Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The transition has to extra tropical is underway. Sandy is still a formidable cyclone and the 'appearance' will likely be rather impressive over the next several days. Gale force winds extend well away from the center will expand in the days ahead. Thanks.It looks like a drumstick to be honest. AT what point does the NHC make that declaration that it is sub/extra tropical...and do you think it will happen sooner than on their track map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not sure I follow. Sorry was half awake. Feel like some people would under prepare if people call it a noreaster. I understand your reasoning behind calling it that however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sorry was half awake. Feel like some people would under prepare if people call it a noreaster. I understand your reasoning behind calling it that however. Yes and no. Natives from NY/NJ know the implications of serious nor'easters. Honestly, I think a number of nor'easters we had in the 90s (December '92, March '93 etc.) and in recent years (March '10?) were worse than any tropical system we have had up here, including Irene. Then again, I don't live on the ocean, just near Jamaica Bay in Queens, where the worst we deal with are streets that become shallow rivers in major storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 URNT12 KNHC 261336 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 26/13:21:50Z B. 26 deg 32 min N 076 deg 55 min W C. 700 mb 2843 m D. 62 kt E. 310 deg 60 nm F. 033 deg 68 kt G. 310 deg 89 nm H. 972 mb I. 9 C / 3109 m J. 14 C / 3105 m K. 12 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF309 1018A SANDY OB 12 MAX FL WIND 73 KT N QUAD 12:34:30Z Convective band 30-80nm Northwest of center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Winds gusting over 50mph along the East Central Florida coast within the past hour including 56mph at MLB just after 9AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy already looks sub-tropical to me, large gale radius with the bands mostly removed from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy already looks sub-tropical to me, large gale radius with the bands mostly removed from the center. Assume an earlier subtropical conversion, what does that mean for intensity downstream? Faster phase=lower pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Assume an earlier subtropical conversion, what does that mean for intensity downstream? Faster phase=lower pressure? This is about on schedule, models have been showing Sandy attaining a sub-tropical structure in the Bahamas for awhile now. Probably going to begin intensifying again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is about on schedule, models have been showing Sandy attaining a sub-tropical structure in the Bahamas for awhile now. Probably going to begin intensifying again. I think the intensity question posed was about pressure falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Large area of ice-scattering on the left flank of the low-level vortex which extends northeastward across a large area ahead of the storm. You can also see hints of a cold front now with isolated cells indicating higher 91 GHz values south east of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 11 am forecast track. Shows Sandy as Post-Tropical inland with sustained winds of hurricane force..lol. I think thats the first time I have ever seen that for a storm making landfall in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 11:00 AM NHC Discussion STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION. USING A BLEND OF FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AT LEAST SLIGHT WEAKENING. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS VERY LIKELY DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES. BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL AT 96 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION. REGARDLESS...WHETHER SANDY IS OFFICIALLY TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL AT LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON THE IMPACTS. LATEST FIXES FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION WITH THE CENTER APPEARING TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWARD. THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIG AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72 HOURS. THE FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART OF THE U.S. EAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is there a feeling that it will go extra/post tropical much before the NHC prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mods, do you think it is about time to set up our "Tracking Sandy" fixed thread with all the different obs and overlays? Now that the storm is off Florida it seems that would be a useful product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 11:00 AM NHC Discussion STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION. USING A BLEND OF FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AT LEAST SLIGHT WEAKENING. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS VERY LIKELY DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES. BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL AT 96 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION. REGARDLESS...WHETHER SANDY IS OFFICIALLY TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL AT LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON THE IMPACTS. I have real-time maps that illustrate this nicely. Shading is TRMM3B42 rain rates, multicolored contours are 850 hPa cyclonic vorticity, and vectors are total 200 hPa winds. You can see strong southwesterly upper-level winds superimposed over the low-level vortex of Sandy. As a result, most of the stronger rains are to the northeast of the low-level vortex. Link to this: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/u850/total/atlantic.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 11 am forecast track. Shows Sandy as Post-Tropical inland with sustained winds of hurricane force..lol. I think thats the first time I have ever seen that for a storm making landfall in the US. Im sure there have been many nor'easters with hurricane force winds/gusts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's a pretty sharp cut to the NW. Usually doesn't work out that way in the end. Gotta be one helluva block! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's a pretty sharp cut to the NW. Usually doesn't work out that way in the end. Gotta be one helluva block! This will be interesting to watch, whether it meanders and moves slowly, or cuts to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Im sure there have been many nor'easters with hurricane force winds/gusts/ Yeah, but nor'easters don't head due west and landfall on the coast pushing water in with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wonder if we can draw some comparisons to this storm: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1992_nor%27easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18Z 850 mb Observations 18Z 500 mb Observations 18Z 300 mb Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's a pretty sharp cut to the NW. Usually doesn't work out that way in the end. Gotta be one helluva block! It sure is a helluva block. Load up 30 frames here and watch the retrograde begin under the upper level ridge. You can see the trough out west sharpening dramatically in response. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhewv.html There was a westward moving shortwave over Ireland yesterday that is now half-way across the north Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wonder if we can draw some comparisons to this storm: http://en.wikipedia....1992_nor'easter Draw all the comparisons you want but that storm was not a former hurricane phasing with another piece of the jet moving out of the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC should try to put more emphasis on the hybrid aspect....instead of the weakening aspect. Once the media notices the hurricane has weakened...they think it's over.. Hybrids are a whole other breed.. example : USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS should also include - USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE WEAKENING IN ITS CURRENT TROPICAL STATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 that dry air is killing the system. was the dry air expected? reminds me of what happened with irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Read my post just before yours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Read my post just before yours... is it already transitioning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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