dan88 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 90kt with 5am still, forecast shows slow weakening during the next couple days and a due North motion between days 4 and 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Andros Island very sparsely populated. On the Florida hourly reports, did you know Settlement Point is in northwest Bahamas? This looks very dangerous now that the actual hurricane is up and running. Would not be surprised if it reaches cat-3 or even cat-4 during next 48h. RGEM 06z will have a new update on next 48h, will check that for any new wrinkles. Surprised you aren't chasing this (would suggest BOS then redeploy west if necessary) Josh -- it could be an epic storm. Actually on the 06Z/18Z runs, RGEM goes out to 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The 5 am Discussion is very interesting Re: the landfall intensity in Cuba-- and why they kept it below Cat 3. More and more, it seems like those SFMR readings are a reality check on the flight-level data-- as the flight-level data alone would have suggested 100 or even 105 kt at the surface (for a strengthening, deep-tropical system with strong convection). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The 5 am Discussion is very interesting Re: the landfall intensity in Cuba-- and why they kept it below Cat 3. More and more, it seems like those SFMR readings are a reality check on the flight-level data-- as the flight-level data alone would have suggested 100 or even 105 kt at the surface (for a strengthening, deep-tropical system with strong convection). Sure different than the 1985 130 mph advisory of Gloria just east of Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sure different than the 1985 130 mph advisory of Gloria just east of Atlantic City. I remember that. And I remember the 12 noon advisory, indicating landfall on Long Island's S shore with 120-mph winds. The advisory position was just S of me, so that I was in the N eyewall, and while it was the worst storm I'd ever been in up to that point, I was like, "This is not 120 mph." Boy, have we learned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Cloud tops did warm in last IR frame, IMHO may be slightly weaker than that the NHC has it at 5 am. Have to see how Sandy responds once fully back over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like Sandy has a couple of miles before heading back out, should be a matter of time before RI occurs. As long as it slows down, this should strengthen, and turn NW-ward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Recon already on the way, they're about 250 miles from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 There was just an official report of 84-kt sustained winds and gusts to 103 kt at Punta Lucrecia (near Holguín, on the N coast of Cuba) as of 09Z. http://www.ain.cu/20...-Sandy-cuba.htm La estación meteorológica de Punta Lucrecia, en la provincia de Holguín reportó a las cinco de esta mañana vientos sostenidos del sudeste de hasta 155 kilómetros por hora, con rachas de 190 kilómetros por hora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Cuba did some work to her. Interested to hear the 8am update. Looks like some deeper convection on her western side is ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 8 am 21.6 N 75.5 W N at 10 105 mph 967 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Very impressive. Flight level winds of 120+ knots. 000 URNT15 KNHC 251155 AF308 0618A SANDY HDOB 23 20121025 114600 2137N 07535W 6968 02883 9677 +154 +088 325009 013 017 003 03 114630 2138N 07533W 6972 02862 9658 +162 +088 026011 014 024 006 03 114700 2138N 07532W 6970 02858 9637 +171 +088 077010 016 028 004 03 114730 2137N 07530W 6972 02845 9639 +161 +079 144014 016 028 005 03 114800 2136N 07528W 6961 02855 9651 +147 +073 194014 016 030 004 00 114830 2136N 07527W 6968 02847 9648 +152 +070 215021 024 030 003 00 114900 2134N 07525W 6974 02840 9650 +151 +069 226028 032 033 004 00 114930 2133N 07524W 6965 02850 9654 +151 +064 230041 045 052 004 00 115000 2132N 07522W 6967 02860 9657 +155 +057 227054 056 069 002 00 115030 2131N 07520W 6967 02865 9661 +159 +063 225059 060 075 001 00 115100 2130N 07519W 6965 02879 9674 +159 +061 221067 073 077 001 00 115130 2129N 07517W 6974 02879 9684 +159 +058 222067 072 084 002 00 115200 2128N 07516W 6963 02904 9708 +146 +071 222080 086 085 001 00 115230 2127N 07514W 6985 02887 9745 +122 +097 225114 126 082 004 00 115300 2126N 07513W 6977 02915 9782 +106 +088 224109 126 080 004 00 115330 2125N 07511W 6967 02938 9814 +092 +092 223105 108 076 007 00 115400 2124N 07510W 6968 02957 9829 +095 +078 219095 103 070 006 00 115430 2123N 07508W 6967 02964 9830 +101 +080 219089 092 068 007 00 115500 2122N 07507W 6959 02985 9840 +095 +092 221086 088 066 007 00 115530 2121N 07505W 6975 02972 //// +071 //// 216084 085 062 010 01 Lets see what this can do now that it's back over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Eye is closed and flight levels winds are in the high Cat 4 range. Let's see if any can mix down today. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 12:15Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308) Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012 Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 6 Observation Number: 08 A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 11:47:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°38'N 75°31'W (21.6333N 75.5167W) B. Center Fix Location: 113 miles (182 km) to the N (10°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,816m (9,239ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 51° at 58kts (From the NE at ~ 66.7mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Closed M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped) M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 330° to 150° (NNW to SSE) M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Wind Outbound: 126kts (~ 145.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 11:53:00Z Maximum Flight Level Wind: 126kts (~ 145.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 11:53:00Z Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 11:57:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 A dropsonde in the eyewall showed 130kt Fl winds at around 700mb. 83kt at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like the eye is clearing out again and convection is again increasing in all 4 quadrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GOES-13 was just placed into RSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GOES-13 was just placed into RSO. Great, thanks for the heads up! Honestly 18 hours ago, I would have never considered Sandy to come off two land interactions looking like she does....probably something to be said for uniform perpendicular transits across land masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just eyeballing this, it would appear that the movement has been NNE to NE since before it hit Jamaica. Is Sandy further east than it was thought it would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like she came off Cuba just in time. Inner core is intact and western eyewall convection is re-firing. Looks a little vulnerable to the dry air on the west/southwest side, though. Time will tell if that fresh hot tower can "seal off" that side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pressure down to 962.9 on this pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just eyeballing this, it would appear that the movement has been NNE to NE since before it hit Jamaica. Is Sandy further east than it was thought it would be? It does look to be east of the forecast points. I'm not sure whether this N-NNE motion was anticipated but I think Sanday is expected to slow down and take a turn later tonight to the NNW. Not really sure if this would affect the track later on. Not an official forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looking at the hurricane hunter plots and where the NHC had it at 8am, the lowest pressure plots were to the west of the NHC 75.5 plot. I'm seeing 76.1 - 76.3 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Latest dropsonde drop had a sfc pressure of 965mb along with 14kt sfc winds, so Sandy is most likely intensifying once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wind shear analysis and satellite suggest some southwesterly shear over the cyclone (at the very least, some outflow restriction there), but it is also being assisted by the TUTT to its west, which looks to be providing some forcing for ascent via broad upper level divergence over the region. Will be interesting to see how this affects Sandy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 75.5W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 11 am package Just offshore of Atlantic City on Tuesday morning - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ok. Zeroing in on NJ coast. For those interested. http://www.examiner.com/article/sandy-to-take-aim-on-mid-atlantic-northeast-coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ok. Zeroing in on NJ coast. For those interested. http://www.examiner....northeast-coast And "Sandy (4th of July, Asbury Park)" will be stuck in my head for the next week if that path came to fruition. Looking nicer as the morning progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Did anyone else notice the 135kt wind reading at 900mb from the second dropsonde in the NE eyewall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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