heavy_wx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy will be getting into the right entrance region of the strong jet streak downstream of the main trough today, as well as staying in the left exit region of a weaker subtropical jet streak. It should also stay or cross over the gulf stream within 24 hours, allowing it to maintain the warm core.This should support some more intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbbballkid37 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Someone asked about waves... most of the products (that I've been able to find) don't go too far into the north atlantic, if anyone knows of some, I'd love to get the link. Here's a regional WW3 derived from the Navy NOGAPS. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=27km_watl&set=SeaState Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thank you sir! Another one http://polar.ncep.no..._1-NW_atlantic- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Very impressive tower in the circulation now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Buoy's near Sandy are showing 22-28 foot waves right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sat derived winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Apologies if this has been posted. Live webcam on Virgina Beach boardwalk: http://www.vbbound.com/webcam/hampton-inn-virginia-beach/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 72.6W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSIONS THIS MORNING HAVE REVEALED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY OR OVERALL STRUCTURE OF SANDY...EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BENE AS LOW AS 951 MB. THE AIRCRAFT DATA... ALONG WITH DATA FROM SHIPS...BUOYS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATION SITES INDICATE...HOWEVER...THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 150 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO ABOUT 200 N MI IN THAT SAME QUADRANT. BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TRACK WOBBLES BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/12 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVED EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS THE TROUGH UNDERCUTS SANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS WITHIN 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN THE 12 TO 36-HOUR PERIOD AND SANDY IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 25C. AS A RESULT...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SANDY TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARM GULFSTREAM TONIGHT. BY 36 HOURS... THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING...AND A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL... THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 32.5N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 34.0N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 36.4N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 38.7N 72.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 40.1N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1200Z 41.3N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1200Z 44.5N 76.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1200Z 46.6N 73.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cool seeing how close the two jet streams are and how they pass on either side of Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Now showing 30 foot waves... Station 41001 NDBC Location: 34.561N 72.631W Date: Sun, 28 Oct 2012 14:50:00 UTC Winds: ENE (70°) at 36.9 kt gusting to 48.6 kt Significant Wave Height: 29.5 ft Dominant Wave Period: 12 sec Mean Wave Direction: E (84°) Atmospheric Pressure: 28.87 in and falling Air Temperature: 75.9 F Water Temperature: 79.9 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Friendly reminder to use 300mb maps for the polar jet and 200mb maps for the subtropical jet (STJ doesn't shop up very well at 300). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Now showing 30 foot waves... Station 41001 NDBC Location: 34.561N 72.631W Date: Sun, 28 Oct 2012 14:50:00 UTC Winds: ENE (70°) at 36.9 kt gusting to 48.6 kt Significant Wave Height: 29.5 ft Dominant Wave Period: 12 sec Mean Wave Direction: E (84°) Atmospheric Pressure: 28.87 in and falling Air Temperature: 75.9 F Water Temperature: 79.9 F The history graph is revealing: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41001&meas=sght&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 recon just found 78 kts at FL... this is the strongest Sandy has been in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 We have a intensifying Sandy on our hands this morning. Recon finding much more consistent 60/65 kt+ winds compared to last nights missions. Max flight wind of near 90 mph found also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Friendly reminder to use 300mb maps for the polar jet and 200mb maps for the subtropical jet (STJ doesn't shop up very well at 300). Thanks for this mention. Its important to note that the three jet streams in the atmosphere (subtropical, polar, arctic) are relative to the location of the tropopause in the atmosphere. Thus typically the subtropical jet will always be higher aloft than the polar jet, just like the polar jet will also be higher aloft than the arctic jet. This is why Dynamic tropopause maps look they way they do, which three distinct gradients near the jet cores. Example: When Sandy was still located in the Caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Took a wobble SE, but the eye is popping. Possible sign shear is lowering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 i'd imagine we see another good pressure drop over the next 6 hours...what do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Tweet... Henry Margusity @Accu_Henry Sandy is about 12 hours from starting her turn toward the coast. The jet over Arkansas is the pusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Took a wobble SE, but the eye is popping. Possible sign shear is lowering. I agree, inner core looks way less sheared than yesterday. Low topped convection has organized into coherent bands all around the core. Could be the beginning of the warm seclusion region taking on tropical cyclone like characteristics. This sequence of events has been similar to the 'Perfect Storm' around this time of the year in 1991, except the pressures are way lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The next six hours are going to be very interesting to watch. I think we're going to see some nice intensification by nightfall. Shear is definitely relaxing and the convection on satellite looks to be increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This looks more like a Hurricane now then it did when it was in the Caribbean. Very impressive. Is 951 mb the current pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Is 951 mb the current pressure? 952.7 xtrap on last pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 THIS LINK: says it all http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/goes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The shear over the system is around 25 knots so shear is not prohibitively strong for convection to continue to fire and develop around the center. In addition, in around 18 hours as the system makes it turn, it will briefly move over the Gulf Stream, which still has some moderate oceanic heat content for this time of the year. As long as the shear remains low to moderate (a likely assumption) this could allow Sandy to have a bit of a resurgence in deeper convection near the center. It wouldn't be that difficult to see Sandy deepen another 10 or so hPa, which would put the pressure at around 940, which is what several of the more agressive guidance members have been depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 URNT12 KNHC 281739 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 28/17:21:30Z B. 32 deg 42 min N 071 deg 59 min W C. 700 mb 2670 m D. 47 kt E. 173 deg 26 nm F. 237 deg 69 kt G. 138 deg 127 nm H. 953 mb I. 10 C / 3047 m J. 12 C / 3050 m K. 12 C / NA L. SPIRAL BAND M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 2018A SANDY OB 16 MAX FL WIND 78 KT S QUAD 16:17:30Z MAX FL TEMP 13 C 199 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This will be fun to use in visually tracking the wind. http://hint.fm/wind/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radius Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yes but too bad it doesn't scale to 100 mph This will be fun to use in visually tracking the wind. http://hint.fm/wind/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Mind-blowing size. Link. Warning: 30 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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