Guest Imperator Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Still no new tropical watches....interesting. Their latest discussion doesn't even clarify if their ever going to even issue tropical storm or hurricane watches from Delaware northward. FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Still no new tropical watches....interesting. Their latest discussion doesn't even clarify if their ever going to even issue tropical storm or hurricane watches from Delaware northward. My understanding is the NHC will not be doing this and are passing the storm over to local weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Which seems to imply Hurricane / Tropical Storm watches will never be issued even though they fit the parameters....only High Wind Watches. Watches are suppose to be issued 48 hours in advance...several models have TS force winds starting within 48 hours. My understanding is the NHC will not be doing this and are passing the storm over to local weather what the..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Which seems to imply Hurricane / Tropical Storm watches will never be issued even though they fit the parameters....only High Wind Watches. It doesn't imply, it's clearly stated. Seriously, read more and post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 sandy starting to improve her structure. You can see on water vapor some of the dry air that has been getting entrenched into the system is moving to the east. As this is occurring, convection is firing around the western eyewall and it LOOKS to be trying to wrap around the center. Sandy is going to show us whats shes got over the next 18-24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 not unsurprisingly, recon found 957.8 extrap. Some strengthening probably occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't blame the NHC for doing it this way. This thing isn't going to have even a remotely-tropical structure as it nears the coast, and NHC products aren't designed for a 1,000-mi-wide system without a core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Isn't there a hurricane force wind warning product as well? This is needed for extratropical systems scientifically. But it seems that this discussion is similar to the one regarding whether tornado warning or tornado emergency is most effective for the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't blame the NHC for doing it this way. This thing isn't going to have even a remotely-tropical structure as it nears the coast, and NHC products aren't designed for a 1,000-mi-wide system without a core. Yea, you'd have TS warnings over like 65% of the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Latest shear/shear tendency analysis indicates that shear has weakened over the core to 25 kt or so. Not as hostile as yesterday's 40 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Latest shear/shear tendency analysis indicates that shear has weakened over the core to 25 kt or so. Not as hostile as yesterday's 40 kt. visually convection is trying to wrap around the center...so shes improving it seems. http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&isingle=multiple&itype=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yea, you'd have TS warnings over like 65% of the eastern seaboard. So what, now you have high wind warnings over 65% of the eastern seaboard? Does High Wind Warning carry the same impact as tropical storm warning or hurricane warning? Tell an ordinary person your under a high wind warning and see how they respond. Do the same thing except tell them it's a hurricane warning. These warnings are all about stirring the general public to action. I think in this case the strongest wording should be used, regardless of whether it's "technically" a hybrid or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The growth of Sandy is just insane... now TS winds out 520 miles and will probably continue to grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anita SnowStorm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Goes-14 is back in SRSOR GOES-14 One Minute Imagery -- SSEC cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/srsor/1080x1920_GOES_B1_RSRSO_SANDY_animated_2012301_113000_182_2012301_133200_182_X.mov Thanks for sharing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Great Zo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC is making the best decision they can, given the hand they have been dealt. The storm's primary impacts (mid-Atlantic / NYC / New England) will occur after the post-tropical transition -- I don't think anyone disagrees with that point. Because of that, NHC is going to have to end tropical cyclone products at some point while the storm is still over water. Unless NHC were to completely ignore science, to the extent of intentionally misclassifying a major weather system for a period of at least a couple days, the "keep it tropical" option is off the table. Procedurally, that leaves them with two options: 1) Issue the standard suite of tropical watches and warnings, which would force the WFOs to issue their standard suite of tropical inland products (HLS, etc.) -- and then arbitrarily force the entire eastern seaboard to switch product types in a day or two once the post-tropical transition is completed. 2) Decide ahead of time to go with WFO-based products for the duration of the event. Choosing option 2 is the simplest approach, and requires the least amount of heartburn in the critical period a day or so before Sandy hits. It also allows those who are disgruntled in the media to vent their frustrations a couple days before impact, hopefully getting it out of their systems before the situation grows more dire. Semi-related: here is NWS Directive 10-601 for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So what, now you have high wind warnings over 65% of the eastern seaboard? Does High Wind Warning carry the same impact as tropical storm warning or hurricane warning? Tell an ordinary person your under a high wind warning and see how they respond. Do the same thing except tell them it's a hurricane warning. These warnings are all about stirring the general public to action. I think in this case the strongest wording should be used, regardless of whether it's "technically" a hybrid or not. I think this argument is partially valid in terms of public awareness but I also think theres a bit of ego among our posters (and media) in the NE that they are not getting an official TS or Hurricane watch/warning. What if this storm wasn't a hurricane to begin with? Would it be given the same hype it is being given now even though it wont be a tropical system by the time it gets up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seawind Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Why are there Hurricane warnings in the Atlantic Ocean off the Northeast, but not on land... Shouldn't they be Storm watches/warnings instead of Hurricane warnings if it is no longer a tropical system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So what, now you have high wind warnings over 65% of the eastern seaboard? Does High Wind Warning carry the same impact as tropical storm warning or hurricane warning? Tell an ordinary person your under a high wind warning and see how they respond. Do the same thing except tell them it's a hurricane warning. These warnings are all about stirring the general public to action. I think in this case the strongest wording should be used, regardless of whether it's "technically" a hybrid or not. I have to totally agree with this...no disrespect intended to Tony, the Mt. Holly crew, or anyone at NHC. I don't think a high wind warning and a flood watch carry the same, shall we say, urgency, as a hurricane warning. Scientifically, it's the right thing to do. As far as the public is concerned, I don't think this is the best course of action in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC is making the best decision they can, given the hand they have been dealt. The storm's primary impacts (mid-Atlantic / NYC / New England) will occur after the post-tropical transition -- I don't think anyone disagrees with that point. Because of that, NHC is going to have to end tropical cyclone products at some point while the storm is still over water. Unless NHC were to completely ignore science, to the extent of intentionally misclassifying a major weather system for a period of at least a couple days, the "keep it tropical" option is off the table. Procedurally, that leaves them with two options: 1) Issue the standard suite of tropical watches and warnings, which would force the WFOs to issue their standard suite of tropical inland products (HLS, etc.) -- and then arbitrarily force the entire eastern seaboard to switch product types in a day or two once the post-tropical transition is completed. 2) Decide ahead of time to go with WFO-based products for the duration of the event. Choosing option 2 is the simplest approach, and requires the least amount of heartburn in the critical period a day or so before Sandy hits. It also allows those who are disgruntled in the media to vent their frustrations a couple days before impact, hopefully getting it out of their systems before the situation grows more dire. Semi-related: here is NWS Directive 10-601 for reference. Why not use both? I agree with not switching products but I just hope people don't look at an NHC map and say that tropical storm warnings only extend to such and such...must mean we're in the clear and all we get is a little wind and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Infrared loop show the core rebuilding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What are the latest recon SMFR, flight-level and T #s? I assume they'd be modestly higher by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 watch for a build in convection over the next 12-24 hours. Shear decreased to a reasonable 20-25 kt over the center- bad but not AS bad. Flare up of convection should wrap around the center and there should be a slow increase in convection to the east of the center where a majority of the dry air is. Right now, its dry air vs. sandy. Dry air picked up to a point where it didnt even show up on the WV, but sandy's fighting like a champ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What are the latest recon SMFR, flight-level and T #s? I assume they'd be modestly higher by now. Recon just flew north of the center and found 958.7 mb. ADT Raw T is 3.3, up from 1.5 over an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like Southern Ontario is going to get some pretty strong wind gusts. Exciting : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Airforce dropsonde had 61kt at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sandy has been really pushing the dry air out over the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow, I know they want to get out to sea but this is going to be just wild! CARNIVAL MIRACLE OCTOBER 29, 2012 October 27, 2012 We know you must be looking forward to your cruise on Monday and are anxiously awaiting news regarding the impact of Hurricane Sandy. We've been closely monitoring the storm and keeping in contact with port officials in New York. They have informed us that the port is expected to be closed on Monday. In an effort to continue with your cr... uise and keep safely away from the storm, we will now depart on Sunday, October 28. Check-in for your cruise will take place from 2:00PM to 5:00PM, and sailing is set for 6:00 PM from Pier 90. In addition, our supplies (food, beverages, etc…) were planned to be delivered on Monday, per our original schedule. Unfortunately, we were unable to make arrangements to bring them in early on Sunday. This means, in order for us to get the provisions needed by the first port, we will need to modify our itinerary. No worries, we definitely have enough supplies to last us till then. Below is the revised itinerary: DAY PORT ARRIVE DEPART SUN New York, NY 6:00 PM MON Fun Day @ Sea TUE Fun Day @ Sea WED Port Canaveral, FL 7:00 AM 6:00 PM THU Nassau, The Bahamas 11:00 AM 8:00 PM FRI Fun Day @ Sea SAT Grand Turk 8:00 AM 5:00 PM SUN Fun Day @ Sea Mon Fun Day @ Sea Tue New York, NY 8:00 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy has been really pushing the dry air out over the last few hours. That pitiful little CDO that she's built over the last few hours may just be doing its job but I don't think it will wrap itself up, from now on out it still looks like its gonna be one big spiral coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow, I know they want to get out to sea but this is going to be just wild! CARNIVAL MIRACLE OCTOBER 29, 2012 October 27, 2012 We know you must be looking forward to your cruise on Monday and are anxiously awaiting news regarding the impact of Hurricane Sandy. We've been closely monitoring the storm and keeping in contact with port officials in New York. They have informed us that the port is expected to be closed on Monday. In an effort to continue with your cr... uise and keep safely away from the storm, we will now depart on Sunday, October 28. Check-in for your cruise will take place from 2:00PM to 5:00PM, and sailing is set for 6:00 PM from Pier 90. In addition, our supplies (food, beverages, etc…) were planned to be delivered on Monday, per our original schedule. Unfortunately, we were unable to make arrangements to bring them in early on Sunday. This means, in order for us to get the provisions needed by the first port, we will need to modify our itinerary. No worries, we definitely have enough supplies to last us till then. Below is the revised itinerary: DAY PORT ARRIVE DEPART SUN New York, NY 6:00 PM MON Fun Day @ Sea TUE Fun Day @ Sea WED Port Canaveral, FL 7:00 AM 6:00 PM THU Nassau, The Bahamas 11:00 AM 8:00 PM FRI Fun Day @ Sea SAT Grand Turk 8:00 AM 5:00 PM SUN Fun Day @ Sea Mon Fun Day @ Sea Tue New York, NY 8:00 AM I saw a wave map for 8pm Monday, and south of NYC is expecting 45 foot waves. I guess that could be a "fun day @ sea" Sounds like an amusement park ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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