Riptide Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Looking good on visible. How much will its impact with Cuba effect the strength of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The 00z ECMWF is a stark contract to the rest of the guidance in the short term now, forecasting TD18 to become a formidable tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours. Given the current convective organization, I think its becoming increasingly likely that there might be a more substancial system than a mere gyre as the system traverses the Caribbean. This type of genesis has been eerily similar to the way Wilma (2005) developed in 2005 within a gyre like disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The 00z ECMWF is a stark contract to the rest of the guidance in the short term now, forecasting TD18 to become a formidable tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours. Given the current convective organization, I think its becoming increasingly likely that there might be a more substancial system than a mere gyre as the system traverses the Caribbean. This type of genesis has been eerily similar to the way Wilma (2005) developed in 2005 within a gyre like disturbance. I agree, though of course the NHC is being typically conservative with their intensity forecast. Considering convective organisation as you mentioned as well as the exceptional atmospheric conditions, TD 18 could easily be a hurricane within 48 hours. As far as track goes, I tend to agree with Adam in that a maritimes track... especially the western end of the maritimes... is most likely at this point. I'd say out to sea and a SC/NC/VA hit have about equal chances at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 HPC Is NOT ignoring the Euro! PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 959 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED ONE-PART 00Z/22 ECMWF AND TWO-PARTS 00Z/22 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THERE ARE TWO MAJOR FEATURES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE INFLUENCING THE FLOW- THE TROPICAL LOW EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD TO THE BAHAMAS, AND THE AMPLIFYING POLAR JET OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. JUST HOW THESE FORCES INTERACT IS CRUCIAL, BUT AT THE TIME RANGE AT HAND, PREDICTING THEIR DANCE IS DICEY AT BEST. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE INCREASINGLY HYBRID CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST, THOUGH NOT AS FAR OUT TO SEA AS THE GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS. WILL COORDINATE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERIOR IS CONSIDERABLE, WITH MUCH OF THE NATION COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY. WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MARITIME POLAR AIR, WITH A MIXTURE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CISCO Sounds about right in the middle of Noreaster27's its definitly going way out to sea and some of the doom mega low talk in the NE subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GFS to 108, stronger and a bit west from 06Z. Trough a little sharper over the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GFS to 108, stronger and a bit west from 06Z. Trough a little sharper over the US. That's just the primer for the flatter shortwave to pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Looks like the 12z GFS is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 OK, GFS still a fish pretty far out. However, it takes longer to do so, it is actually pretty close to a phase for a while, and it changed how it handled the US trough considerably. Now if the Euro and GGEM hold serve, my confidence in a "doom" scenario will rise, not to likely but from unlikely to a puncher's chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The 00z ECMWF is a stark contract to the rest of the guidance in the short term now, forecasting TD18 to become a formidable tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours. Given the current convective organization, I think its becoming increasingly likely that there might be a more substancial system than a mere gyre as the system traverses the Caribbean. This type of genesis has been eerily similar to the way Wilma (2005) developed in 2005 within a gyre like disturbance. I didn't want to say Wilma and get flamed for suggesting this will be another Wilma, but it looks much like Wilma and Mitch did at tropical storm status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I didn't want to say Wilma and get flamed for suggesting this will be another Wilma, but it looks much like Wilma and Mitch did at tropical storm status. It's got 54 hrs before it hits Cuba. It needs to pull a Humberto followed by a Wilma if it's gonna be a CAT5. I'm going with a conservative minimal CAT2 but CAT3 could be done with with a small core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Recon will be in the depression in a little while. I wouldn't be shocked to see this at 45-50mph before the mission ends tonight. Satellite appearance shows the system getting together very nicely with hints of a small core forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I didn't want to say Wilma and get flamed for suggesting this will be another Wilma, but it looks much like Wilma and Mitch did at tropical storm status. It's got 54 hrs before it hits Cuba. It needs to pull a Humberto followed by a Wilma if it's gonna be a CAT5. I'm going with a conservative minimal CAT2 but CAT3 could be done with with a small core. My Wilma comment was alluding to its genesis characteristics. I by no means suggest this will become a CAT5 or even a Major Hurricane. The NHC has mentioned that RI probabilities are substantially above normal, so it wouldn't surprise me to see rapid development of some sort, but major hurricane intensity is certainty at the upper echelon of probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 From the 2pm adv with hurricane hunters on their way: A HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 My Wilma comment was alluding to its genesis characteristics. I by no means suggest this will become a CAT5 or even a Major Hurricane. The NHC has mentioned that RI probabilities are substantially above normal, so it wouldn't surprise me to see rapid development of some sort, but major hurricane intensity is certainty at the upper echelon of probabilities. I wouldn't accuse you of calling for a CAT5 unless you very explicitly did so. I've been listening to people compare setups to their favorite storms for years and done so myself for plenty of times. I even give Tip the benefit of the doubt sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 OK, GFS still a fish pretty far out. However, it takes longer to do so, it is actually pretty close to a phase for a while, and it changed how it handled the US trough considerably. Now if the Euro and GGEM hold serve, my confidence in a "doom" scenario will rise, not to likely but from unlikely to a puncher's chance. Totally agree with this, particularly with how the GFS has changed its evolution of the trough. UK appears to have a trended a bit east with the system toward the end of the period, but it overall looks a hair deeper with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Totally agree with this, particularly with how the GFS has changed its evolution of the trough. UK appears to have a trended a bit east with the system toward the end of the period, but it overall looks a hair deeper with the trough. Got a map of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro backed off a lot on the depth of the NOAM trough, nothing like the GGEM. It is a lot closer in than the GFS, but it is a fish on this run. The big thing here is can we get a ridge to build in the West- the GGEM and old Euro said yes, but the new Euro just keeps the flow too progressive. Based on this, I am still leaning to the fish scenario. EDIT: I spoke too soon, the Euro is showing a much later phase a bit farther east and north, but still a pretty big deal for the areas from NJ north. So I am back to "who the hell knows". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GGEM holds serve....nasty time for the Jersey shore: It's the only one left in the Superstorm camp now, chances looking a little less likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's the only one left in the Superstorm camp now, chances looking a little less likely now. Yep....although, I agree with most of the opinions on the board here....this (albeit close to being VERY interesting) is a close miss of something special....but, a lot of the upstream evolution (which is obviously important) still needs to be modeled more consistantly over the entire suite, before we "unperk" our ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro finally phases at 216 looks like a Boston hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro pulls the hybrid remnants of 18L NW into the 40/70 benchmark. Exceptionally strong system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro finally phases at 216 looks like a Boston hit It's not gonna happen, but that's an epic model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 926 MB? I can't even... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 926 MB? I can't even... Euro??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 shades of 1938... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro??? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I zoomed in on the EC to give a better perspective of the Euro's output: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 For posterity That is just...I can't even....WDF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Recon having some trouble fixing a center...but it looks it continued to drift SW and it's a hair below 13N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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