turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Even though the pressure hasn't dropped Sandy has been intensifying in the sense that the wind field is expanding. Sandy now has the largest Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of any tropical cyclone in history, 222 terajoules (one trillion joules, 10^12). This gives it tremendous surge and wave potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ya this reminds me of the perfect storm regarding wave generating capabilities. conincidentally, and not just the (IKE index). Sandy is gonna send swell and waves of extremely large size (obviously) and where ever her LONG FETCH is pointed, wave size may surprise unknowing people. turtlelhurricane do we have any satelite derived maps that show the windbarbs kinda like quikscat used to do. I'd like to know where the largest fetch is pointed. if anyone recall's the perfect storm swell it sent such enormous swell to palm beach county, swell rose from 4-5 feet to over 20 feet the day the monster swell hit, and the storm was 1000 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Even though the pressure hasn't dropped Sandy has been intensifying in the sense that the wind field is expanding. Sandy now has the largest Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of any tropical cyclone in history, 222 terajoules (one trillion joules, 10^12). This gives it tremendous surge and wave potential. Wow! What is the circulations diameter? roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Question: is IKE both a function of size AND windspeed? I have a hard time believing that Sandy's IKE is bigger than Ike's or Katrina's despite its massive windfield, just because Katrina and Ike were so much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Question: is IKE both a function of size AND windspeed? I have a hard time believing that Sandy's IKE is bigger than Ike's or Katrina's despite its massive windfield, just because Katrina and Ike were so much stronger. Well when you have hurricane force winds extending 105 miles out from the center and tropical storm force winds extending 520 miles out from the center, crazy things like that tend to happen. And yes it factors in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 could deff be some organization taking place. Shear is decreasing and divergence is FINALLY growing above the eye. And i noticed a eye on sandy on the visible right before sunset. The divergence was never really lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Question: is IKE both a function of size AND windspeed? I have a hard time believing that Sandy's IKE is bigger than Ike's or Katrina's despite its massive windfield, just because Katrina and Ike were so much stronger. I don't have a hard time believing it, look at the size of the wind field, it is over 500 miles wide and will continue to grow going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That's a pretty weak parallel. C'mon. The previous situation was a Cat-5 hurricane approaching a city below sea level. The current situation is a nor'easter impacting I95 cities. I feel like there's a lot of crying wolf about this system. I'm not suggesting it won't have impact or be destructive, but people are just going really over-the-top about this. Josh, c'mon, while I'd agree with the first part, in that Katrina is probably not the best comparison to make right now, I don't think people are crying wolf when a storm of potentially historic proportions is heading towards the most heavily populated area of the country. And this is no typical nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That's a pretty weak parallel. C'mon. The previous situation was a Cat-5 hurricane approaching a city below sea level. The current situation is a nor'easter impacting I95 cities. I feel like there's a lot of crying wolf about this system. I'm not suggesting it won't have impact or be destructive, but people are just going really over-the-top about this. New Orleans was around 1 million people, NYC is 15 million. Whether we want to agree with it or not there will be a lot of people in the way of possibly strong storm surge. It might be over-the-top but honestly you have to err on the side of caution when you are dealing with so many lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sustained at 39 mph and gusting to 52 mph in Piney Island, NC. Tropical storm force gusts occurring across the outerbanks and northwards along the coast to the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The divergence was never really lost. i encourage you to step back through this to see that the divergence was on the east side rather than the entire system and that i weakened dramatically over today. http://tropic.ssec.w...dvg&zoom=&time= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The dual jet structure is going to take hold in about 12-18 hr, and we could potentially see Sandy strengthen quite significantly during that timeframe. In response to this, some of the mesoscale models intensify the 850-925mb winds to over 100 kt. It'll be interesting to see if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That's a pretty weak parallel. C'mon. The previous situation was a Cat-5 hurricane approaching a city below sea level. The current situation is a nor'easter impacting I95 cities. I feel like there's a lot of crying wolf about this system. I'm not suggesting it won't have impact or be destructive, but people are just going really over-the-top about this. You have some solid points. Katrina wasn't only a monster, it completely destroyed the entire infrastructure of the Gulf Coast region. The I-95 corridor will not be completely obliterated and we won't see a major diaspora and thousands dead. However meteorologically this is an amazing system and the utility system, as well as the transit system, in the most populated section of this country will be decimated by this storm. There shouldn't be many fatalities, but it will cause major damage, extreme flooding and most likely tens of millions will be without power. It's going to be an awful mess, just not total destruction like that event was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 06Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That's a pretty weak parallel. C'mon. The previous situation was a Cat-5 hurricane approaching a city below sea level. The current situation is a nor'easter impacting I95 cities. I feel like there's a lot of crying wolf about this system. I'm not suggesting it won't have impact or be destructive, but people are just going really over-the-top about this. I think it will be pretty bad overall, especially for flooding. The biggest concern I have is what percentage of those 900mb winds being shown will mix down. The other question is if the MSLP is too low or the model is too strong on those 900mb winds. The prime time this thing comes ashore is near 00Z when the sun is down, temps are near 60 and we have a pretty stable forecast sounding being shown. I could see where those winds mix down very close to the coast but just a few miles inland do not at all...we saw that a bit in the March 2010 storm. Right now I still am going generally 30-50 mph gusts to 60 with 70 possible on the immediate shoreline. I do think though that the true horrible part of this storm wind wise will be a narrow 4-5 hour window though it will be windy for about 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This storm is going to be bad. Think when the pacific cyclones crash into the PAC NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The current situation is a nor'easter impacting I95 cities. Give it time. Maximum intensity is probably a day from now. Roth, in his model diagnostics message this morning, regards it as a record-event, six standard deviations from the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Latest fix is 957 mb, down 3 mb from the previous one. Convection persistent near the core but still doesn't look that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks like the 500 mb winds are now interacting with Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 THE 00Z ECMWF & 00Z GFS MODELS ARE CLOSEST TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL WITH SANDY ARE EXTREME/IMPRESSIVE FROM THE GET-GO, RUNNING A RARELY-SEEN SIX SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER NEAR THE 30TH PARALLEL AT THE INITIAL TIME STEP, STRONGLY SUGGESTING A RECORD EVENT IS UNDERWAY. A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO WILL LEAD TO A REASONABLE COMPROMISE ALOFT, WHERE THE 00Z GFS HAS MUCH LOWER 500 HPA HEIGHTS (ON THE ORDER OF 5220 METERS) THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE (THOUGH ITS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES NEAR ITS CENTER IN MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA REMAIN WITHIN FOUR SIGMAS OF NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER SO IT CANNOT BE DISMISSED), INCLUDING THE NAM WHICH CAN BIAS IN THE DEEP DIRECTION. CONSULT LATEST NHC ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING SANDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 DAYS 2 AND 3... ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... A VERY SIGNIFICANT EARLY-SEASON SNOWSTORM IS BECOMING LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A VERY DEEP CYCLONE EVOLVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING IN ACROSS THE TN VLY ON SUNDAY WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED CAPTURE/MERGE WITH HURRICANE SANDY LIFTING NEWD UP OFF THE EAST COAST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A VERY POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTER THAT THEN ADVANCES BACK WNWWD AND THEN INLAND ACROSS NJ AND PA BY TUESDAY. THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMICAL FORCING ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. VERY INTENSE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVANCING WELL INLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AROUND THE NRN FLANK OF THE ADVANCING CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH THIS FORCING TO PRODUCE AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF HVY RAINFALL AT LEAST INITIALLY BACK TWD THE APPALACHIANS. ON MONDAY...THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF SUFFICIENT LOW LVL COLD AIR ADVECTION ADVANCING SEWD FROM THE GRT LAKES REGION...AND SUFFICIENT DYNAMICAL COOLING ALOFT FOR THERMAL PROFILES TO BEGIN BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA AND CNTRL/SRN WV INITIALLY. THEREAFTER...VERY STRONG DYNAMICAL COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COMPLETE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO ALL SNOW FOR ESP ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET...BUT LOCALLY DOWN TO AS LOW AS 1500 FEET. A HVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE FOR THESE AREAS...WITH ACCUM SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS SWRN PA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS FAR ERN TN AND NWRN NC AS THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE ENVELOPES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CNTRL WV WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN RESULTING FROM A POWERFUL DEFORMATION ZONE AND ROBUST WLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ACCUM SNOWFALL WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPR OH VLY WHERE LOW LVL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED GIVEN COLD NWLY FLOW FROM THE GRT LAKES REGION AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE STORM. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 FEET OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE STRONGLY NOTED THAT THE SNOWFALL WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE VERY HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT...AND THERMAL PROFILES WHILE APPEARING FAVORABLE FOR SNOW...ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL...AND SO THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY TIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Very good animation showing the explosive development of Sandy as she approaches shore http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_height_trends.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Big drop in pressure. 8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 28 Location: 32.1°N 73.1°W Moving: NE at 10 mph Min pressure: 951 mb Max sustained: 75 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Down to 951 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NHC has a statement on the flow of information after Sandy goes post-tropical. Advisories will revert to HPC like they they do with typical cylcones once they weaken inland. http://www.nhc.noaa....yTransition.pdf Once they declare it post-tropical recon will cease I assume? That wasn't specifically addressed here. Without recon would be more difficult for HPC to assess storm strength while still over water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 10 mb since 2 am. I think the interaction of the 500 mb winds are playing a big part in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy has had two rapid boosts of intensification. One 24 hours ago and another in the past 5-6 hours. Pressure is currently in the range some models had at landfall. Will the baro energy sources simply "take over" from the warm core processes and keep Sandy more or less steady state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy has had two rapid boosts of intensification. One 24 hours ago and another in the past 5-6 hours. Pressure is currently in the range some models had at landfall. Will the baro energy sources simply "take over" from the warm core processes and keep Sandy more or less steady state? Sandy has JUST started the real intensification process. This could get VERY ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Someone asked about waves... most of the products (that I've been able to find) don't go too far into the north atlantic, if anyone knows of some, I'd love to get the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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