green tube Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So are you saying, if it weakens below hurricane status tonight, that we should call it "Once-Again-Soon-to-be-Hurricane Sandy"? I really don't follow... i think Frankenstorm pretty much covers all the bases. although it should be noted.... the storm could make landfall very close to sandy hook, NJ. sandy hooking into sandy hook..... what are the odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 You are all wrong, the media has already dubbed it "Frankenstorm" We can thank James Cisco @ HPC for that one in his Thu AM Prelim Discussion! The media ran with it from that point onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270541 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...SANDY GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...LARGE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 76.9W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SAINT AUGUSTINE * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND SANDY MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 435 MILES...705 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010 RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 72 MPH...115 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 06Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Likely to be going down to a 60kt tropical storm at 5am, as the 06z SHIPs was initialized with 60kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Likely to be going down to a 60kt tropical storm at 5am, as the 06z SHIPs was initialized with 60kt i would doubt that. pressure is going down and the storm looks better organized on WV and IR. I do not think they will rely on pure science in this situation, unlike Isaac which cause mass apathy. edit: cold front/ trough now looks to be effecting sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just after they downgrade this storm brings in the best data in hrs. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 09:29Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012 Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 14 Observation Number: 04 A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 9:11:32Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°35'N 76°48'W (28.5833N 76.8W) B. Center Fix Location: 246 miles (395 km) to the N (8°) from Nassau, Bahamas. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the SW (235°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 295° at 50kts (From the WNW at ~ 57.5mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the SW (235°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,637m (11,932ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,682m (12,080ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character (Undecoded): SPIRAL BANDING M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb O. Fix Determined By: Penetration O. Fix Level: 300mb Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph) in the southwest quadrant at 8:49:40Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 12°C (54°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (268°) from the flight level center Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 12,000 feet Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... CENTER EMBEDDED IN CONVECTION SST 26.6 in CENTER FROM AXBT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just after they downgrade this storm brings in the best data in hrs. That is kind of funny. Those data actually do kind of suggest a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't follow a whole lot of this post, but the parts I do follow are just not meteorologically accurate. Is it hurricane intensity? My guess is not quite, but it's probably pretty intense. As for passing off to HPC, absolutely not. Whether you or anyone else likes it or not, the recon data firmly suggests it is still a warm-core system, with a peak in temperature near the center. Thus, it's NHC's territory. Exactly. Not sure why this was even questioned. Sandy remains and continues to maintain tropical characteristics no matter how it 'looks'. RECON data supports that fact, period. The NHC will continue to have responsibility for Sandy until it loses ALL Tropical charateristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That is kind of funny. Those data actually do kind of suggest a hurricane. Looks like this pass she is down a few more millibars. The flag says 964mb, waiting for vortex message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The pressure dropped 6MB to 961 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The pressure dropped 6MB to 961 With spiral banding and 66.7 mph surface winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 With spiral banding and 66.7 mph surface winds This phasing is going to make this storm go off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That was quite the pass from the Air Force HH mission. Huge string of over 60 knot FL winds, numerous believable SFMR readings of hurricane force winds, and an extrapolated pressure of 958mbs. I would say Sandy is unquestionably a cat. 1 hurricane looking at this data, it's not even close actually. edit: And upgraded at 8am. That was quick, really didn't think they would pull the trigger until 11. VDM has 957mbs on the drop, 91 kts. FL and 67 kts. on the SFMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is Sandy explosively deepening due to purely tropical processes, or is it getting a boost from the trough as it transitions?? The water is only about 80F, so am having a difficult time believing a cyclone can drop 12mb in ~7 hours based on SST's alone. Maybe the process is similar to what we see in the North Atlantic where storms get their act together in colder water in a surrounding colder environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is Sandy explosively deepening due to purely tropical processes, or is it getting a boost from the trough as it transitions?? The water is only about 80F, so am having a difficult time believing a cyclone can drop 12mb in ~7 hours based on SST's alone. Maybe the process is similar to what we see in the North Atlantic where storms get their act together in colder water in a surrounding colder environment. I don't think it is the trough yet. Maybe it is the Gulf Stream for once? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Reduced shear and the fact that it's pulling away from the ULL that had been nagging it could be some of the reason for re-development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 In 4 hours, the eye temp differential has gone from 3C to 9C. Tropical indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just to point out...none of the models are close to the current pressures...we/the models are in uncharted territory....duh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just to point out...none of the models are close to the current pressures...we/the models are in uncharted territory....duh! LEK, what does the lower pressure mean for the future track, if any?? I hear some saying that it would make Sandy lean left. Others saying that it may lean right. What's your take? Thx in advance ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 BTW, for scientific purists, NHC can keep responsibility until landfall for a storm that may cause sustained hurricane force winds on the coast, as a matter of public safety, and in post season review declare it became extra-tropical while still offshore. This makes sense to me, as I certainly understand the public safety aspect of things. However, to throw another wrench into the discussion, keeping this as a "hurricane" or "tropical storm" may end up costing homeowners along the cost hundreds of thousands if not millions more dollars due to deductible wording in their homeowners policy. Being a property insurance professional (who is prepared to spend some serious time in a hotel on the east coast), the designation of hurricane or tropical storm triggers the hurricane deductible, which is usually a percentage of the overall limit of liability on the policy. So for a $300,000 home, a $1000 deductible may be normal, but they may have a 2%, 3%, or higher hurricane deductible. As a hurricane, with a 2% hurricane deductible, the out of pocket cost for the homeowner jumps to $6,000. So if the NHC continues to call it a hurricane, when it is questionable as it if it is a hurricane in all conventional frames of reference, we could see a lot of litigation between states and insurance companies after the application of the hurricane deductible begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LEK, what does the lower pressure mean for the future track, if any?? I hear some saying that it would make Sandy lean left. Others saying that it may lean right. What's your take? Thx in advance ... Honestly, not sure if it matters too much wrt track, at this point...now when it begins to become "captured", I'm learning just as much as any non-mets here...reading some of the AFD's and other products, leads me to conclude that stronger may equal increased difficulty/time to have the l/w trough capture Sandy, which (carried forward) MAY indicate a propensity for a more northern LF....but again....uncharted territory and much of the above is conjecture sprinkled with meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 120 knot jet streak crossing the Rockies right now and diving southeast. The kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Found this interesting: NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Latest sfc pressure from recon is 959mb. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Found this interesting: NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. Well, one would expect a hurricane watch considering Sandy's warm-core nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Weak baroclinic enhancement (there is a bit of a thickness gradient across the storm, believe it or not), strong divergence aloft from the jet streak to the southeast and undoubtedly some warm-core deepening from convection over the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Found this interesting: NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. doesnt that just mean right now? im not sure it means they wont ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Weak baroclinic enhancement (there is a bit of a thickness gradient across the storm, believe it or not), strong divergence aloft from the jet streak to the southeast and undoubtedly some warm-core deepening from convection over the center. Amazing to watch the outflow being sucked into the jet stream, high speed ventilation highway http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8visflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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