LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 BTW, the current NHC track basically parallels the gulf stream (just to the east in spots). Kind of a wild card as ET transition takes place, just from the standpoint that there are inherent baroclinic factors present that are not normally present where ET transitions "usually" take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Anyone have the latest microwave pass? When does recon head back in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Anyone have the latest microwave pass? When does recon head back in? Recon is in now at about 22.0N and 74.7W @ 10,000 feet. flight level winds of 78 mph at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 11 am package Just offshore of Atlantic City on Tuesday morning - I note the "S" inside the dot alongside the Jersey coast. Appears that the NHC and NWS are tipping their hand a little, and that they intend to keep "Sandy" all the way to landfall in some form. A very good move IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I asked a question earlier why flight level winds were not being mixed down, and it was apparently deleted by a storm mode mod. It wasn't a stupid question, and the disco makes reference. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF SANDY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE AFTER MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA. THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN IMAGERY OR IN OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT...AND THE CDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED ON THE WESTERN SIDE BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER... AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY REMAINS QUITE STRONG...WITH A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF 126 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 964 MB. DATA FROM THE SFMR AND DROPSONDES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL ARE NOT CURRENTLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THE TYPICAL RATIO...SO A BLEND OF THE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like some inner-core reorganisation may be going on based on satellite pictures and recon reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like some inner-core reorganisation may be going on based on satellite pictures and recon reports. Combined with the weird fluctuation that both the 12z NAM and GFS have Sandy practically thrown westward in about 24 hours.....and current satellite animation... Looks like it's already starting to go a little 'frankenstorm' ish...or is it just me ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I was thinking from the visible loop that it might have taken a little jog to the west already, maybe I'm just wishing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Combined with the weird fluctuation that both the 12z NAM and GFS have Sandy practically thrown westward in about 24 hours.....and current satellite animation... Looks like it's already starting to go a little 'frankenstorm' ish...or is it just me ? No, it's still a solid hurricane. I'm not sure what motion would have to do with this. It is good to finally see the GFS have a solution within the relative area that the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The last frame on the float that I saw made it look like Sandy was being thrown westward, either that or convection was being built there, I'm not certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I was thinking from the visible loop that it might have taken a little jog to the west already, maybe I'm just wishing... You can compare the current image to my above post (511) with the sat from an hour ago. It looks like it is mostly just moved north and filled in on the west side. Tiny, tiny smidge W of N though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Really interesting watching the interaction of Sandy and mid-level flow around the cutoff to Sandy's west. If you study the visible and water vapor imagery, you will notice quite clearly that Sandy's core is being driven by the flow in the mid-levels around that feature. The GFDL and the HWRF are all over that feature as the reasoning behind Sandy's initial turn back towards the NNW-NW before the incoming trough. That turn should be occurring any time now as it is becoming increasingly noticeable that mid-level cloud canopy is expanding or being pulled from the western semi-circle of Sandy's circulation towards Florida as we should expect with the mid-level steering flow turning back towards Florida around the NW side of the cutoff. In short, we should start seeing a steady bend back towards the NNW to NW any time now. Already looks like the trend of just east of due N has ceased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Either that's a western eye-wall from h*ll... or something else. The last couple frames just don't appear purely tropical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I asked a question earlier why flight level winds were not being mixed down, and it was apparently deleted by a storm mode mod. It wasn't a stupid question, and the disco makes reference. Convective disruption from land interaction may be a cause. Also, we had a storm undergoing RI during landfall, it's possible that the winds aloft continued to rise for some time in response to PGF and the storm has not had time to readjust since filling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Either that's a western eye-wall from h*ll... or something else. The last couple frames just don't appear purely tropical... It's part of the CDO. This is very much fully tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Either that's a western eye-wall from h*ll... or something else. The last couple frames just don't appear purely tropical... ??? Just your imagination, The ML is interacting with Sandy, thus a move to the west is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 CDO has taken on more of an egg shape the past few hours. It appears that wind shear is beginning to have an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 CDO has taken on more of an egg shape the past few hours. It appears that wind shear is beginning to have an effect. That dry air in association with the ULL to the west is getting closer and closer to the CDO... now almost right next to it. This will no doubt affect Sandy's intensity for the next 24 hours until Sandy can get away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That dry air in association with the ULL to the west is getting closer and closer to the CDO... now almost right next to it. This will no doubt affect Sandy's intensity for the next 24 hours until Sandy can get away from it. Yeah, once that ULL and Sandy separate, you most likely will see the subtle westerly shift to the current northerly direction of movement that many of the models show over the Bahamas, by a few degrees I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 CDO has taken on more of an egg shape the past few hours. It appears that wind shear is beginning to have an effect. Somewhat surprisingly latest dropsonde is 963 mb, 4 mb lower than the last drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 251749 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 25/17:06:10Z B. 23 deg 18 min N 075 deg 24 min W C. 700 mb 2783 m D. 84 kt E. 045 deg 17 nm F. 144 deg 109 kt G. 045 deg 20 nm H. 963 mb I. 8 C / 3048 m J. 18 C / 3049 m K. 10 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF308 0618A SANDY OB 26 MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 16:59:00Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 72 KT NW QUAD 17:09:30Z MAX FL TEMP 20 C 320 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR RADAR PRESENTATION POOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The IR presentation looks terrible-- like it's getting smushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Conflicting signals in the data. Pressure still dropping and eye temp up to 18C at 700mb, but disrupted symmetry due to wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Kinda big envelope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Conflicting signals in the data. Pressure still dropping and eye temp up to 18C at 700mb, but disrupted symmetry due to wind shear. The outflow in most quadrants is still highly impressive and the SSTs are warm enough. With Sandy's convective blowups to the west attempt to block the dry air/shear, it is certainly plausible that Sandy could still be strengthening slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The IR presentation looks terrible-- like it's getting smushed. There's a couple reasons from what I can tell. The Greater Antilles are blocking the inflow on the south side causing big convective complexes well away from the center and deforming the storm a bit. The other reason is Sandy is just to the east of a trough in the sub-tropical jet, so it's experiencing southerly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 2 planes heading in right now. Noaa as well as AF. Interesting to see how she's fairing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 5 pm package brings it ashore across Spray Beach and just S of Stafford Township late Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wrong thread for the above, but if the comment stands, cone is your friend, that's all true of the center line of the NHC forecast but probably the real weighted consensus is a bit east of that, I would say landfall closer to NYC like Asbury Park-Sandy Hook and that day 5 position in latest advisory at 40.5N 75W just as likely to be 40.6 N 74.2 W across the Hudson from Manhattan. One trend that is fairly obvious is that the Roger Smith overprediction index has dropped from 90% of forum agrees to 50.1% of forum agrees and now even CNN is sounding as or more dire than me (Chad Myers at 5 pm eastern time said "possible billion dollar impact and days of power outages, 90 mph winds in the megalopolis") so all I can say is, you heard it here first, check out my track from page three of this thread. Just saying this because rather tired of the unsupported criticism after all I was doing was to inspect the models and give a reasoned overview, what else are we supposed to be doing anyway? Sorry if it sounds like a rant, but my concern has always been that this is a potential major impact storm. I think this is now obvious to many rather than few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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