are too cold for fireworks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Lake Erie Buoy 45005, north of Sandusky, Ohio, reporting sustained winds of 29 knots (33 mph) and gusts to 35 knots (40 mph) at 5 m agl. Sustained winds at 10 m agl were reported to be 31 knots (36 mph) and 33 knots (38 mph) at 20 m agl. So Sandy is nearly producing tropical storm force winds all the way over Lake Erie now. Obviously, there are no tropical storm force winds over the land areas between Sandy's center of circulation and Lake Erie but there are near tropical storm force winds over the open waters of the lake. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=45005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Eye dropsonde splashed with measured pressure of 950 mb with 10 kt winds, so probably around 949 mb at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Eye dropsonde splashed with measured pressure of 950 mb with 10 kt winds, so probably around 949 mb at this point. Pretty impressive. This could be the biggest win for computer modeling on record if things continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Flight-level winds are increasing with multiple 98 knot values in the latest data package. URNT15 KNHC 290059 AF308 2218A SANDY HDOB 23 20121029 004930 3320N 07240W 6976 02842 9745 +070 +070 315040 043 062 018 01 005000 3318N 07241W 6968 02849 9744 +070 +070 317040 043 060 018 01 005030 3316N 07241W 6963 02859 9748 +070 +070 313042 045 060 015 01 005100 3314N 07240W 6968 02852 9749 +070 +070 322042 045 059 017 01 005130 3312N 07240W 6972 02846 9750 +070 +070 314051 055 059 022 05 005200 3310N 07240W 6965 02856 9738 +070 +070 315046 049 059 013 01 005230 3308N 07241W 6966 02863 9753 +070 +070 303053 055 059 013 01 005300 3306N 07242W 6969 02857 //// +057 //// 299053 056 057 012 01 005330 3305N 07243W 6968 02864 9771 +060 +060 297064 069 055 009 01 005400 3303N 07243W 6966 02865 9771 +060 +060 296074 076 052 009 01 005430 3301N 07244W 6969 02867 9778 +050 +050 293078 080 052 007 01 005500 3259N 07244W 6968 02870 9785 +050 +050 292083 084 054 006 01 005530 3258N 07244W 6972 02863 9781 +055 +051 290081 083 054 006 00 005600 3256N 07245W 6965 02873 9778 +059 +046 289084 085 051 006 00 005630 3254N 07245W 6973 02866 9798 +046 +036 286090 091 051 006 00 005700 3253N 07245W 6963 02882 9790 +056 +027 286090 091 049 004 00 005730 3251N 07246W 6966 02884 9794 +056 +018 286094 096 048 004 00 005800 3249N 07246W 6967 02883 9791 +063 +001 288096 098 049 003 00 005830 3248N 07246W 6967 02884 9793 +065 -012 287097 098 046 004 00 005900 3246N 07247W 6970 02885 9800 +061 -019 285097 098 048 004 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Already about 3 feet of surge in New York City at Kings Point and the Battery, winds gusting to 41 mph at LaGuardia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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