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Hurricane Sandy - LIVE - Meteorological Discussion


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I asked a question earlier why flight level winds were not being mixed down, and it was apparently deleted by a storm mode mod. It wasn't a stupid question, and the disco makes reference.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF SANDY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS

IMPRESSIVE AFTER MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA. THE EYE IS NO LONGER

APPARENT IN IMAGERY OR IN OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT...AND THE

CDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED ON THE WESTERN SIDE BY

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...

AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY

REMAINS QUITE STRONG...WITH A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF

126 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 964 MB. DATA FROM THE SFMR AND

DROPSONDES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL ARE NOT

CURRENTLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THE TYPICAL RATIO...SO A

BLEND OF THE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY.

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Looks like some inner-core reorganisation may be going on based on satellite pictures and recon reports.

Combined with the weird fluctuation that both the 12z NAM and GFS have Sandy practically thrown westward in about 24 hours.....and current satellite animation... Looks like it's already starting to go a little 'frankenstorm' ish...or is it just me ?

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Combined with the weird fluctuation that both the 12z NAM and GFS have Sandy practically thrown westward in about 24 hours.....and current satellite animation... Looks like it's already starting to go a little 'frankenstorm' ish...or is it just me ?

No, it's still a solid hurricane. I'm not sure what motion would have to do with this.

It is good to finally see the GFS have a solution within the relative area that the Euro does.

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I was thinking from the visible loop that it might have taken a little jog to the west already, maybe I'm just wishing...

You can compare the current image to my above post (511) with the sat from an hour ago. It looks like it is mostly just moved north and filled in on the west side. Tiny, tiny smidge W of N though.

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Really interesting watching the interaction of Sandy and mid-level flow around the cutoff to Sandy's west. If you study the visible and water vapor imagery, you will notice quite clearly that Sandy's core is being driven by the flow in the mid-levels around that feature. The GFDL and the HWRF are all over that feature as the reasoning behind Sandy's initial turn back towards the NNW-NW before the incoming trough. That turn should be occurring any time now as it is becoming increasingly noticeable that mid-level cloud canopy is expanding or being pulled from the western semi-circle of Sandy's circulation towards Florida as we should expect with the mid-level steering flow turning back towards Florida around the NW side of the cutoff. In short, we should start seeing a steady bend back towards the NNW to NW any time now. Already looks like the trend of just east of due N has ceased.

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I asked a question earlier why flight level winds were not being mixed down, and it was apparently deleted by a storm mode mod. It wasn't a stupid question, and the disco makes reference.

Convective disruption from land interaction may be a cause. Also, we had a storm undergoing RI during landfall, it's possible that the winds aloft continued to rise for some time in response to PGF and the storm has not had time to readjust since filling.

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CDO has taken on more of an egg shape the past few hours. It appears that wind shear is beginning to have an effect.

That dry air in association with the ULL to the west is getting closer and closer to the CDO... now almost right next to it. This will no doubt affect Sandy's intensity for the next 24 hours until Sandy can get away from it.

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That dry air in association with the ULL to the west is getting closer and closer to the CDO... now almost right next to it. This will no doubt affect Sandy's intensity for the next 24 hours until Sandy can get away from it.

Yeah, once that ULL and Sandy separate, you most likely will see the subtle westerly shift to the current northerly direction of movement that many of the models show over the Bahamas, by a few degrees I'd imagine.

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000

URNT12 KNHC 251749

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012

A. 25/17:06:10Z

B. 23 deg 18 min N

075 deg 24 min W

C. 700 mb 2783 m

D. 84 kt

E. 045 deg 17 nm

F. 144 deg 109 kt

G. 045 deg 20 nm

H. 963 mb

I. 8 C / 3048 m

J. 18 C / 3049 m

K. 10 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF308 0618A SANDY OB 26

MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 16:59:00Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 72 KT NW QUAD 17:09:30Z

MAX FL TEMP 20 C 320 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR

RADAR PRESENTATION POOR

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Conflicting signals in the data. Pressure still dropping and eye temp up to 18C at 700mb, but disrupted symmetry due to wind shear.

The outflow in most quadrants is still highly impressive and the SSTs are warm enough. With Sandy's convective blowups to the west attempt to block the dry air/shear, it is certainly plausible that Sandy could still be strengthening slightly.

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The IR presentation looks terrible-- like it's getting smushed.

There's a couple reasons from what I can tell. The Greater Antilles are blocking the inflow on the south side causing big convective complexes well away from the center and deforming the storm a bit. The other reason is Sandy is just to the east of a trough in the sub-tropical jet, so it's experiencing southerly shear.

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Wrong thread for the above, but if the comment stands, cone is your friend, that's all true of the center line of the NHC forecast but probably the real weighted consensus is a bit east of that, I would say landfall closer to NYC like Asbury Park-Sandy Hook and that day 5 position in latest advisory at 40.5N 75W just as likely to be 40.6 N 74.2 W across the Hudson from Manhattan.

One trend that is fairly obvious is that the Roger Smith overprediction index has dropped from 90% of forum agrees to 50.1% of forum agrees and now even CNN is sounding as or more dire than me (Chad Myers at 5 pm eastern time said "possible billion dollar impact and days of power outages, 90 mph winds in the megalopolis") so all I can say is, you heard it here first, check out my track from page three of this thread. Just saying this because rather tired of the unsupported criticism after all I was doing was to inspect the models and give a reasoned overview, what else are we supposed to be doing anyway?

Sorry if it sounds like a rant, but my concern has always been that this is a potential major impact storm. I think this is now obvious to many rather than few.

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