wxmeddler Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Dunes getting hammered at high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm surprised how decent the structure still looks. Very interesting! Given that it's still looking essentially tropical, I, too, am starting to wonder if it's going to make that structural transition to extratropical before landfall-- and, if it doesn't, how that's going to be handled. Really burning with curiosity Re: how this whole thing is going to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Per this... TROPICAL at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm surprised how decent the structure still looks. Very interesting! Given that it's still looking essentially tropical, I, too, am starting to wonder if it's going to make that structural transition to extratropical before landfall-- and, if it doesn't, how that's going to be handled. Really burning with curiosity Re: how this whole thing is going to play out. Its worth noting that the storm is still over 26-27 degree C water temperatures and will for the next 12-24 hours (and these may warm slightly as the storm crosses the Gulf Stream which is still off to its north). I wouldn't expect any rapid extra-tropical transition until the hours leading towards landfall (late tomorrow evening) as the storm crosses a very strong SST gradient to the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Bermuda and the Outer Banks both within the radius of tropical storm force winds at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Its worth noting that the storm is still over 26-27 degree C water temperatures and will for the next 12-24 hours (and these may warm slightly as the storm crosses the Gulf Stream which is still off to its north). I wouldn't expect any rapid extra-tropical transition until the hours leading towards landfall (late tomorrow evening) as the storm crosses a very strong SST gradient to the coastline. And the latest NHC forecast (posted by yoda) shows it as a tropical hurricane onshore. Hmmmm. There now seems to be a bit of a contradiction between the forecast and the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 And the latest NHC forecast (posted by yoda) shows it as a tropical hurricane onshore. Hmmmm. There now seems to be a bit of a contradiction between the forecast and the warnings. There hasn't been much support for anything other than a warm-core landfall over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 And the latest NHC forecast (posted by yoda) shows it as a tropical hurricane onshore. Hmmmm. There now seems to be a bit of a contradiction between the forecast and the warnings. Its been CORRECTED (as the public and marine adv says now) to post-tropical This is getting annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 From the 5 pm disco A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. Beating a dead horse I know... but really would have been easier with tropical warnings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Its been CORRECTED (as the public and marine adv says now) to post-tropical This is getting annoying Yep, it's been corrected. No biggie. Try doing their job for a day-- then complain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Its been CORRECTED (as the public and marine adv says now) to post-tropical This is getting annoying Kind of like 115 mph landfall at Cuba "fixed" to 110 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 You guys sure are quick to find fault with the NHC. Get over it. They're the best in the world. It's a complex situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yep, it's been corrected. No biggie. Try doing their job for a day-- then complain: Trust me, I have the utmost respect for them and they are the experts... its just I disagree with them, especially when in their disco they say it will make the transition AT landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy seems to be nearing record size for an Atlantic storm. The latest advisory has 34kt winds 450nm NE and 330nm SW, or a diameter of 34kt winds of 780nm/898sm/1445km. The record Igor had a gale force wind diameter of 920sm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Dropsonde just found 45 kt surface winds 400 nmi from the center due N of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 You guys sure are quick to find fault with the NHC. Get over it. They're the best in the world. It's a complex situation. This will be a great case to look back on and formulate some new standards for anything like this in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 There hasn't been much support for anything other than a warm-core landfall over the past few days. Warm core cyclone does not equal tropical cyclone. GFS is persistent on extratropical transition being in its latter stages by the time landfall occurs, it will progress quickly once Sandy crosses north of the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Trust me, I have the utmost respect for them and they are the experts... its just I disagree with them, especially when in their disco they say it will make the transition AT landfall Don't follow them then. You didn't just disagree with them, you we're annoyed with them. You somehow took it personal. Serious, why do weenies follow and count on these agencies night and day, then when a slip up occurs they sink their "righteous" teeth in? Just comical as hell is all. Sorry for the derail... Ha, knew I shouldn't have opened this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks to be going a bit to the right of the forecast on the NHC floater satellite loop. Thus maybe landfall will be more to the north towards NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The NHC has never issued hurricane warnings for an extra-tropical cyclone, they're not going to break one of their most basic rules for the sake of keeping the public hyped up. Sandy will undoubtedly be largely baroclinic upon landfall throughout the outer vortex, besides a small core with tropical cyclone like characteristics. If they call that a hurricane and issue hurricane warnings for it then we better start issuing advisories for Polar Lows/Blizzards with warm cores in the Atlantic and East Pacific. I think that would be a good idea since they're dynamically similar, but this isn't the right time to make that decision. You're beating up a straw man here. The NHC has also never not had a Hurricane Watch or Warning out for a hurricane that is 24-48 hours from landfall... they've already broken their basic rules... and we aren't talking about polar vortices... this is a hurricane, plan and simple. Don't try to cloud the discussion with nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Warm core cyclone does not equal tropical cyclone. GFS is persistent on extratropical transition being in its latter stages by the time landfall occurs, it will progress quickly once Sandy crosses north of the Gulf Stream. I agree later stages, but complete? I don't think so, not until after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Warm core cyclone does not equal tropical cyclone. GFS is persistent on extratropical transition being in its latter stages by the time landfall occurs, it will progress quickly once Sandy crosses north of the Gulf Stream. So am I using this incorrectly then? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/12102812/2.html That would appear to me that Sandy is warm core until she is over land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This will be a great case to look back on and formulate some new standards for anything like this in the future. Well, let's first see if the actual warnings prove inadequate. While we in the weather community are quibbling over technicalities, on a broad scale, it looks to me like everyone's clear that a big storm is coming, and measures are being taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So am I using this incorrectly then? http://moe.met.fsu.e...12102812/2.html That would appear to me that Sandy is warm core until she is over land Like turtle said, warm core does not equal tropical cyclone. That phase diagram in fact shows that Sandy is quite asymmetric, which is a sign of extratropical storms. It sort of has features of both right now, and that will continue through landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Buxton NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well, let's first see if the actual warning prove inadequate. While we in the weather community are quibbling over technicalities, on a broad scale, it looks to me like everyone's clear that a big storm is coming, and measures are being taken. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 94kt at FL on this AF recon pass. SFMR indicating a large disparity between the FL and sfc, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 94kt at FL on this AF recon pass. SFMR indicating a large disparity between the FL and sfc, though. Seems reasonable as it gets farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Warm core cyclone does not equal tropical cyclone. GFS is persistent on extratropical transition being in its latter stages by the time landfall occurs, it will progress quickly once Sandy crosses north of the Gulf Stream. IMO any storm of tropical origin that maintains hurricane intensity in its subtropical or post-tropical phase while threatening land should be treated as a hurricane. We're talking about a public perception and response issue here, which was clearly slowed down because this storm was not maintained as a hurricane to landfall. Time to get off the pure science and bureaucratic soapboxes and get on the saving lives and property soapbox. Imagine a 1938-like storm heading toward Long Island, undergoing post-tropical transition yet maintaining winds of Cat 3 intensity in its warm seclusion. Everyone knows what should be done in that situation. Heck, even this storm might produce wind gusts just shy of Cat 2 intensity on Long Island during and right after NJ landfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well, let's first see if the actual warning prove inadequate. While we in the weather community are quibbling over technicalities, on a broad scale, it looks to me like everyone's clear that a big storm is coming, and measures are being taken. That's what I'm hoping is the media focus afterward, rather than what NHC did or didn't do (especially if it ends up landfalling as a TC). I've been following the NWS offices in that area and they've done an excellent job with their forecasts, warnings, and outreach efforts to get people to do the right thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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