andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 that dry air is killing the system. was the dry air expected? reminds me of what happened with irene. It's more shear than dry air, and it's not killing it, once the baroclinic influences from the trough come into play, it'll be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's more shear than dry air, and it's not killing it, once the baroclinic influences from the trough come into play, it'll be a different story. the trough is still in the plains so idk how it's already effecting it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 the trough is still in the plains so idk how it's already effecting it right now. Lol, ONCE the baroclinic influences from the trough kick in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Appearence should improve when that front/dryline over FL gets to the SE side of Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Lol, ONCE the baroclinic influences from the trough kick in... but it's weakening at its current state. no denying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's clearly making the transition now-- look at the MW imagery. And it needs to make this transition, because it can't survive much longer as as tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 but it's weakening at its current state. no denying that. I never did deny that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Circ seems to be doing a little dance to the west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 will be interesting to see how the NHC reacts to the new models at 5 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COBRIEN85 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 will be interesting to see how the NHC reacts to the new models at 5 pm I dont have access to them, you seeing something that I cant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 will be interesting to see how the NHC reacts to the new models at 5 pm In what respect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 will be interesting to see how the NHC reacts to the new models at 5 pm Prob a slight move NE into S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well the GFS is all over the mapm (almost looked OTS for a bit), a bit more east than it was. Euro seems to want to be consistant more or less (with the exception of that hit on MD last night) with a hit on south NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If it goes Extra-Tropical will the NHC still be responsible for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If it goes Extra-Tropical will the NHC still be responsible for the storm? It will not be extra tropical at the 5PM update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think everyone should be cautious on term usage here. Remember this storm is still very much warm core... the question is where does the tropical/post-tropical line occur with respect to the type of warm seclusion that is expected with this storm? Or will there be a split difference with a subtropical declaration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If it goes Extra-Tropical will the NHC still be responsible for the storm? Good question. Yes, but it's important to listen to your local NWS as well for the full scope of impact. As their primary focus is with tropical systems , and getting out all the juicy details of the cyclone itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 72 hours doesn't look weak. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 27.3N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 28.3N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 29.7N 76.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 31.3N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 33.1N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 37.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 39.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z 41.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 966mb extrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Deeper, but winds are below hurricane strength...probably 55kts if so, and thats a bit generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It's dry, windy, and quite chilly in Miami (for our standards). In fact it has gotten windier as the day has gone on, with the winds currently as strong as they have been at any time during the Sandy's pass (outside of the heaviest outer bands). Tonight we may dip below 70 degrees for the first time since April 26th! That seems to suggest that Sandy is pulling in increasingly cooler and drier air, and that the wind field is expanding. It appears that Sandy's interaction with the subtropical jet helped to speed up extratropical transition. However, as others have said, it has not lost its warm core, and it will not lose its warm core until it is very close to landfall. When it occludes, the wind shear near the center should decrease and there is the potential for convection to surround the center again. So even with the big comma cloud, Sandy is still worthy of tropical or subtropical designation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If it goes Extra-Tropical will the NHC still be responsible for the storm? Thery'll just call it tropical. NHC can always reverse the ruling it in post season analysis. Irene lost 10-15knts and was downgraded to a hurricane last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I agree they will keep in tropical until landfall. You dont want to stop issuing advisories on a strengthening storm on approach to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 63kt on SFMR with one of the NOAA planes, so at least for now we should see it remain a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 One of the two NOAA planes is in the band north of the center with a lot of dropsondes being used. One had 34kt at the surface/44kt at 72m at 31.9N 70.1W at 7:20, ~450nm away from the 8pm center location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 i'm thinking what NHC might do is at some point make sandy a sub-tropical storm/hurricane to keep it in their hands and keep public awareness up, while putting out of the signals of a transformation going on to make it extra-tropical. the phase diagrams from several models (as seen in other threads), are saying mainly warm core. but the image of the storm on satellite and from some of the reports are saying otherwise. so from a logistic and public standpoint, it eventually will probably their best way to balance everything out. it may cause people like me to have to explain the difference in that classification, but i'll do that to keep the awareness up for what will still be quite nasty, no matter what technical form. mind you that's my thoughts, not sure about anyone else's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00Z Observations Nice, I like how it weakened to 993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Likely as a result of the heavy sampling in the band well North of the center, the NHC increased the range of tropical storm force winds with this advisory from 275 to 415 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah, it's dry air, this is not going to be changed by dry air as a normal TC would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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